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Poland Solar Photovoltaic (PV) Power Market Outlook 2018-2027

  • ID: 4803697
  • Report
  • Region: Poland
  • 124 Pages
  • Inea Consulting Ltd
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Poland Solar Photovoltaic (PV) Market Development Perspective and Opportunities in 2019

FEATURED COMPANIES

  • Modus Energy
  • Polski Solar Holding
  • ReneSola Ltd
  • MORE

This market report offers an incisive and reliable overview of the photovoltaic sector of the country for the next 10 years period 2018-2027. Poland is a very interesting market due to its political and economic stability, high prices for electricity and heavy dependence on coal and lignite in power generation, which should be changed to comply with EU renewable policy. In view of recent cuts in FIT’s announced in Germany, Spain, France, UK, Czech Republic, Slovakia, Bulgaria Romania, and Italy, Poland represents a stable investment environment in Central-East Europe.

Current cumulative installed PV capacity in the country by the end of 2017 stays at below 300 MW and is insignificant, but this represents the only potential for further growth if the Polish government finds a suitable balance for its several times changed in recent years renewable energy policy. By geographical distribution, the largest share of solar photovoltaic (PV) capacity in Poland is belonging to the Lublin province with more than 10 % of all installations in the country. Is it possible Polish solar PV market to start growing sizeable in the near future? How the referential feed-in tariffs, feed-in premiums and auction scheme from 1st July 2016 will influence the photovoltaic market in Poland this and next years?

What is the economics of solar photovoltaic (PV) projects in Poland? The answer you will find in enclosed in the report detailed Financial Model and Analysis of 5 MW Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power Plant investment in Poland (IRR, WACC, Payback, NPV, Cash Flow, etc.)

The report provides a complete picture of the market situation, dynamics, current issues, and future prospects. You will find more than 120 pages of valuable information in this unique in-depth analysis of the Polish photovoltaic (solar PV) market. With comprehensive market data, this report brings clear and concise insights, to help investors in their decision-making process. As 2017 was a challenging year for the photovoltaic industry, the time for making the right decisions during 2018 and the next years is limited. A fast-changing market environment with falling module prices requires relevant and accurate information.

Reasons to buy this market report are, but not limited to:

  • Overview of the Polish political and economic environment
  • Solar resource potential in Poland
  • Financial Model and Analysis of 5 MW Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power Plant investment in Poland (IRR, WACC, Payback, NPV, Cash Flow, etc.)
  • Over 55 charts, tables, and maps
  • Overview of Polish photovoltaic market development 2007-2027
  • Grid-connected photovoltaic power installations for 2018
  • Future market trends and planned photovoltaic projects for 2018-2027
  • Market prices of fully permitted and operational photovoltaic projects
  • Polish legal and energy regulatory framework for renewable projects
  • Key companies and competitive landscape in the photovoltaic sector
  • Review of most relevant financing and supporting incentives
  • SWOT Analysis (detailed in 5 pages)

Subscription: Included in the report price is a subscription for a 1 year period with 4 quarterly updates

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FEATURED COMPANIES

  • Modus Energy
  • Polski Solar Holding
  • ReneSola Ltd
  • MORE

FOREWORD

1 METHODOLOGY AND LIMITATIONS
1.1 Research Methodology
1.2 Limitations

2 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
2.1 Historical and Current Development Overview of Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power Market in Poland
2.2 Poland Solar Resource Potential
2.3 Key Stakeholders Affecting Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power Market Development in Poland
2.4 Market Drivers and Constraints
2.5 Auction (Tender) Procedure for Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power Plants in Poland
2.6 Recent and Pending Changes in Renewable Energy Law in Poland
2.7 Market Forecast Summary

3 POLAND POLITICAL AND ECONOMIC ENVIRONMENT. PEST ANALYSIS
3.1 Basic Country Data
3.2 Political Climate and Ruling Party
3.3 GDP and Economic Growth
3.4 Taxes
3.4.1 VAT
3.4.2 Income and Corporate Taxes

4 CENTRAL-EAST EUROPE (CEE) AND SOUTH-EAST EUROPE (SEE) POWER MARKET
4.1 General Electricity Market information
4.2 Photovoltaics (Solar PV) in Energy Sector
4.3 Single Electricity Market

5 CENTRAL-EAST EUROPE (CEE) AND SOUTH-EAST EUROPE (SEE) PHOTOVOLTAIC (SOLAR PV) POWER MARKET
5.1 Market Overview
5.2 Cumulative Installed Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Capacity and Revenue
5.3 Annual Installed Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Capacity and Revenue
5.4 Future Development Trends

6 POLAND POWER MARKET
6.1 Electricity Transmission and Distribution
6.2 Electricity Consumption and Generation
6.3 Electricity Imports and Exports
6.4 Electricity Prices for Business and Households
6.5 Renewable Energy Sources (RES) Targets

7 POLAND PHOTOVOLTAIC (SOLAR PV) POWER MARKET
7.1 Why Invest in Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power in Poland?
7.2 Poland Solar Resource Potential
7.3 Licensing Period Duration
7.4 Regional Substation Capacities for Solar PV Power Projects in Poland
7.5 Overview of Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power Market in Poland
7.6 Market Structure Analysis
7.7 Investment Trends and Development Roadmap
7.8 Competitive Environment in Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power Market
7.9 Profiles of Key Players and Investors in Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power Market
7.10 Cumulative Installed Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Capacity and Revenue
7.11 Annual Installed Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Capacity and Revenue
7.12 Market Prices for Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power Projects in Poland in Development, Ready to Build and Operational (Grid Connected) Condition
7.13 Key Cost Structure Elements of Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power Plant in Poland
7.14 Levelized Cost of Energy (LCOE) for Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power in Poland
7.15 Key Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power Projects in Poland Under Development
7.16 Mergers and Acquisitions

8 DRIVERS AND CONSTRAINTS OF PHOTOVOLTAIC (SOLAR PV) MARKET IN POLAND. SWOT ANALYSIS
8.1 Market Drivers
8.2 Market Drivers Explained
8.3 Market Constraints
8.4 Market Constraints Explained
8.5 SWOT Analysis

9 FINANCIAL ANALYSIS OF PHOTOVOLTAIC (SOLAR PV) MARKET IN POLAND
9.1 Financing Options of Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power Projects in Poland
9.2 Financial Model and Analysis of 5 MW Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power Plant investment in Poland (IRR, WACC, Payback, NPV, Cash Flow, ETC.)

10 TECHNOLOGY ANALYSIS
10.1 Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Technology Overview
10.2 Technology Trends

11 EUROPEAN RENEWABLE ENERGY POLICY LANDSCAPE
11.1 RES Regulations and EU Directives
11.1.1 Precedent EU regulations
11.1.2 Most recent EU renewable energy policy developments

12 POLAND RENEWABLE ENERGY SOURCES (RES) LEGAL AND REGULATORY FRAMEWORK
12.1 Main Laws and Regulations
12.2 Support Schemes
12.3 Green Certificates Trading
12.4 Recent and Pending Changes in Renewable Energy Law in Poland
12.5 Auction (Tender) Procedure for Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power Plants in Poland
12.6 Zoning, Planning and Construction Related Authorizations
12.6.1 Zoning Plans Procedure
12.6.2 Building Permit (Construction License) Procedure
12.7 Environmental Related Authorizations
12.7.1 Natura 2000 Network
12.7.2 Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) and Joint Implementation (JI)
12.8 Energy Law Authorizations
12.8.1 Power Generation Licensing and Unlicensed Power Generation Below 1 MW
12.8.2 Grid Interconnection
12.8.3 Power Off-Take
12.8.4 Feed-in Tariff (FIT)
12.8.5 Green Certificates (Guarantees of Origin)
12.9 Future Market Pricing Mechanisms

13 KEY STAKEHOLDERS AFFECTING PHOTOVOLTAIC (SOLAR PV) POWER MARKET DEVELOPMENT IN POLAND
13.1 Government Stakeholders
13.2 Non-Government Stakeholders
13.3 Electricity Generation, Transmission System Operator (TSO) and Distribution System Operators (DSO’s)

14 CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS

15 LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS

16 REFERENCES

17 DISCLAIMER

APPENDIX I. SOLAR RESOURCE MAPS OF EUROPE AND POLAND

List of Maps
Map 1: Where is Poland on the European Map    
Map 2: Poland Road Network    
Map 3: Poland Administrative Regions Map    
Map 4: Poland Electricity Grids Network    
Map 5: Solar Resource Map of Poland    
Map 6: Solar Irradiation and Solar Electricity Potential for Optimally Inclined Photovoltaic Modules in Poland  
MAP 7: Poland Natura 2000 Areas Map    
MAP 8: Solar Irradiation and Solar Electricity Potential for Horizontally Mounted Photovoltaic Modules in Poland   
Map 9: Solar Irradiation and Solar Electricity Potential for Horizontally Mounted Photovoltaic Modules in Poland   
Map 10: Solar Irradiation and Solar Electricity Potential for Optimally Inclined Photovoltaic Modules in Europe   

List of Charts
Chart 1: Poland Real GDP Growth for the Period 2000 - 2027 (including forecast)    
Chart 2: Poland GDP Growth Compared to EU-27 for the Period 2002 - 2027 (including forecast)    
Chart 3: Corporate Tax Income in Selected Central-East Europe (CEE) and South-East Europe (SEE) Countries     
Chart 4: Physical Energy Flows Values in GW in Central-East Europe (CEE) and South-East Europe (SEE) in 2017    
Chart 5: Share of Renewables in Electricity Generation in Selected Central-East Europe (CEE) and South-East Europe (SEE) Countries, 2017 (in %)    
Chart 6: Average Base Load Electricity Price in Selected European Countries (EUR/MWh): 2008 - 2018    
Chart 7: Forecast for RES Generation Capacity by Source Type in the EU to 2020 and 2030 (in GW)   
Chart 8: Net Power Generation Added Capacities in the EU 28 in 2017 (MW)    
Chart 9: Age of Power Plants in Europe in 2017    
Chart 10: Share of New Power Generation Capacities Added in the EU 28 in 2017 (MW)    
Chart 11: Installed Power Generating Capacity per Year (MW) and Renewable Share (in %) 2000 – 2017
Chart 12: New Installed and Decommissioned Power Generation Capacity in the EU 27 for 2017 (GW)   
Chart 13: Cumulative Installed Capacity of Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power Plants (in MW) in Central-East Europe (CEE) and South-East Europe (SEE) 2007 - 2027, including forecast    
Chart 14: Cumulative Revenue of Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power Plants (in Millions USD) in Central-East Europe (CEE) and South-East Europe (SEE) 2007 - 2027, including forecast    
Chart 15: Annual Installed Capacity of Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power Plants (in MW) in Central-East Europe (CEE) and South-East Europe (SEE) 2007 - 2027, including forecast    
Chart 16: Annual Revenue of Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power Plants (in Millions USD) in Central-East Europe (CEE) and South-East Europe (SEE) 2007 - 2027, including forecast    
Chart 17: Poland Power Market Structure    
Chart 18: Share of RES electricity from Total Installed Power Capacity in Poland in 2017    
Chart 19: Poland Total Annual Electricity Consumption (in TWh) 2000 - 2017    
Chart 20: Poland Power Generation Capacity Breakdown by Source (Fuel) Type in 2017    
Chart 21: Electricity Imports and Exports in Poland 2000 - 2026 (in TWh) including forecast    
Chart 22: Poland Targets for Renewable Energy Sources by 2020 (in %) set by National Renewable Energy Action Plan (NREAP)    
Chart 23: Cumulative Installed Capacity of Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power  Plants in Poland (in MW) 2007 - 2027, including forecast     
Chart 24: Cumulative Revenue of Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power  Plants in Poland (in Millions USD) 2007 - 2027, including forecast    
Chart 25: Annual Installed Capacity of Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power Plants in Poland (in MW) 2007 - 2027, including forecast    
Chart 26: Annual Revenue of Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power Plants in Poland (in Millions USD) 2007-2027, including forecast    
Chart 27: Levelized Cost of Energy (LCOE) for Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power in Poland    
Chart 28: PolSEFF Structure    
Chart 29: Cumulative Cash Flows and Break-Even Point of 5 MW Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power Plant Investment in Poland    
Chart 30: Photovoltaic (Solar PV) System Price Evolution (€/Wp) 1990-2018    
Chart 31: Market Shares by Sales of the Distribution System Operators in Poland in 2017     
Chart 32: Corporate Governance Structure of PGE    

List of Tables
Table 1: Electricity Prices for Business and Households    
Table 2: Support Schemes for RES Generation in the EU Countries and Poland    
Table 4: Market Prices for Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Projects in Poland for 2018 ÷ 2027 in Development, Ready to Build and Operational (Grid Connected) Condition     
Table 5: Key Cost Structure Elements of Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power Plant in Poland    
Table 6: Database with Major Operational, Under Construction and Planned Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Projects in Poland    
Table 7: Key Financial Parameters of 5 MW Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power Plant Investment in Poland    
Table 8: Key Financial Viability Indicators of 5 MW Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power Plant Investment in Poland (IRR, NPV, Payback, Benefit-Cost)    
Table 9: Project Costs and Savings (Income) Summary of 5 MW Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power Plant Investment in Poland    
Table 10: Yearly Cash Flows of 5 MW Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power Plant Investment in Poland (Pre-tax, After-tax, Cumulative)    
Table 11: Crystalline Module Price Trend in 2018   
Table 12: Green Certificates for Electricity from Renewable Energy Sources (RES) in Poland

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FEATURED COMPANIES

  • Modus Energy
  • Polski Solar Holding
  • ReneSola Ltd
  • MORE

Poland is a promising country among Central East European (CEE) countries for investors in solar photovoltaic (PV) generation facilities. According to the research department, the Polish economy is safe for the business environment and long-term planning with a low risk of the financial crisis, offering excellent opportunities for renewable energy investments. In times of global economic crisis, Poland has strengthened its position, not only in the region of Central and Eastern Europe but also all over the continent. The country offers a wide range of investment incentives. Poland adopted the New Investment Support Act in June 2018. The new law is intended to expand the area offering tax incentives up to almost 100% of Poland’s investment space.

CURRENT POWER MARKET SITUATION

Energy consumption in Poland is strongly dominated by the use of coal. Consuming 77 million tonnes of coal per year, Poland is the 10th largest coal consumer in the world and the 2nd largest in the EU, after Germany. 92% of electricity and 89% of heat in Poland is generated from coal (World Energy Council 2017). Coal has a share of 51% in gross inland consumption, followed by 25% of petroleum products, 14% of gas and 9% of renewable energies.

Prices on the Polish Power Exchange (TGE) spot market remained in 2017 at a relatively low level, which was the opposite trend in comparison to other European exchanges, where prices rather were increasing throughout the year. However, the growth of electricity prices with 25 % was observed on the market during 2018 compared to 2017 and this represents a risk for industry and households.

The Polish Energy Regulatory Office (ERO) reported in the first half of 2018 that energy generated by renewable energy sources (RES) in Poland is approximately 13.5% of the total production. The main share (c.a. 68%) of this production for wind energy, followed by 15.95% biomass, 11.5% hydro, 2.7% biogas, and 1.2% solar energy.

GRID INFRASTRUCTURE

The electricity grid in Poland is sub-divided into transmission grids (maximum voltage) and distribution grids (high, medium and low voltage). Polish transmission system operator (TSO) has over 100 high voltage substations. The number of electricity consumers in the country exceeds 17 million.

The Polish grid infrastructure needs serious amounts of investments to modernize transmission lines, some of which are in a poor condition. According to estimations of the Energy Brainpool, the Polish market is facing big challenges considering the security of power supply. If there will be no changes in the electricity system, the supply side will not cover the power demand in the near future already.

CLIMATE AND ENERGY POLICIES

GHG emissions in Poland decreased strongly by 37% in the period 1990-2002, but after 2002 emissions grew by 3% to 2015. Poland has a growth target of 14% for the 2005-2020 period under the Effort Sharing Decision (ESD), and it is on track to reach this target because the actual emission increase is lower than expected in the ESD target.

Comparative indicators such as emission intensity indicate that Poland performs worse than most other Eastern European countries and the average EU-28 Member States in terms of emission reductions and decarbonisation in the energy sector which is due to its strong reliance on coal. Recent decisions and revised legislation in 2017 in the energy sector will lead to an increased role of coal in energy supply compared to past plans and a much slower expansion of renewable energies than in recent years, in particular for wind power.

Polish plans in the energy sector will not contribute to significant further emission reductions in the future. As Poland is the fifth largest EU emitter, this may slow down overall EU progress in emission reductions.

CURRENT SOLAR PHOTOVOLTAIC (PV) MARKET SITUATION

The maturing German, Spanish, Czech, Slovakian and Italian markets allowed investors to look for new opportunities in Central and Eastern European (CEE) nations. However, regarding the renewable electricity generation, the Polish solar photovoltaic (PV) market loses greatly to wind energy in terms of installed capacity according to the analyst.

Wind is still the most popular clean energy source in Poland’s renewable sector, with 5,798 MW of installed capacity by the end of 2017. Coal and lignite-fired plants currently provide the majority of the electricity consumed in the country. Due to the lack of proper government support for solar photovoltaic (PV) energy in Poland between 2010 and 2016, the biggest country of the CEE region trails far behind its neighbors.

SOLAR AUCTIONS IN POLAND

Cumulative installed solar PV capacity in the country is quickly growing since 2016 under the renewable energy sources (RES) auction model and net metering support scheme established by the Polish government reveals the analyst in its recently published report Poland Solar Photovoltaic (PV) Power Market Outlook 2018-2027.

At the latest round held by the Polish Energy Regulation Office (ERO) on 15th November 2018, a total number of 251 companies placed 554 bids for solar photovoltaic (PV) power plants in the country. The lowest auction price was PLN 288.99/MWh (€67.03/MWh), while the highest auction price was PLN 364.9/MWh (€84.63/MWh). New auctions for 700 MW solar PV projects are expected in 2019. According to information from the Polish transmission system operator (PSE) shared in 2018 the country’s electricity system shall need almost 2,000 MW (2 GW) of solar photovoltaic (PV) power capacity to manage with the summer peak consumption.

MAJOR SOLAR PV PROJECT DEVELOPMENTS

Modus Energy finished construction of 12 new solar PV power plants in Poland in 2018. These 12 solar PV power plant projects are the first of more than 50 projects to be implemented by Modus Energy in the country. Around 30 identical solar projects across various regions of the country are also planned. Approximately 56 MW is to be generated by the solar power plants that will be installed in an area of around 130 ha. The total amount of investments is estimated at over EUR 50 million.

Polski Solar Holding has obtained EU funding for the construction of two renewable energy projects in the municipalities of Stara Kamienica and Prusice in Lower Silesia. Polski Solar also submitted twenty-two bids, totaling over 17 MW of solar photovoltaic projects, in the Polish Energy Auction on November 15, 2018.

ReneSola Ltd. announced at the end of November 2018 that it was awarded 26 solar utility projects in Poland with a capacity of 1 MW for each. All of these 26 projects are under Poland's Contract for Difference (CFD) regime and eligible for a 15-year guaranteed tariff of PLN 354.8-358.8/MWh, close to the highest auction price of PLN 364.9/MWh.

The full contact details and relevant information about the Polish solar PV market, you may receive with a 1-year subscription for Poland Solar Photovoltaic (PV) Power Market Outlook 2018-2027. Furthermore, you will receive 4 quarterly updates and discount for all subscribers by the end of February 2019.

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  • Modus Energy
  • Polski Solar Holding
  • ReneSola Ltd
Note: Product cover images may vary from those shown
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Note: Product cover images may vary from those shown
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