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The Latin America Telecoms Market: Trends & Forecasts 2019-2024

  • ID: 4807668
  • Report
  • July 2019
  • Region: Latin America
  • 42 Pages
  • Analysys Mason Group
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Fixed Broadband Revenue in Latin America will Increase at a CAGR of 5.3% Between 2018 and 2024, Driven by the Rapid Adoption of NGA-Based and 4G/5G BFWA Services

Telecoms retail revenue in Latin America (LATAM) will increase by nearly 8% between 2019 and 2024. This report provides an analysis of the main telecoms trends in Latin America and explains how they will evolve in the next 5 years.

The telecoms sector in Latin America (LATAM) will grow slowly between 2019 and 2024, driven by mobile data services and the increased adoption of next-generation access (NGA). This report provides a full update of our 5-year forecast of more than 180 mobile and fixed KPIs for LATAM as a whole and for six key countries.

This report and associated data annex provide:

  • A 5-year forecast of more than 180 mobile and fixed KPIs for the LATAM region as a whole and for six key countries.
  • An in-depth analysis of the trends, drivers and forecast assumptions for each type of mobile and fixed service, and for key countries.
  • An overview of operator strategies and country-specific topics, in order to highlight similarities and differences by means of a cross-country comparison.
  • A summary of results, key implications and recommendations for mobile and fixed operators.
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1. Executive summary and recommendations

  • Mobile handset, fixed broadband and pay-TV revenue will be the main drivers of telecoms retail revenue growth in Latin America
  • Telecoms retail revenue in Latin America will increase, but at a slower rate than other areas of the region’s economy
  • Geographical coverage: NGA and 4G/5G connectivity will increase considerably across the region thanks to strong investment from operators
  • Key trends, drivers and assumptions for the mobile and fixed markets
  • Key recommendations for telecoms operators

2. Regional forecasts and cross-country comparison

  • Market context: growth in the telecoms sector in Latin America will be limited despite the continuing economic recovery
  • Key mergers, acquisitions and market entries
  • Key drivers at a glance for each country in Latin America
  • Market overview: fixed broadband, mobile handset and specialist business services will account for the majority of telecoms revenue growth in next 5 years
  • Mobile: 4G and 5G will account for a majority of the mobile connections in Latin America by 2024
  • Mobile: mobile ARPU will increase during the forecast period as subscribers continue to move from prepaid to contract services
  • Mobile: 5G is expected to be launched between 2021 and 2022 in most of the countries in Latin America, and will rapidly penetrate the mobile market
  • Fixed: fixed broadband revenue will increase in Latin America as subscribers switch from DSL to more-expensive cable, fibre and BFWA services
  • Fixed: the adoption of faster technologies will drive FBB ASPU growth in most countries in Latin America except Peru and Mexico
  • Fixed: retail revenue will grow during the forecast period, driven by expanded fixed broadband coverage and increasing specialist business revenue
  • Specialist business services: services revenue from dedicated connections as well as revenue from other business services, will increase during the forecast period
  • IoT: revenue from the IoT value chain in LATAM will double between 2018and 2024, but it will still only account for a small fraction of the telecoms retail revenue
  • Pay TV: the market will continue to be dominated by cable and DTH; operators’ activities in the OTT market will be limited during the forecast period

3. Individual country forecasts

  • Argentina: telecoms revenue will decline as consumer spending falls and operators’ investments slow due to the economic crisis in the country
  • Argentina: despite challenging market conditions, the share of 4G, 5G and fibre connections will grow significantly during the forecast period
  • Argentina: the telecoms market is expected to change in the coming years as operators move away from DSL and introduce converged services
  • Argentina: forecast changes
  • Brazil: telecoms retail revenue will increase, supported by a recovering economy
  • Brazil: the share of 4G and 5G connections will increase during the forecast period; data usage will therefore increase
  • Brazil: fibre optic will become the main fixed broadband technology by 2024
  • Brazil: forecast changes
  • Chile: the rapid take-up of smartphones and the demand for high-speed broadband will drive the total telecoms revenue growth in the region
  • Chile: declining revenue from voice services will hamper revenue growth in the fixed segment
  • Chile: network investments and a stable economic outlook will contribute to the total telecoms service revenue growth
  • Chile: forecast changes
  • Colombia: telecoms retail revenue will increase supported by growth in both the fixed and mobile segments
  • Colombia: cable modem will become the dominant fixed broadband technology by 2024
  • Colombia: fixed broadband revenue will increase, driven by subscribers switching from DSL to more-expensive cable connections
  • Colombia: forecast changes
  • Mexico: revenue will grow within the forecast period, supported by increased revenue from mobile handsets, fixed broadband and business services
  • Mexico: an increase in the number of 4G and 5G connections is expected to result in rapid acceleration of data usage
  • Mexico: fixed broadband revenue will increase, driven by an increasing NGA footprint
  • Mexico: forecast changes
  • Peru: both the fixed and mobile segments will contribute to total service revenue growth in the forecast period
  • Peru: accelerated 4G service take-up, the launch of 5G services, and the growing demand for data will help to maintain relatively stable mobile ASPU
  • Peru: network investments and strong demand for data will be the main drivers of the total telecoms market revenue growth
  • Peru: forecast changes

4. Methodology

  • Our forecast model is supported by sound market knowledge
  • Examples of forecast input drivers
  • Key drivers at a glance table: methodology [1]
  • Key drivers at a glance table: methodology [2]
  • About the authors
  • About the authors
  • The publisher's consulting and research are uniquely positioned
  • Research from publisher
  • Consulting from publisher

FIGURES

Figure 1: Telecoms and pay-TV retail revenue, by type, and total service revenue, Latin America, 2014–2024
Figure 2: Growth in telecoms retail revenue and nominal GDP by country, Latin America, 2018–2024
Figure 3: 4G/5G share of mobile connections and NGA share of fixed broadband connections by country, Latin America, 2018 and 20241
Figure 4: Summary of key trends, drivers and assumptions for Latin America
Figure 5: Metrics for the six countries modelled individually in Latin America, 2018
Figure 6: Recent and upcoming market structure changes in Latin America
Figure 7: Major forecast drivers: current situation (2018) and future trajectory (2019–2024), by country, Latin America
Figure 8: Total fixed and mobile telecoms service revenue, Latin America (USD billion), 2014–2024
Figure 9: Mobile connections by type, Latin America (million), 2014–2024
Figure 10: Telecoms retail revenue and growth rate by service type, Latin America, 2014–2024
Figure 11: Fixed connections by type, Latin America (million), 2014–2024
Figure 12: Mobile connections by generation, Latin America (million), 2014–2024
Figure 13: Mobile ARPU by type, Latin America (USD per month), 2014–2024
Figure 14: Contract share of mobile connections (excluding IoT), Latin America, 2014–2024
Figure 15: Mobile data traffic per connection, Latin America (MB per month), 2014–2024
Figure 16: Mobile penetration by country, Latin America, 2014–2024
Figure 17: Mobile ARPU by country, Latin America, 2014–2024
Figure 18: Broadband connections by technology, Latin America (million), 2014–2024
Figure 19: Fixed retail revenue by service, Latin America (USD billion), 2014–2024
Figure 20: NGA broadband household penetration and NGA share of broadband connections, Latin America, 2014–2024
Figure 21: Fixed Internet traffic per broadband connection, Latin America (GB per month), 2014–2024
Figure 22: Fixed broadband household penetration by country, Latin America, 2014–2024
Figure 23: Fixed broadband access ASPU by country, Latin America, 2014–2024
Figure 24: Total market revenue from specialist business services, Latin America, 2014–2024
Figure 25: Total IoT value chain revenue by sector, Latin America, 2014–2024
Figure 26: Retail revenue from pay TV, Latin America, 2014–2024
Figure 27: Total fixed and mobile telecoms service revenue, Argentina (ARS billion), 2014–2024
Figure 28: Mobile connections by type, Argentina (million), 2014–2024
Figure 29: Telecoms retail revenue and growth rate by service type, Argentina, 2014–2024
Figure 30: Fixed connections by type, Argentina (million), 2014–2024
Figure 31: 4G, 5G and contract share of mobile connections, Argentina, 2014–2024
Figure 32: Mobile ARPU, fixed voice ASPU and fixed broadband ASPU, Argentina(ARS per month), 2014–2024
Figure 33: Mobile data traffic per connection, Argentina (MB per month), 2014–2024
Figure 34: Broadband connections by technology, Argentina (million), 2014–2024
Figure 35: Total telecoms service revenue – current and previous forecasts, Argentina, 2014–2024
Figure 36: Total fixed and mobile telecoms service revenue, Brazil (BRL billion)2014–2024
Figure 37: Mobile connections by type, Brazil (million), 2014–2024
Figure 38: Telecoms retail revenue and growth rate by service type, Brazil, 2014–2024
Figure 39: Fixed connections by type, Brazil (million), 2014–2024
Figure 40: 4G, 5G and contract share of mobile connections, Brazil, 2014–2024
Figure 41: Mobile ARPU, fixed voice ASPU and fixed broadband ASPU, Brazil (BRL per month), 2014–2024
Figure 42: Mobile data traffic per connection, Brazil (MB per month), 2014–2024
Figure 43: Broadband connections by technology, Brazil (million), 2014–2024
Figure 44: Total telecoms service revenue – current and previous forecasts, Brazil, 2014–2024
Figure 45: Total fixed and mobile telecoms service revenue, Chile (CLP trillion)2014–2024
Figure 46: Mobile connections by type, Chile (million), 2014–2024
Figure 47: Telecoms retail revenue and growth rate by service type, Chile, 2014–2024
Figure 48: Fixed connections by type, Chile (million), 2014–2024
Figure 49: 4G, 5G and contract share of mobile connections, Chile, 2014–2024
Figure 50: Mobile ARPU, fixed voice ASPU and fixed broadband ASPU, Chile (CLP thousand per month), 2014–2024
Figure 51: Mobile data traffic per connection, Chile (MB per month), 2014–2024
Figure 52: Broadband connections by technology, Chile (million), 2014–2024
Figure 53: Total telecoms service revenue – current and previous forecasts, Chile, 2014–2024
Figure 54: Total fixed and mobile telecoms service revenue, Colombia (COP trillion), 2014–2024
Figure 55: Mobile connections by type, Colombia (million), 2014–2024
Figure 56: Telecoms retail revenue and growth rate by service type, Colombia, 2014–2024
Figure 57: Fixed connections by type, Colombia (million), 2014–2024
Figure 58: 4G, 5G and contract share of mobile connections, Colombia, 2014–2024
Figure 59: Mobile ARPU, fixed voice ASPU and fixed broadband ASPU, Colombia (COP thousand per month), 2014–2024
Figure 60: Mobile data traffic per connection, Colombia (MB per month), 2014–2024
Figure 61: Broadband connections by technology, Colombia (million), 2014–2024
Figure 62: Total telecoms service revenue – current and previous forecasts, Colombia, 2014–2024
Figure 63: Total fixed and mobile telecoms service revenue, Mexico (MXN billion), 2014–2024
Figure 64: Mobile connections by type, Mexico (million), 2014–2024
Figure 65: Telecoms retail revenue and growth rate by service type, Mexico, 2014–2024
Figure 66: Fixed connections by type, Mexico (million), 2014–2024
Figure 67: 4G, 5G and contract share of mobile connections, Mexico, 2014–2024
Figure 68: Mobile ARPU, fixed voice ASPU and fixed broadband ASPU, Mexico (MXN per month), 2014–2024
Figure 69: Mobile data traffic per connection, Mexico (MB per month), 2014–2024
Figure 70: Broadband connections by technology, Mexico (million), 2014–2024
Figure 71: Total telecoms service revenue – current and previous forecasts, Mexico, 2014–2024
Figure 72: Total fixed and mobile telecoms service revenue, Peru (PEN billion), 2014–2024
Figure 73: Mobile connections by type, Peru (million), 2014–2024
Figure 74: Telecoms retail revenue and growth rate by service type, Peru, 2014–2024
Figure 75: Fixed connections by type, Peru (million), 2014–2024
Figure 76: 4G, 5G and contract share of mobile connections, Peru, 2014–2024
Figure 77: Mobile ARPU, fixed voice ASPU and fixed broadband ASPU, Peru(PEN per month), 2014–2024
Figure 78: Mobile data traffic per connection, Peru (MB per month), 2014–2024
Figure 79: Broadband connections by technology, Peru (million), 2014–2024
Figure 80: Total telecoms service revenue – current and previous forecasts, Peru, 2014–2024
Figure 81a: Methodology for attributing scores to each element in the key drivers table (current and future) and impact of high scores
Figure 81b: Methodology for attributing scores to each element in the key drivers table (current and future) and impact of high scores

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