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Mobile Services in Sub-Saharan Africa: Trends and Forecasts 2019-2024

  • ID: 4808176
  • Report
  • August 2019
  • Region: Africa
  • Analysys Mason Group
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Mobile Retail Revenue Will Continue to Increase in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) Over the Next 5 Years, to Will Reach USD40.3 Billion in 2024

Mobile services will continue to generate the vast majority of telecoms revenue in Sub-Saharan Africa, and will account for 86.6% of the total telecoms service revenue in the region in 2024.

The analyst expects that mobile retail revenue will continue to increase in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) over the next 5 years, and will reach USD40.3 billion in 2024 amid regulatory and macroeconomic challenges. This report examines key trends and drivers and provides comprehensive mobile telecoms market forecasts for the SSA region.

This report provides:

  • commentary and trend analysis to support our 5-year forecast for Sub-Saharan Africa
  • worldwide context, regional analysis and commentary
  • an overview of operator strategies and country-specific topics, which highlights similarities and differences between countries
  • a summary of results, key implications and recommendations for mobile operators.

Who Should Read this Report

  • Market intelligence, strategy and project managers at mobile operators in Sub-Saharan Africa.
  • Regulatory bodies in Sub-Saharan Africa.
  • Financial institutions that directly invest in the telecoms sector in the region, or advise others that do so.
  • Press and media bodies that need a foundation of knowledge of the mobile telecoms market in Sub-Saharan Africa.

Data coverage

Mobile connections

  • Handset, mobile broadband, M2M
  • Prepaid, contract
  • 2G, 3G, 4G, 5G
  • Smartphone, non-smartphone

Mobile revenue

  • Service, retail
  • Prepaid, contract
  • Handset, mobile broadband, IoT
  • Handset voice, messaging, data

Mobile ARPU

  • SIMs, handset
  • Prepaid, contract
  • Handset voice, data

Voice traffic

  • Outgoing minutes, MoU
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Chapter Nos.

6. Executive summary
7. Worldwide trends
8. Worldwide: mobile service revenue will increase during the forecast period, but there will be significant differences between regions
9. Regional trends
10. The fast adoption of mobile data services will help telecoms operators to maintain service revenue growth
11. The prepaid share of mobile connections will remain above 95%; this will play a role in keeping the ARPU low
12. Mobile penetration will increase across the region as increasing network coverage is balanced by the decreasing need for multiple SIMs
13. Consumer spending on data services and the migration to 3G/4G services will ensure a slower ARPU decline in some countries and increase ARPU in others
14. SSA will remain a developing region in terms of mobile technology take-up because 3G will become the dominant form of mobile access
15. Country-level trends
16. Ghana: the growing demand for data will provide potential for moderate growth in the number of mobile connections
17. Kenya: mobile market revenue will grow due to the increased network coverage and smartphone affordability
18. Nigeria: mobile data revenue will form a growing share of the total revenue despite the crowded market and difficult economic conditions
19. South Africa: there will be sustained growth in the mobile market thanks to a strengthening economy and improved network coverage
20. Tanzania: mobile service revenue will keep growing during the forecast period despite intense competition in the market
21. Uganda: there is potential for organic mobile revenue growth, but poverty and a large rural population will make it difficult to realise the potential
22. Forecast methodology and assumptions
23. Our forecast model is supported by sound market knowledge
24. Examples of forecast input drivers
25. About the authors

List of figures
Figure 1: Telecoms and pay-TV retail revenue by type and total service revenue, Sub-Saharan Africa, 2014–2024
Figure 2: Mobile service revenue by location, Sub-Saharan Africa and worldwide, 2014–2024
Figure 3: Telecoms retail revenue by mobile service type, and mobile ARPU, Sub-Saharan Africa, 2014–2024
Figure 4: Telecoms retail revenue and growth rate by service type, Sub-Saharan Africa, 2014–2024
Figure 5: Mobile connections by type, Sub-Saharan Africa (million), 2014–2024
Figure 6: Mobile connections by generation, Sub-Saharan Africa (million), 2014–2024
Figure 7: Mobile ARPU by type, Sub-Saharan Africa (USD per month), 2014– 2024
Figure 8: Contract share of mobile connections (excluding IoT), Sub-Saharan  Africa, 2014–2024
Figure 9: Mobile data traffic per connection, Sub-Saharan Africa (MB per  month), 2014–2024
Figure 10a: Mobile penetration by country, Sub-Saharan Africa, 2014–2024
Figure 10b: Mobile penetration by country, Sub-Saharan Africa, 2014–2024
Figure 11a: Mobile ARPU by country, Sub-Saharan Africa, 2014–2024
Figure 11b: Mobile ARPU by country, Sub-Saharan Africa, 2014–2024
Figure 12: Mobile ARPU, Ghana (GHS per month), 2014–2024
Figure 13: Mobile connections by type, Ghana (million), 2014–2024
Figure 14: Mobile ARPU, Kenya (KES thousand per month), 2014–2024
Figure 15: Mobile connections by type, Kenya (million), 2014–2024
Figure 16: Mobile ARPU, Nigeria (NGN thousand per month), 2014–2024
Figure 17: Mobile connections by type, Nigeria (million), 2014–2024
Figure 18: Mobile ARPU, South Africa (ZAR per month), 2014–2024
Figure 19: Mobile connections by type, South Africa (million), 2014–2024
Figure 20: Mobile ARPU, Tanzania (TZS thousand per month), 2014–2024
Figure 21: Mobile connections by type, Tanzania (million), 2014–2024
Figure 22: Mobile ARPU, Uganda (UGX thousand per month), 2014–2024
Figure 23: Mobile connections by type, Uganda (million), 2014–2024

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  • Ghana
  • Kenya
  • Nigeria
  • South Africa
  • Tanzania
  • Uganda
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