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Russia 2023: Outlook & Scenarios

  • ID: 4801601
  • Country Profile
  • Region: Russia
  • 47 Pages
  • Frontier Strategy Group
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Get Closer to Your Customers and Partners to Win in the Market

Companies need to develop a consistent, realistic internal view of the Russian market’s risks and opportunities to plan effectively for the next five years. This report explains how.

Russia will achieve only moderate, though consistent, economic growth over the next five years as the government avoids undertaking structural reforms that could drive stronger growth. Instead, public spending will rise minimally to boost the economy now that macroeconomic stability has been achieved.

Public and private demand will improve moderately in the coming years, though higher taxes will restrain a stronger pick-up while geopolitical tensions threaten a heightened risk of sanctions. Multinational companies need to develop a consistent, realistic internal view of the Russian market’s risks and opportunities to plan effectively for the next five years.

What you will learn

  • What does the trajectory of Russia’s business environment look like
  • Which scenarios should executives be monitoring for their Russia business
  • What are the key events that could disrupt Russia’s future outlook

What you will receive

  • Access to the 47-page PDF report
  • Exclusive email update covering emerging markets business topics
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Executive Summary

Understanding Russia’s Trajectory

  • Russia Remains a Top EMEA Opportunity
  • Russia Should Remain in Global Portfolios
  • Political Environment Will Tighten Further
  • Foreign Relations Support Stability
  • Economic Stability Will be Maintained
  • Only Policy Changes Can Improve Growth
  • Economic Plan Focuses on Fiscal Spending
  • Economic Plan in Action
  • Key Actions to Take for the Long Term

Demand Outlook

  • GDP will Grow Modestly Through 2023
  • The Ruble Will Experience More Volatility
  • Consumer Demand Will Recover Slowly
  • Business Demand Will Plateau
  • Public Demand Outlook Will Improve Mildly

Operating Environment Outlook

  • The Operating Environment Will Likely Worsen
  • Rising Taxes Pose a Challenge
  • Policy Will not Encourage Investment
  • Geopolitical Tensions Will Impact Business
  • Banking Sector Improvements Ahead
  • Route to Market Will Continue to Evolve

Russia 2023: Scenarios Overview

  • Russia 2018–2023 Scenarios
  • Russia 2018–2023: Scenarios Overview
  • Base Case: Mild Growth, Mild Volatility
  • Upside: Cautious Recovery
  • Downside: Low Oil Prices, More Sanctions

Key Events That Could Disrupt Russia’s Outlook

  • Key Events Could Disrupt Russia’s Outlook
  • Disruptor 1: China Loses Control
  • Disruptor 2: Oil Price Rebound
  • Disruptor 3: Sustained Oil Price Drop
  • Disruptor 4: Palace Coup
  • Disruptor 5: Major Sanctions Implemented
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