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Turkey Solar Photovoltaic (PV) Power Market Outlook 2018-2027

  • ID: 4803215
  • Report
  • Region: Turkey
  • 125 Pages
  • Inea Consulting Ltd
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This market report offers an incisive and reliable long-term overview of the photovoltaic sector of the country for the next long term period 2018 ÷ 2027. Turkey has the sixth-largest electricity market in Europe and one of the fastest-growing in the world. In view of recent cuts in FIT’s announced in Germany, Spain, France, UK, Czech Republic, Slovakia, Bulgaria and Italy, Turkey represents an interesting investment environment in South-East Europe with excellent solar irradiation.

Cumulative installed solar PV capacity in MW in the country increased at least 15-fold from 2014 to 2016 despite political uncertainty. Furthermore, Turkey's unlicensed solar PV installed capacity grew 230 percent in 2016 compared to 2015 according to the Energy Ministry and a number of fully permitted and ready to build projects is promptly growing. 2017 was a record year for Turkish solar market with approximately 1.7 GW new solar photovoltaic capacity installed. The Turkish market has excellent chances to exceed XXX GW cumulative installed capacity in the next 5 years.

The report provides a complete picture of the market situation, dynamics, current issues, and future prospects. You will find more than 120 pages of valuable information in this unique in-depth analysis of the Turkish photovoltaic market. With comprehensive market data, this report brings clear and concise insights, to help investors in their decision-making process. As 2017 was a challenging year for the photovoltaic industry, the time for taking the right decisions during 2018 and the next years is limited. A fast-changing market environment with falling module prices, requires relevant and accurate information. For your convenience, we offer an opportunity for orders with customized report content.

Reasons to buy this market report include:

  • Overview of the Turkish political and economic environment
  • Solar resource potential in Turkey
  • Financial Model and Analysis of 5 MW Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power Plant investment in Turkey (IRR, WACC, Payback, NPV, Cash Flow, etc.)
  • Over 55 charts, tables, and maps
  • Overview of Turkish photovoltaic market development 2007 ÷ 2027
  • Grid-connected photovoltaic installations
  • Future market trends and planned photovoltaic projects for 2018 ÷ 2027
  • Market prices of fully permitted and operational photovoltaic projects
  • Turkish legal and energy regulatory framework for renewable projects
  • Key companies and competitive landscape in the photovoltaic sector
  • Review of most relevant financing and supporting incentives
  • SWOT Analysis (detailed in 5 pages)

Subscription: Included in the report price is a subscription for a 1 year period with 4 quarterly updates

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FOREWORD

1 METHODOLOGY AND LIMITATIONS
1.1 Research Methodology
1.2 Limitations

2 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
2.1 Historical and Current Development Overview of Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power Market in Turkey
2.2 Turkey Solar Resource Potential
2.3 Key Stakeholders Affecting Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power Market Development in Turkey
2.4 Market Drivers and Constraints
2.5 Mandatory Engineering Measurements for Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power Projects in Turkey
2.6 Amendments in Renewable Enerrgy Sources (RES) Legislation in Turkey for Unlicensed Market Segment (< 1 MW)
2.7 Market Forecast Summary

3 TURKEY POLITICAL AND ECONOMIC ENVIRONMENT. PEST ANALYSIS
3.1 Basic Country Data
3.2 Political Climate and Ruling Party
3.3 GDP and Economic Growth
3.4 Taxes
3.4.1 VAT
3.4.2 Income and Corporate Taxes
3.4.3 The Communiqué on Monitoring Implementations of Imports (Solar Tax)

4 CENTRAL-EAST EUROPE (CEE) AND SOUTH-EAST EUROPE (SEE) POWER MARKET
4.1 General Electricity Market information
4.2 Photovoltaics (Solar PV) in Energy Sector
4.3 Single Electricity Market

5 CENTRAL-EAST EUROPE (CEE) AND SOUTH-EAST EUROPE (SEE) PHOTOVOLTAIC (SOLAR PV) POWER MARKET
5.1 Market Overview
5.2 Cumulative Installed Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Capacity and Revenue
5.3 Annual Installed Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Capacity and Revenue
5.4 Future Development Trends

6 TURKEY POWER MARKET
6.1 Electricity Transmission and Distribution
6.2 Electricity Consumption and Generation
6.3 Electricity Imports and Exports
6.4 Electricity Prices for Business and Households
6.5 Renewable Energy Sources (RES) Targets

7 TURKEY PHOTOVOLTAIC (SOLAR PV) POWER MARKET
7.1 Why Invest in Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power in Turkey?
7.2 Turkey Solar Resource Potential
7.3 Licensing Period Duration
7.4 Regional Substation Capacities for Solar PV Power Projects in Turkey
7.5 Overview of Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power Market in Turkey
7.6 Market Structure Analysis
7.7 Investment Trends and Development Roadmap
7.8 Competitive Environment in Licensed Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power Market
7.9 Competitive Environment in Unlicensed Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power Market (< 1 MW)
7.10 Profiles of Key Players and Investors in Licensed Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power Market
7.11 Profiles of Key Players and Investors in Unlicensed Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power Market (< 1 MW)
7.12 Cumulative Installed Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Capacity and Revenue
7.13 Annual Installed Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Capacity and Revenue
7.14 Market Prices for Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power Projects in Turkey in Development, Ready to Build and Operational (Grid Connected) Condition
7.15 Key Cost Structure Elements of Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power Plant in Turkey
7.16 Levelized Cost of Energy (LCOE) for Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power in Turkey
7.17 Key Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power Projects in Turkey Under Development
7.18 Mergers and Acquisitions

8 DRIVERS AND CONSTRAINTS OF PHOTOVOLTAIC (SOLAR PV) MARKET IN TURKEY. SWOT ANALYSIS
8.1 Market Drivers
8.2 Market Drivers Explained
8.3 Market Constraints
8.4 Market Constraints Explained
8.5 SWOT Analysis

9 FINANCIAL ANALYSIS OF PHOTOVOLTAIC (SOLAR PV) MARKET IN TURKEY
9.1 Financing Options of Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power Projects in Turkey
9.2 Financial Model and Analysis of 5 MW Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power Plant investment in Turkey (IRR, WACC, Payback, NPV, Cash Flow, ETC.)

10 TECHNOLOGY ANALYSIS
10.1 Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Technology Overview
10.2 Technology Trends

11 EUROPEAN RENEWABLE ENERGY POLICY LANDSCAPE
11.1 RES Regulations and EU Directives
11.1.1 Precedent EU regulations
11.1.2 Most recent EU renewable energy policy developments

12 TURKEY RENEWABLE ENERGY SOURCES (RES) LEGAL AND REGULATORY FRAMEWORK
12.1 Main Laws and Regulations
12.2 Support Schemes
12.3 Mandatory Engineering Measurements for Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power ProjectS in Turkey
12.4 Competition Regulation (Tender Procedure)
12.5 Zoning, Planning and Construction Related Authorizations
12.5.1 Zoning Plans Procedure
12.5.2 Building Permit (Construction License) Procedure
12.5.3 Operation License Procedure
12.6 Environmental Related Authorizations
12.6.1 Natura 2000 Network
12.6.2 Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) and Joint Implementation (JI)
12.7 Energy Law Authorizations
12.7.1 Power Generation Licensing and Unlicensed Power Generation Below 1 MW
12.7.2 Grid Interconnection
12.7.3 Power Off-Take
12.7.4 Feed-in tariff (FIT)
12.7.5 RES Certificates (Guarantees of Origin)
12.7.6 The Communiqué on Monitoring Implementations of Imports (Solar Tax)
12.7.7 Amendments in Renewable Energy Sources (RES) Legislation in Turkey  for Unlicensed market segment (< 1 MW)
12.8 Additional Incentives for Domestic (Local) Procurement Elements
12.9 Future Market Pricing Mechanisms

13 KEY STAKEHOLDERS AFFECTING PHOTOVOLTAIC (SOLAR PV) POWER MARKET DEVELOPMENT IN TURKEY
13.1 Government Stakeholders
13.2 Non-Government Stakeholders
13.3 Electricity Generation, Transmission System Operator (TSO) and Distribution System Operators (DSO’s)

14 CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS

15 LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS

16 REFERENCES

17 DISCLAIMER

APPENDIX I. SOLAR RESOURCE MAPS OF EUROPE AND TURKEY

List of Maps
Map 1: Where is Turkey on the World Map    
Map 2: Major Transport Corridors Passing Through Turkey    
Map 3: Turkey Regions    
Map 4: Turkey Electricity Grids Network    
Map 5: Solar Resource Map of Turkey    
Map 6: Solar Irradiation and Solar Electricity Potential for Optimally Inclined Photovoltaic Modules in Turkey    
Map 7: Hydro Power Plants of EUAS    
Map 8: Thermal Power Plants of EUAS    
Map 9: Districts Covered by TEDAS and DSO’s    
Map 10: Solar Irradiation and Solar Electricity Potential for Horizontally Mounted Photovoltaic Modules in Turkey    
Map 11: Solar Irradiation and Solar Electricity Potential for Horizontally Mounted Photovoltaic Modules in Turkey    
Map 12: Solar Irradiation and Solar Electricity Potential for Optimally Inclined Photovoltaic Modules in Europe    

List of Charts
Chart 1: Real GDP Growth for the Period 2000 ÷ 2027 (including forecast)    
Chart 2: Turkish GDP Growth Compared to EU-27 for the Period 2002 ÷ 2027 (including forecast)    
Chart 3: Corporate Tax Income in Selected Central-East Europe (CEE) and South-East Europe (SEE) Countries     
Chart 4: Physical Energy Flows Values in GW in Central-East Europe (CEE) and South-East Europe (SEE) in 2017    
Chart 5: Share of Renewables in Electricity Generation in Selected Central-East Europe (CEE) and South-East Europe (SEE) Countries, 2017 (in %)    
Chart 6: Average Base Load Electricity Price in Selected European Countries (EUR/MWh): 2008 - 2018    
Chart 7: Forecast for RES Generation Capacity by Source Type in the EU to 2020 and 2030 (in GW)   
Chart 8: Net Power Generation Added Capacities in the EU 28 in 2017 (MW)    
Chart 9: Age of Power Plants in Europe in 2017    
Chart 10: Share of New Power Generation Capacities Added in the EU 28 in 2017 (MW)   
Chart 11: Installed Power Generating Capacity per Year (MW) and Renewable Share (in %) 2000 – 2017    
Chart 12: New Installed and Decommissioned Power Generation Capacity in the EU 27 for 2017 (GW)    
Chart 13: Cumulative Installed Capacity of Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power Plants (in MW) in Central-East Europe (CEE) and South-East Europe (SEE) 2007 ÷ 2027, including forecast    
Chart 14: Cumulative Revenue of Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power Plants (in Millions USD) in Central-East Europe (CEE) and South-East Europe (SEE) 2007 ÷ 2027, including forecast    
Chart 15: Annual Installed Capacity of Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power Plants (in MW) in Central-East Europe (CEE) and South-East Europe (SEE) 2007 ÷ 2027, including forecast    
Chart 16: Annual Revenue of Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power Plants (in Millions USD) in Central-East Europe (CEE) and South-East Europe (SEE) 2007 ÷ 2027, including forecast    
Chart 17: Existing and Planned High Voltage Interconnection Power Lines of Turkey with Neighbor Countries    
Chart 18: Historical Structure of Power Market in Turkey from 1983 to 2018    
Chart 19: Share of RES electricity from Total Installed Power Capacity in Turkey in 2017    
Chart 20: Turkey Total Annual Electricity Consumption (in TWh) 2000 ÷ 2017    
Chart 21: Turkey Power Generation Capacity Breakdown by Source (Fuel) Type in 2017    
Chart 22: Electricity Imports and Exports in Turkey 2007 ÷ 2027 (in TWh) including forecast    
Chart 23: Turkish Targets for Renewable Energy Sources by 2023 (in %) set by the State Planning Organization    
Chart 24: Cumulative Installed Capacity of Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power  Plants in Turkey (in MW) 2007 ÷ 2027, including forecast     
Chart 25: Cumulative Revenue of Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power  Plants in Turkey (in Millions USD) 2007 ÷ 2027, including forecast    
Chart 26: Annual Installed Capacity of Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power Plants in Turkey (in MW) 2007 ÷ 2027, including forecast    
Chart 27: Annual Revenue of Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power Plants in Turkey (in Millions USD) 2007 ÷ 2027, including forecast    
Chart 28: Market Prices for Licensed Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Projects in Turkey for 2017 ÷ 2026 in Development, Ready to Build and Operational (Grid Connected) Condition    
Chart 29: Levelized Cost of Energy (LCOE) for Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power in Turkey    
Chart 30: TURSEFF Structure    
Chart 31: Cumulative Cash Flows and Break-Even Point of 5 MW Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power Plant Investment in Turkey    
Chart 32: Photovoltaic (Solar PV) System Price Evolution (€/Wp) 2000 ÷ 2018    
Chart 33: Market Shares by Sales of the Major Electricity Distribution Companies in Turkey in 2017    

List of Tables
Table 1: Electricity Prices for Business and Households    
Table 2: Support Schemes for RES Generation in the EU Countries and Turkey    
Table 3: Regional Distribution of Solar Energy Potential of Turkey    
Table 4: Market Prices for Unlicensed Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Projects in Turkey for 2018 ÷ 2027 in Development, Ready to Build and Operational (Grid Connected) Condition     
Table 5: Key Cost Structure Elements of Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power Plant in Turkey    
Table 6: Database with Major Operational, Under Construction and Planned Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Projects in Turkey    
Table 7: Key Financial Parameters of 5 MW Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power Plant Investment in Turkey    
Table 8: Key Financial Viability Indicators of 5 MW Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power Plant Investment in Turkey (IRR, NPV, Payback, Benefit-Cost)    
Table 9: Project Costs and Savings (Income) Summary of 5 MW Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power Plant Investment in Turkey    
Table 10: Yearly Cash Flows of 5 MW Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power Plant Investment in Turkey (Pre-tax, After-tax, Cumulative)    
Table 11: Crystalline Module Price Trend in 2018     
Table 12: Feed-in-tariffs for Electricity from Renewable Energy Sources (RES) in Turkey    
Table 13: Additional Incentives to Feed-in-tariffs for Electricity from Photovoltaic (Solar PV) sources in Turkey for Domestic (Local) Procurement Elements

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