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Belarus Solar Photovoltaic (PV) Power Market: Outlook 2018-2027

  • ID: 4803810
  • Report
  • Region: Belarus
  • 114 Pages
  • Inea Consulting Ltd
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FEATURED COMPANIES

Belarus, a landlocked, generally flat country (the average elevation is 162 meters above sea level) without natural borders, occupies an area of 207,600 km2, or slightly smaller than the United Kingdom or the state of Kansas. Its neighbors are Russia to the east and northeast, Latvia to the north, Lithuania to the northwest, Poland to the west, and Ukraine to the south. Its extension from north to south is 560 km, from west to east is 650 km. The population of Belarus was 9.51 million and the current gross domestic product (GDP) was $47.43 billion as of 2016.

Belarus solar photovoltaic power market value, which was USD XXX million in 2017, is expected to grow to USD XXX million in 2018, at a CAGR of XXX percent. Renewable energy sources (RES) account for 5.7 percent of the total fuel and energy consumption in Belarus in 2016. The figure is projected to reach XXX percent by 2018. As a net energy importer, the national energy policy of Belarus is focused on maintaining energy security and stability in the country and reducing energy import dependency through increased energy efficiency measures. A new “Concept of Energy Security” came into force on 1 January 2016 and defines the long-term view on the country’s energy sector development. The main priority of Belarus energy policy is to increase energy efficiency and to develop local sources of energy: 80 % of the energy consumption is currently imported.

Belarusian mobile operator Velcom informed in 2016 about the opening of one the largest solar PV power plants in the country till the moment. It is located Bragin in the southern part of Belarus. This solar PV power plant has 22 MWp capacity and covers an area of more than 41 ha and with 85,000 solar PV modules delivered by Chinese solar manufacturer Risen Energy Co Ltd.

Belarus is ranked among top 5 countries by attractiveness for solar photovoltaic (PV) energy investments among CIS countries by Renewable Market Watch in their yearly updated "Attractiveness index for solar photovoltaic (PV) energy investments in CIS countries in 2018". The country’s main strategy to meet the growing need of power is to reduce the energy dependency by increasing the energy efficiency, increased use of renewable resources, nuclear sources, and connecting to the European power infrastructure and power infrastructure of Commonwealth Independent States (CIS).

Current cumulative installed photovoltaic (PV) power capacity in the country is XXX MW at the end of 2017 and the number of fully permitted and ready to build projects will promptly increase in 2018 and next years. First photovoltaic (PV) power plants have been launched into commercial operation between 2012 and 2017, whilst pipeline of over 230 MW solar power projects are progressing in different stages of permitting process for grid connection by 2020. Feed-in tariff for photovoltaic (PV) energy has been updated in Belarus in May 2015 combined with 20 years PPA period is expected to pave the way for fast further growth of wind energy market in Belarus.

The report provides a complete picture of the market situation, dynamics, current issues, and future prospects. You will find more than 110 pages of valuable information in this unique in-depth analysis of the Belarus photovoltaic (PV) power market. With comprehensive market data, this report brings clear and concise insights, to help investors in their decision-making process. As 2016 and 2017 were challenging years for world photovoltaic (PV) energy industry, the time for taking the right decisions during 2018 and the next few years is limited. The fast changing market environment requires relevant and accurate information. 

Reasons to buy this market report are, but not limited to:

  • Solar resource potential in Belarus
  • Historical market data provided from 2000 to 2017 and forecasts until 2027
  • Financial Model and Analysis of 5 MW Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power Plant investment in Belarus (IRR, WACC, Payback, NPV, Cash Flow, etc.)
  • Over 45 charts, tables, and maps
  • Overview of Belarus photovoltaic (solar PV) market development 2007-2027
  • Development scenario of Belarus photovoltaic (solar PV) sector until 2027
  • Major active and upcoming solar PV power plants in Belarus
  • Current market prices of fully permitted and operational photovoltaic projects
  • Attractiveness index for solar photovoltaic investments in Belarus and CIS countries
  • SWOT Analysis (detailed in 5 pages)
  • Overview of Belarus legal and regulatory framework for RES generation
  • Review of most relevant financing and supporting incentives
  • Project developers, EPC providers, and Consultants in Belarus
  • Key organizations and stakeholders affecting the development of the photovoltaic sector in Belarus
  • Investment potential and opportunities

Subscription: Included in the report price is a subscription for a 1 year period with 4 quarterly updates

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FEATURED COMPANIES

FOREWORD

1 METHODOLOGY AND LIMITATIONS
1.1 Research Methodology
1.2 Limitations

2 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
2.1 Historical and Current Development Overview of Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power Market in Belarus
2.2 Belarus Solar Resource Potential
2.3 Key Stakeholders Affecting Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power Market Development in Belarus
2.4 Market Drivers and Constraints
2.5 Recent and Pending Changes in Renewable Energy Law in Belarus
2.6 Market Forecast Summary

3 BELARUS POLITICAL AND ECONOMIC ENVIRONMENT. PEST ANALYSIS
3.1 Basic Country Data
3.2 Political Climate and Ruling Party
3.3 GDP and Economic Growth
3.4 Taxes
3.4.1 VAT
3.4.2 Income and Corporate Taxes

4 COMMONWEALTH INDEPENDENT STATES (CIS) AND CENTRAL-EAST EUROPE (CEE) POWER MARKET
4.1 General Electricity Market Information
4.2 Photovoltaics (Solar PV) in the Energy Sector
4.3 Single Electricity Market of the European Union
4.4 CIS States Common Electricity Market (CIS CEM)
4.5 Electricity Market Concept of Eurasian Economic Union

5 COMMONWEALTH INDEPENDENT STATES (CIS)  PHOTOVOLTAIC (SOLAR PV) POWER MARKET
5.1 Market Overview
5.2 Cumulative (CAGR) Installed Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Capacity and Revenue
5.3 Annual Installed Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Capacity and Revenue
5.4 Future Development Trends

6 BELARUS POWER MARKET
6.1 Electricity Transmission and Distribution
6.2 Wholesale Power Market Structure in Belarus
6.3 Tariff Regulation in Power Sector in Belarus
6.4 Electricity Consumption and Generation
6.5 Electricity Imports and Exports
6.6 Electricity Prices for Business and Households
6.7 Renewable Energy Sources (RES) Targets

7 BELARUS PHOTOVOLTAIC (SOLAR PV) POWER MARKET
7.1 Why Invest in Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power in Belarus?
7.2 Belarus Solar Resource Potential
7.3 Licensing Period Duration
7.4 Regional Substation Capacities for Solar PV Power Projects in Belarus
7.5 Overview of Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power Market in Belarus
7.6 Market Structure Analysis
7.7 Investment Trends and Development Roadmap
7.8 Competitive Environment in Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power Market
7.9 Profiles of Key Players and Investors in Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power Market
7.10 Cumulative (CAGR) Installed Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Capacity and Revenue
7.11 Annual Installed Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Capacity
7.12 Market Prices for Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power Projects in Belarus in Development, Ready to Build and Operational (Grid Connected) Condition
7.13 Key Cost Structure Elements of Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power Plant in Belarus
7.14 Levelized Cost of Energy (LCOE) for Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power in Belarus
7.15 Key Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power Projects in Belarus Under Development
7.16 Mergers and Acquisitions

8 DRIVERS AND CONSTRAINTS OF PHOTOVOLTAIC (SOLAR PV) MARKET IN BELARUS. SWOT ANALYSIS
8.1 Market Drivers
8.2 Market Drivers Explained
8.3 Market Constraints
8.4 Market Constraints Explained
8.5 SWOT Analysis

9 FINANCIAL ANALYSIS OF PHOTOVOLTAIC (SOLAR PV) MARKET IN BELARUS
9.1 Financing Options of Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power Projects in Belarus
9.1.1 Belarus Sustainable Energy Financing Facility (BelSEFF)
9.1.2 EU4Energy Programme
9.2 Financial Model and Analysis of 5 MW Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power Plant investment in Belarus (IRR, WACC, Payback, NPV, Cash Flow, ETC.)

10 TECHNOLOGY ANALYSIS
10.1 Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Technology Overview
10.2 Technology Trends

11 CIS COUNTRIES RENEWABLE ENERGY POLICY LANDSCAPE
11.1 RES Regulations and Directives of the European Union (EU) affecting CIS countries
11.1.1 Precedent Regulations
11.1.2 EU 2030 Framework for Climate and Energy Policies
11.1.3 EU Energy Roadmap 2050
11.2 RES Strategy for CIS Countries Developed by UN ECE
11.2.1 Development of Educational Activity and Personnel Training
11.3 Renewable Energy Sources (RES) Mandatory Targets for CIS Countries

12 BELARUS RENEWABLE ENERGY SOURCES (RES) LEGAL AND REGULATORY FRAMEWORK
12.1 Main Laws and Regulations
12.2 Support Schemes
12.3 Recent and Pending Changes in Renewable Energy Law in Belarus
12.4 Zoning, Planning and Construction Related Authorizations
12.5 Environmental Related Authorizations
12.5.1 Environment Protected Areas
12.5.2 Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) and Joint Implementation (JI)
12.6 Energy Law Authorizations
12.6.1 Power Generation Licensing
12.6.2 Grid Interconnection and Quota Limitations
12.6.3 Power Off-Take
12.6.4 Feed-in tariff (FIT)
12.6.5 RES Certificates (Guarantees of Origin)
12.7 Future Market Pricing Mechanisms

13 KEY STAKEHOLDERS AFFECTING PHOTOVOLTAIC (SOLAR PV) POWER MARKET DEVELOPMENT IN BELARUS
13.1 Government Stakeholders
13.2 Non-Government Stakeholders
13.3 Electricity Generation, Transmission System Operator (TSO) and Distribution System Operators (DSO’s)

14 CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS

15 LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS

16 REFERENCES

17 DISCLAIMER

APPENDIX I. SOLAR MAPS OF CIS COUNTRIES AND BELARUS
APPENDIX II. CALCULATIONS DESCRIPTION TO FINANCIAL MODEL

List of Maps
Map 1: Where is Belarus on the CIS Countries Map    
MAP 2: Major Transport Corridors Passing Through Belarus    
MAP 3: Belarus Administrative Regions Map    
MAP 4: The Synchronous Grids of Europe and the CIS States  
MAP 5: Interconnection Grid Map of Central-East Europe and the CIS States    
Map 6: Electricity Grid Map of Belarus (750-330-220-110 kV)    
Map 7: Solar Resource Map of Belarus    
MAP 8: Environment Protected Areas in Belarus    
MAP 9: Solar Irradiation and Solar Electricity Potential for Horizontally Mounted Photovoltaic Modules in Europe and CIS countries      
Map 10: Solar Irradiation and Solar Electricity Potential for Optimally Inclined Photovoltaic Modules in Europe and CIS Countries     

List of Charts
Chart 1: Belarus Real GDP Growth for the Period 2000-2027 (including forecast)    
Chart 2: Belarus GDP Growth Compared to EU-27 for the Period 2002 ÷ 2027 (including forecast)    
Chart 3: Corporate Tax Income in Selected Central-East Europe (CEE) and Commonwealth Independent States (CIS)     
Chart 4: Physical Energy Flows Values in GW in Central-East Europe (CEE) and Commonwealth Independent States (CIS) in 2017    
Chart 5: Share of Renewables in Electricity Generation in Selected Central-East Europe (CEE) Countries and Commonwealth Independent States (CIS), 2017 (in %)   
Chart 6: Average Base Load Electricity Price in Selected European Countries (EUR/MWh): 2008 - 2018; Renewable Market Watch    
Chart 7: Forecast for RES Generation Capacity by Source Type in the EU to 2020 and 2030 (in GW)   
Chart 8: Net Power Generation Added Capacities in the EU 28 in 2017 (MW)    
Chart 9: Age of Power Plants in Europe in 2017   
Chart 10: Share of New Power Generation Capacities Added in the EU 28 in 2017 (MW)    
Chart 11: Installed Power Generating Capacity per Year (MW) and Renewable Share (in %) 2000 – 2017    
Chart 12: New Installed and Decommissioned Power Generation Capacity in the EU 27 for 2017 (GW)  
Chart 13: Cumulative (CAGR) Installed Capacity of Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power Plants (in MW) in the Commonwealth Independent States (CIS) 2007-2027, including forecast    
Chart 14: Cumulative (CAGR)  Revenue of Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power Plants (in Millions USD) in the Commonwealth Independent States (CIS) 2007-2027, including forecast    
Chart 15: Annual Installed Capacity of Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power Plants (in MW) in the Commonwealth Independent States (CIS) 2007-2027, including forecast    
Chart 16: Annual Revenue of Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power Plants (in Millions USD) Commonwealth Independent States (CIS) 2007-2027, including forecast    
Chart 17: Synchronous High Voltage Grids Operation of Power Systems of Belarus, Russia, Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania (BRELL)    
Chart 18: Structure of the Power Market in Belarus    
Chart 19: Wholesale Power Market Structure in Belarus    
Chart 20: Tariff Regulation in Power Sector of Belarus    
Chart 21: Share of RES electricity from Total Installed Power Capacity in Belarus in 2017    
Chart 22: Belarus Total Annual Electricity Consumption (in TWh) 2000-2017    
Chart 23: Belarus Power Generation Capacity Breakdown by Source (Fuel) Type in 2017    
Chart 24: Electricity Imports and Exports in Belarus 2000 - 2026 (in TWh) including forecast    
Chart 25: Belarus Targets for Renewable Energy Sources (RES) by 2030 (in %)    
Chart 26: Cumulative (CAGR) Installed Capacity of Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power  Plants in Belarus (in MW) 2007-2027, including forecast     
Chart 27: Cumulative (CAGR) Revenue of Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power  Plants in Belarus (in Millions USD) 2007-2027, including forecast    
Chart 28: Annual Installed Capacity of Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power Plants in Belarus (in MW) 2007-2027, including forecast    
Chart 29: Levelized Cost of Energy (LCOE) for Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power in Belarus    
Chart 30: BelSEFF Structure    
Chart 31: Cumulative Cash Flows and Break-Even Point of 5 MW Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power Plant Investment in Belarus    
Chart 32: Photovoltaic (Solar PV) System Price Evolution (€/Wp) 1990 - 2018     
Chart 33: Corporate Governance Structure of Belenergo     

List of Tables
Table 1: Electricity Prices for Business and Households    
Table 2: Support Schemes for Renewable Energy Sources (RES) Generation in the EU Countries and CIS Countries    
Table 4: Market Prices for Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Projects in Belarus for 2018 - 2027 in Development, Ready to Build and Operational (Grid Connected) Condition (2018 Update)    
Table 5: Key Cost Structure Elements of Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power Plant in Belarus    
Table 6: Database with Major Operational (Grid Connected), Under Construction and Planned Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Projects in Belarus    
Table 7: Key Financial Parameters of 5 MW Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power Plant Investment in Belarus    
Table 8: Key Financial Viability Indicators of 5 MW Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power Plant Investment in Belarus (IRR, NPV, Payback, Benefit-Cost)    
Table 9: Project Costs and Savings (Income) Summary of 5 MW Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power Plant Investment in Belarus    
Table 10: Yearly Cash Flows of 5 MW Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power Plant Investment in Belarus (Pre-tax, After-tax, Cumulative)    
Table 11: Crystalline Module Price Trend in 2018    
Table 12: Feed-in-tariffs (FiT) for Electricity from Renewable Energy Sources (RES) in Belarus

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