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Western Balkans Wind Power Market Outlook 2018-2027

  • ID: 4803263
  • Report
  • Region: Balkans
  • 303 Pages
  • Inea Consulting Ltd
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Two Wind Farms with 44.4 MW Capacity to Start Commercial Operation in Greece

This market report offers an incisive and reliable overview of the wind energy sector of Western Balkans countries for the period 2018-2027. Newly installed wind capacity in this region will exceed XXX GW in the next 5 years. The number of fully permitted and ready to build projects is promptly increasing. Small wind market segment for turbines below 500 KW in many countries is not developed and forecasted to score significant growth in the near future.

The report provides a complete picture of the market situation, dynamics, risks, current issues, and future prospects. You will find 300 pages of valuable information in this unique in-depth analysis of the Western Balkans countries wind market. With comprehensive market data, this report brings clear and concise insights, to help investors, manufacturers and service providers in their decision making process. As 2016 and 2017 were challenging years for the wind industry, the time for taking the right decisions during 2018 and the next few years is limited. A fast-changing market environment requires relevant and accurate information.

Reasons to buy this market report are, but not limited to:

  • Wind resource potential in Western Balkans countries
  • Historical market data provided from 2000 to 2017 and forecasts until 2027
  • Overview of Western Balkans wind energy market development 2007-2027 by countries
  • Development scenario of Western Balkans countries wind power sector until 2027
  • Major active and upcoming wind power plants in Western Balkans countries
  • Attractiveness indices for wind energy investments in Western Balkans countries
  • SWOT Analysis (detailed in 5 pages)
  • Overview of Western Balkans legal and regulatory framework for RES generation by countries
  • Competitive Landscape, Project developers and Investors in Western Balkans countries
  • EPC & O&M providers, Equipment manufacturers and Consultants in Western Balkans countries
  • Key organizations and stakeholders affecting the development of the wind sector by countries
  • Comprehensive review of smart grid development in Western Balkans countries
  • Investment potential and opportunities

Subscription: Included in the report price is a subscription for a 1 year period with 4 quarterly updates

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FOREWORD

1. METHODOLOGY
1.1. Methodology
1.2. Limitations

2. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

3. WESTERN BALKAN COUNTRIES RENEWABLE ENERGY POLICY LANDSCAPE
3.1. RES Regulations and Directives of the European Union (EU) affecting Western Balkan countries
3.1.1. Precedent regulations
3.1.2. EU 2030 Framework for climate and energy policies
3.1.3. EU Energy Roadmap 2050
3.1.4. TWENTIES Project
3.1.5. European Technology Platform for Wind Energy (TPWind)
3.1.6. SET Plan
3.2. NATURA 2000 Network
3.3. Energy Community (EC) Treaty
3.4. Renewable energy mandatory targets for EU member states from Western Balkan countries

4. WESTERN BALKAN COUNTRIES ENERGY MARKET
4.1. General electricity market information

5. WORLD WIND ENERGY MARKET

6. EUROPEAN WIND ENERGY MARKET

7. WESTERN BALKAN COUNTRIES WIND RESOURCE POTENTIAL AND MAPPING

8. WESTERN BALKAN COUNTRIES WIND ENERGY MARKET
8.1. Market overview
8.2. Country attractiveness index for wind energy investments

9. COUNTRY PROFILES
9.1. ALBANIA
9.1.1. Albania Wind Energy Market Overview
9.1.2. Renewable Energy Incentives and Generation Capacity Mandatory Target
9.1.3. Major deals, M&A activity, major planned, development, and operating wind projects
9.1.4. RES Legal and Regulatory Framework
9.1.5. Key Stakeholders, Organizations and Institutions
9.2. BOSNIA AND HERZEGOVINA
9.2.1. Bosnia and Herzegovina Wind Energy Market Overview
9.2.2. Renewable Energy Incentives and Generation Capacity Mandatory Target
9.2.3. Major deals, M&A activity, major planned, development and operating wind projects
9.2.4. RES Legal and Regulatory Framework
9.2.5. Key Stakeholders, Organizations and Institutions
9.3. BULGARIA
9.3.1. Bulgaria Wind Energy Market Overview
9.3.2. Renewable Energy Incentives and Generation Capacity Mandatory Target
9.3.3. Major deals, M&A activity, major planned, development, and operating wind projects
9.3.4. RES Legal and Regulatory Framework
9.3.5. Key Stakeholders, Organizations and Institutions
9.4. CROATIA
9.4.1. Croatia Wind Energy Market Overview
9.4.2. Renewable Energy Incentives and Generation Capacity Mandatory Target
9.4.3. Major deals, M&A activity, major planned, development, and operating wind projects
9.4.4. RES Legal and Regulatory Framework
9.4.5. Key Stakeholders, Organizations and Institutions
9.5. GREECE
9.5.1. Greece Wind Energy Market Overview
9.5.2. Renewable Energy Incentives and Generation Capacity Mandatory Target
9.5.3. Major deals, M&A activity, major planned, development, and operating wind projects
9.5.4. RES Legal and Regulatory Framework
9.5.5. Key Stakeholders, Organizations and Institutions
9.6. KOSOVO
9.6.1. Kosovo Wind Energy Market Overview
9.6.2. Renewable Energy Incentives and Generation Capacity Mandatory Target
9.6.3. Major deals, M&A activity, major planned, development, and operating wind projects
9.6.4. RES Legal and Regulatory Framework
9.6.5. Key Stakeholders, Organizations and Institutions
9.7. MACEDONIA
9.7.1. Macedonia Wind Energy Market Overview
9.7.2. Renewable Energy Incentives and Generation Capacity Mandatory Target
9.7.3. Major deals, M&A activity, major planned, development, and operating wind projects
9.7.4. RES Legal and Regulatory Framework
9.7.5. Key Stakeholders, Organizations and Institutions
9.8. MONTENEGRO
9.8.1. Montenegro Wind Energy Market Overview
9.8.2. Renewable Energy Incentives and Generation Capacity Mandatory Target
9.8.3. Major deals, M&A activity, major planned, development, and operating wind projects
9.8.4. RES Legal and Regulatory Framework
9.8.5. Key Stakeholders, Organizations and Institutions
9.9. ROMANIA
9.9.1. Romania Wind Energy Market Overview
9.9.2. Renewable Energy Incentives and Generation Capacity Mandatory Target
9.9.3. Major deals, M&A activity, major planned, development, and operating wind projects
9.9.4. RES Legal and Regulatory Framework
9.9.5. Key Stakeholders, Organizations and Institutions
9.10. SERBIA
9.10.1. Serbia Wind Energy Market Overview
9.10.2. Renewable Energy Incentives and Generation Capacity Mandatory Target
9.10.3. Major deals, M&A activity, major planned, development and operating wind projects
9.10.4. RES Legal and Regulatory Framework
9.10.5. Key Stakeholders, Organizations and Institutions
9.11. SLOVENIA
9.11.1. Slovenia Wind Energy Market Overview
9.11.2. Renewable Energy Incentives and Generation Capacity Mandatory Target
9.11.3. Major deals, M&A activity, major planned, development, and operating wind projects
9.11.4. RES Legal and Regulatory Framework
9.11.5. Key Stakeholders, Organizations and Institutions
9.12. TURKEY
9.12.1.Turkey Wind Energy Market Overview
9.12.2. Renewable Energy Incentives and Generation Capacity Mandatory Target
9.12.3. Major deals, M&A activity, major planned, development, and operating wind projects
9.12.4. RES Legal and Regulatory Framework
9.12.5. Key Stakeholders, Organizations and Institutions

10. COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS OF SUPPORT SCHEMES IN WESTERN BALKAN COUNTRIES. FEED-IN TARIFFS AND GREEN CERTIFICATES

11. COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS OF MANDATORY CAPACITY GENERATION TARGETS IN WESTERN BALKAN COUNTRIES

12. ELECTRICITY GRID NETWORK IN WESTERN BALKAN COUNTRIES
12.1. Transmission System Operators (TSO’s)
12.2. Distribution System Operators (DSO’s)
12.3. Grid connection constraints
13. SMART GRID DEVELOPMENT IN WESTERN BALKAN COUNTRIES
13.1. Smart Grid and Super Smart Grid Concept
13.2. Smart grids development in the Western Balkan countries

14. COMPETITIVE LANDSCAPE. PROJECT DEVELOPERS AND INVESTORS IN WESTERN BALKANS WIND ENERGY MARKET

15. EPC AND O&M PROVIDERS, EQUIPMENT MANUFACTURERS AND CONSULTANTS IN WESTERN BALKANS WIND ENERGY MARKET

16. SWOT ANALYSIS OF WESTERN BALKANS WIND ENERGY MARKET

17. RISKS ABOUT WIND INVESTMENTS IN WESTERN BALKAN COUNTRIES
17.1. Risks Associated with the Wind Energy Industry in Western Balkan countries
17.1.1. Regulatory Risk
17.1.2. Competition within the Wind Energy Industry
17.1.3. Public Attitudes towards Wind Energy Projects
17.1.4. Emerging Market Risk
17.1.5. Insurance Risk
17.1.6. Force Majeure Risk
17.2. Risks Associated with the Investor’s Finance Arrangements
17.2.1. Asset Sale Risk
17.2.2. Borrowing Risk
17.2.3. Foreign Exchange Risk
17.3. Risks Associated with the Development of Wind Energy Plants
17.3.1. Variability in the Source of Wind Energy
17.3.2. Development of the Project and Construction Risk
17.3.3. Capital Cost Risk
17.3.4. Permits
17.3.5. Land Options
17.3.6. Construction
17.3.7. Dependency on Suppliers
17.3.8. Technology Risk
17.3.9. Operation and Maintenance Risk
17.3.10. Market Price of Electricity

18. INVESTMENT TRENDS, POTENTIAL, AND OPPORTUNITIES IN WESTERN BALKANS WIND ENERGY MARKET

19. CONCLUSIONS

20. LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS

21. REFERENCES

22. DISCLAIMER

23. APPENDIX I. WIND MAPS OF EUROPE AND WESTERN BALKAN COUNTRIES

List of Maps
MAP 1: The synchronous grids of Europe   
MAP 2: Interconnection Grid Map of Western Balkan countries 2018    
MAP 3: Wind resource potential of Western Balkan countries. Mean wind speed at 80 m. 2018    
MAP 4: Wind Resource Map of Albania    
MAP 5: Wind Resource Map of Bosnia and Herzegovina    
MAP 6: Wind Resource Map of Bulgaria    
MAP 7: Wind Resource Map of Croatia    
MAP 8: Wind Resource Map of Greece    
MAP 9: Wind Resource Map of Macedonia    
MAP 10: Wind Resource Map of Romania    
MAP 11: Wind Resource Map of Serbia    
MAP 12: Slovenia Wind Resource Map    
MAP 13: Turkey Wind Speed and Power Density Map    
MAP 14: Smart Grid Projects Map in Europe 2017    
Map 15: Mean 80-m wind speeds in Europe and Western Balkan countries from Stanford University    
Map 16: Global Mean Wind Speed at 80 m    
Map 17: European Wind Atlas   

List of Charts
Chart 1: Technology Road Map for Wind Energy Development, SET Plan    
Chart 2: World Total Installed Cumulative Wind Capacity 1997 - 2017    
Chart 3: World New Installed Wind Capacity 1998 - 2017    
Chart 4: Top 10 Countries by Growth Rate (in %). Markets bigger than 200 MW, 2017    
Chart 5: Shares in New Installed Wind Capacity by Continents (in %), 2017    
Chart 6: World Cumulative Wind Power Installations in GW for 1997 - 2027    
Chart 7: EU Member States Shares for New Installed Wind Capacity in 2017 in MW    
Chart 8: Share of New Power Capacity Installations in EU 2017 in MW    
Chart 9: Share of New Renewable Power Capacity Installations in the EU in MW in 2017    
Chart 10: Installed Power Generating Capacity in MW and RES share in the EU for 2000 - 2017    
Chart 11: Net Electricity Generating Installations in the EU for 2000 - 2017 in GW    
Chart 12: Annual Wind Power Installations in the EU in GW for 2000 - 2017    
Chart 13: Cumulative Wind Power Installations in the EU in GW for 2000 - 2017   
Chart 14: Cumulative developments of wind power plants in Western Balkan countries in MW from 2007 to 2027, including estimates    
Chart 15: Cumulative developments of wind power plants in Albania in MW from 2007 to 2027, including estimates    
Chart 16: Cumulative developments of wind power plants in Bosnia and Herzegovina in MW from 2007 to 2027, including estimates    
Chart 17: Bulgarian RES targets in % set by the EU    
Chart 18: Cumulative developments of wind power plants in Bulgaria in MW from 2007 to 2027, including estimates    
Chart 19: Cumulative developments of wind power plants in Croatia in MW from 2007 to 2027, including estimates    
Chart 20: Cumulative developments of wind power plants in Greece in MW from 2007 to 2027, including estimates    
Chart 21: Cumulative developments of wind power plants in Kosovo in MW from 2007 to 2027, including estimates    
Chart 22: Cumulative developments of wind power plants in Macedonia in MW from 2007 to 2027, including estimates    
Chart 23: Cumulative developments of wind power plants in Montenegro in MW from 2007 to 2027, including estimates    
Chart 24: Cumulative developments of wind power plants in Romania in MW from 2007 to 2027, including estimates    
Chart 25: Cumulative developments of wind power plants in Serbia in MW from 2007 to 2027, including estimates    
Chart 26: Cumulative developments of wind power plants in Slovenia in MW from 2007 to 2027, including estimates    
Chart 27: Turkish RES targets for 2023 in % set by the State Planning Organization    
Chart 28: Cumulative developments of wind power plants in Turkey in MW from 2000 to 2026, including estimates    
Chart 29: Mandatory capacity generation targets for the share of renewable energies in Western Balkan countries by 2020    
Chart 30: Forecast for total Net Generation Capacity in the EU by source type by 2030    
Chart 31: RWE Group position on individual markets (by sales) in 2017    
Chart 32: Map of RWE Group Operations in Western Balkan countries    
Chart 33: Map of CEZ Group Operations in Western Balkan countries    
Chart 34: Smart Grid Model Concept    
Chart 35: The SuperSmart Grid Diagram    
Chart 36: Cumulative number of smart grid projects in selected Western Balkan countries compared to average EU number, 2000 - 2017    
Chart 37: Cumulative budget of smart grid projects in selected Western Balkan countries compared to average EU numbers, 2000 - 2017    

List of Tables
Table 1: Support schemes for RES generation in the EU countries    
Table 2: Attractiveness index for wind energy investments in Western Balkan countries in 2018    
Table 3: Feed-in tariff for wind energy in Bosnia and Herzegovina    
Table 4: Feed-in tariff for wind energy in Bulgaria    
Table 5: Feed-in tariff for wind energy in Croatia    
Table 6: Feed-in tariff for wind energy in Greece    
Table 7: Feed-in tariff for wind energy in Macedonia    
Table 8: Feed-in tariffs for wind energy in Montenegro    
Table 9: Green certificates for wind energy in Romania    
Table 10: Feed-in tariff for wind energy in Serbia    
Table 11: Feed-in-tariffs for electricity from rooftop photovoltaic energy in Slovenia    
Table 12: Feed-in tariff for wind energy in Slovenia    
Table 13: Feed-in tariff for wind energy in Turkey    
Table 14: Additional incentives to Feed-in-tariffs for electricity from wind sources in Turkey for domestic procurement    
Table 15: Support schemes in Western Balkan countries. Comparative analysis 2018    
Table 16: List of TSO's in Western Balkan countries 2018  

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All the Western Balkan countries have committed to increasing their share of renewable energy by 2020 to reach between 25 and 40 percent of their energy mix, as part of their obligations under the Energy Community Treaty. Western Balkan countries are planning to build nearly 3,000 MW of new coal power plants. The construction cost of these power plants could exceed EUR 5 billion. This is in conflict with the Paris Agreement's aim of limiting the average global temperature increase to 1.5 degrees Celsius, and in contrast with the situation in the EU, where most countries are giving up building new coal plants and seven EU states are already coal-free. Germany announced at the end of this month plans to end its reliance on coal power plants by 2038.

What is the Current Power Market Situation in Western Balkans

Total installed power generation capacity in the Western Balkans region at the end of 2018 is 17,867 MW. According to energy experts, many of the power generation facilities in this region are outdated and too centralized to be efficient. The Western Balkans constitute one-quarter of total energy consumption in the European Union according to Eurostat data. Final energy consumption may grow by about 25% over the period up to 2030. Western Balkan countries have CO2 emissions three times the European Union average.

Despite serious political support from the governments of the most Western Balkan countries to coal power, we have observed since 2016 delay in investment intentions for some of the announced coal power plant projects. However, solar and wind power projects need less realization and building time and investment cost than new coal power facilities, and their electricity generation cost is very close to those of coal power ones. Furthermore, Western Balkan countries, which plan to join the European Union (EU) will have to pay penalties for CO2 emissions from coal power plants. Political leaders of Western Balkan countries already think about how to increase energy efficiency and to install more renewable energy capacity in order to diminish their coal dependency.

Wind Power in Western Balkans

Wind power plant developments in the Western Balkan countries are still limited and in early development phase. The whole region is characterized by a huge untapped wind generation potential. Although the wind speed is not as fast as that of northern Europe, the Western Balkans offers many very feasible sites for wind generation. Particularly in the many higher mountainous regions, that have higher altitudes and faster and more consistent wind speeds.

According to the report Western Balkans Wind Power Market Outlook 2018-2027 the number of wind power plant projects is quickly increasing. Albania’s government targets to have 70 MW of wind power capacity by 2020. Cibuk 1 Wind farm is a utility-scale onshore wind farm under development in Serbia. Due for completion in 2019, the 158 megawatt (MW) capacity Cibuk 1 wind farm will be the largest utility-scale commercial wind project in Serbia and the Western Balkans. Construction of one large scale wind project in Croatia has been started in the second half of 2018. The 156-MW wind farm, consisting of 39 wind turbines with a 4-MW capacity each, shall be built by the Chinese company Norinco International and will spread over 45 sq. km. territory. The project was supported by both the Croatian and the Chinese government.

Conclusions

Our observations have shown that the Western Balkans region has a vast potential for solar and wind energy projects development while currently only a small share of that potential has been deployed. The region has a significant transformation potential towards a low carbon energy system. To overcome the future gap between energy supply and demand, as well as taking into consideration the risks from global climate change, a lot of attention should orient to renewable energy sources (RES) in the Western Balkans countries.

Western Balkan countries are the new found hotspot for solar and wind energy investments amongst European countries. The maturing Western European and Central European markets allowed investors to look for new opportunities in the Western Balkans region.

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  • Albania    
  • Bosnia And Herzegovina    
  • Bulgaria    
  • Croatia    
  • Greece    
  • Kosovo    
  • Macedonia (Fyrom)    
  • Montenegro    
  • Romania    
  • Serbia    
  • Slovenia    
  • Turkey
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