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The Emerging Asia-Pacific Telecoms Market: Trends and Forecasts 2019-2024

  • ID: 4816426
  • Report
  • Region: Asia Pacific
  • 44 Pages
  • Analysys Mason Group
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Telecoms Service Revenue in Emerging Asia-Pacific will Continue its Upward Trend, Despite Increasing Pressure from Market Competition and Government Regulation

FEATURED COMPANIES

The emerging Asia-Pacific (EMAP) region contains some of the most dynamic telecoms markets and fastest growing economies in the world. This report examines key trends and drivers and provides comprehensive telecoms market forecasts and insights for the region and for six modelled countries.

This report and associated data annex provide:

  • A 5-year forecast of more than 180 mobile and fixed KPIs for the EMAP region as a whole and for 13 key countries
  • An in-depth analysis of the trends, drivers and forecast assumptions for each type of mobile and fixed service, and for key countries
  • An overview of operator strategies and country-specific topics, in order to highlight similarities and differences by means of a cross-country comparison
  • A summary of results, key implications, and recommendations for mobile and fixed operators.
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FEATURED COMPANIES

1. Executive summary and recommendations

  • Revenue from both mobile and fixed services will increase steadily during the forecast period
  • The total telecoms retail revenue is expected to grow in all countries but at different rates
  • Geographical coverage: most countries will see significant growth in the adoption of 4G/5G and NGA
  • Key trends, drivers and assumptions for the mobile and fixed markets
  • Key recommendations for telecoms operators

2. Regional forecasts and cross-country comparison

  • Market context: a higher GDP per capita tends to lead to a higher fixed broadband household penetration
  • Key mergers, acquisitions and market entries
  • Key drivers at a glance for each emerging Asia-Pacific market
  • Market overview: the total telecoms service revenue will continue to grow, driven by the increasing number of connections
  • Mobile: monthly data consumption per connection will increase six-fold during 2018-2024, but the contract share of mobile connections will only grow marginally
  • Mobile: mobile penetration rates will increase in most countries, and will only decline in Cambodia and Malaysia due to a fall in multi-SIM ownership
  • Mobile: ARPU will decline in most countries during the forecast period due to growing competition and regulatory pressure
  • Mobile: increasing subscriber numbers and rising mobile data revenue will support the growth of mobile service revenue over the forecast period
  • Fixed: 91% of fixed broadband connections will be FTTP/B in 2024 due to significant investment in coverage expansion and migration from DSL
  • Fixed: China will continue to lead in terms of fixed broadband penetration, but rapid FTTP/B roll-outs in other countries means that the gap will narrow
  • Fixed: the lowest broadband ASPU in the region is in China thanks to government regulation and intense infrastructure competition
  • Fixed: competition and investment in NGA will drive the growth of fixed broadband household penetration in many countries in EMAP
  • Specialist business services: the demands for data connectivity and cloud will continue to drive other business services revenue growth
  • IoT: the automotive, smart buildings and smart cities sectors have the greatest potential for revenue growth
  • Pay TV: IPTV and DTH will drive future pay-TV retail revenue growth

3. Individual country forecasts

  • China: the total service revenue will continue to grow, but the market is reaching saturation point
  • China: growth in the adoption of 5G will accelerate from 2020
  • China: the Chinese telecoms market is the most-advanced telecoms market in EMAP
  • China: forecast changes
  • Indonesia: the number of mobile connections will recover rapidly following the large drop due to the 2018 prepaid SIM card registration regulation
  • Indonesia: the take-up of FTTP/B has grown rapidly; FTTP/B is now by far the most-widespread fixed broadband technology in Indonesia
  • Indonesia: ARPU will rise following the implementation of the prepaid SIM card registration regulation
  • Indonesia: forecast changes
  • Malaysia: mobile revenue growth will be marginal, but fixed service revenue will increase steadily during the forecast period
  • Malaysia: the number of fixed broadband connections will increase due to fibre network investment and the renewed popularity of BFWA
  • Malaysia: high levels of competition will limit the total telecoms revenue growth during the forecast period
  • Malaysia: forecast changes
  • Philippines: the expected entry of a third MNO and a challenging regulatory environment will lead to a moderate increase in mobile retail revenue
  • Philippines: the number of FBB connections will grow due to the strong take-up of fibre-based access
  • Philippines: competition will intensify in both the fixed and mobile markets following the commercial launch of Dito’s services
  • Philippines: forecast changes
  • Thailand: total service revenue growth will be flat; marginal increases in fixed broadband revenue will be offset by the decreasing mobile revenue
  • Thailand: Thailand has some of the highest mobile data traffic per connection figures in the region
  • Thailand: extensive FTTH deployments will be the main driver for FBB revenue growth
  • Thailand: forecast changes
  • Vietnam: price competition in the prepaid mobile segment will lead to a decline in mobile service revenue
  • Vietnam: fibre will be the dominant technology in the fixed broadband market thanks to extensive FTTH roll-outs
  • Vietnam: high levels of competition will remain in the mobile and fixed markets during the forecast period
  • Vietnam: forecast changes

4. Methodology

  • Our forecast model is supported by sound market knowledge
  • Examples of forecast input drivers
  • Key drivers at a glance table: methodology [1]
  • Key drivers at a glance table: methodology [2]
  • About the authors

List of figures:

Figure 1: Telecoms and pay-TV1 retail revenue by type and total service revenue, emerging Asia-Pacific, 2014-2024
Figure 2: Growth in telecoms retail revenue and nominal GDP by country, emerging Asia-Pacific, 2018-2024
Figure 3: 4G/5G share of mobile connections and NGA share of fixed broadband connections by country, emerging Asia-Pacific, 2018 and 20241
Figure 4: Summary of key trends, drivers and assumptions for emerging Asia-Pacific
Figure 5: Metrics for the 13 countries modelled individually in emerging Asia-Pacific, 2018
Figure 6: Recent and upcoming market structure changes in emerging Asia-Pacific
Figure 7: Major forecast drivers: current situation (2018) and future trajectory (2019-2024), by country, emerging Asia-Pacific
Figure 8: Total fixed and mobile telecoms service revenue, emerging Asia-Pacific (USD billion), 2014-2024
Figure 9: Mobile connections by type, emerging Asia-Pacific (million), 2014-2024
Figure 10: Telecoms retail revenue and growth rate by service type, emerging Asia-Pacific, 2014-2024
Figure 11: Fixed connections by type, emerging Asia-Pacific (million), 2014-2024
Figure 12: Mobile connections by generation, emerging Asia-Pacific (million), 2014-2024
Figure 13: Mobile ARPU by type, emerging Asia-Pacific (USD per month), 2014-2024
Figure 14: Contract share of mobile connections (excluding IoT), emerging Asia-Pacific, 2014-2024
Figure 15: Mobile data traffic per connection, emerging Asia-Pacific (MB per month), 2014-2024
Figure 16a: Mobile penetration by country, emerging Asia-Pacific, 2014-2024
Figure 16b: Mobile penetration by country, emerging Asia-Pacific, 2014-2024
Figure 17a: Mobile ARPU by country, emerging Asia-Pacific, 2014-2024
Figure 17b: Mobile ARPU by country, emerging Asia-Pacific, 2014-2024
Figure 18: Broadband connections by technology, emerging Asia-Pacific (million), 2014-2024
Figure 19: Fixed retail revenue by service, emerging Asia-Pacific (USD billion), 2014-2024
Figure 20: NGA broadband household penetration and NGA share of broadband connections, emerging Asia-Pacific, 2014-2024
Figure 21: Fixed Internet traffic per broadband connection, emerging Asia-Pacific (GB per month), 2014-2024
Figure 22a: Fixed broadband household penetration by country, emerging Asia-Pacific, 2014-2024
Figure 22b: Fixed broadband household penetration by country, emerging Asia-Pacific, 2014-2024
Figure 23a: Fixed broadband access ASPU by country, emerging Asia-Pacific, 2014-2024
Figure 23b: Fixed broadband access ASPU by country, emerging Asia-Pacific, 2014-2024
Figure 24: Total market revenue from specialist business services, emerging Asia-Pacific, 2014-2024
Figure 25: Total IoT value chain revenue by sector, emerging Asia-Pacific, 2014-2024
Figure 26: Retail revenue from pay TV, emerging Asia-Pacific, 2014-2024
Figure 27: Total fixed and mobile telecoms service revenue, China (CNY trillion), 2014-2024
Figure 28: Mobile connections by type, China (billion), 2014-2024
Figure 29: Telecoms retail revenue and growth rate by service type, China, 2014-2024
Figure 30: Fixed connections by type, China (million), 2014-2024
Figure 31: 4G, 5G and contract share of mobile connections, China, 2014-2024
Figure 32: Mobile ARPU, fixed voice ASPU and fixed broadband ASPU, China (CNY per month), 2014-2024
Figure 33: Mobile data traffic per connection, China (MB per month), 2014-2024
Figure 34: Broadband connections by technology, China (million), 2014-2024
Figure 35: Total telecoms service revenue - current and previous forecasts, China, 2014-2024
Figure 36: Total fixed and mobile telecoms service revenue, Indonesia (IDR trillion), 2014-2024
Figure 37: Mobile connections by type, Indonesia (million), 2014-2024
Figure 38: Telecoms retail revenue and growth rate by service type, Indonesia, 2014-2024
Figure 39: Fixed connections by type, Indonesia (million), 2014-2024
Figure 40: 4G, 5G and contract share of mobile connections, Indonesia, 2014-2024
Figure 41: Mobile ARPU, fixed voice ASPU and fixed broadband ASPU, Indonesia (IDR thousand per month), 2014-2024
Figure 42: Mobile data traffic per connection, Indonesia (MB per month), 2014-2024
Figure 43: Broadband connections by technology, Indonesia (million), 2014-2024
Figure 44: Total telecoms service revenue - current and previous forecasts, Indonesia, 2014-2024
Figure 45: Total fixed and mobile telecoms service revenue, Malaysia (MYR billion), 2014-2024
Figure 46: Mobile connections by type, Malaysia (million), 2014-2024
Figure 47: Telecoms retail revenue and growth rate by service type, Malaysia, 2014-2024
Figure 48: Fixed connections by type, Malaysia (million), 2014-2024
Figure 49: 4G, 5G and contract share of mobile connections, Malaysia, 2014-2024
Figure 50: Mobile ARPU, fixed voice ASPU and fixed broadband ASPU, Malaysia (MYR per month), 2014-2024
Figure 51: Mobile data traffic per connection, Malaysia (MB per month), 2014-2024
Figure 52: Broadband connections by technology, Malaysia (million), 2014-2024
Figure 53: Total telecoms service revenue - current and previous forecasts, Malaysia, 2014-2024
Figure 54: Total fixed and mobile telecoms service revenue, Philippines (PHP billion), 2014-2024
Figure 55: Mobile connections by type, Philippines (million), 2014-2024
Figure 56: Telecoms retail revenue and growth rate by service type, Philippines, 2014-2024
Figure 57: Fixed connections by type, Philippines (million), 2014-2024
Figure 58: 4G, 5G and contract share of mobile connections, Philippines, 2014-2024
Figure 59: Mobile ARPU, fixed voice ASPU and fixed broadband ASPU, Philippines (PHP per month), 2014-2024
Figure 60: Mobile data traffic per connection, Philippines (MB per month), 2014-2024
Figure 61: Broadband connections by technology, Philippines (million), 2014-2024
Figure 62: Total telecoms service revenue - current and previous forecasts, Philippines, 2014-2024
Figure 63: Total fixed and mobile telecoms service revenue, Thailand (THB billion), 2014-2024
Figure 64: Mobile connections by type, Thailand (million), 2014-2024
Figure 65: Telecoms retail revenue and growth rate by service type, Thailand, 2014-2024
Figure 66: Fixed connections by type, Thailand (million), 2014-2024
Figure 67: 4G, 5G and contract share of mobile connections, Thailand, 2014-2024
Figure 68: Mobile ARPU, fixed voice ASPU and fixed broadband ASPU, Thailand (THB per month), 2014-2024
Figure 69: Mobile data traffic per connection, Thailand (MB per month), 2014-2024
Figure 70: Broadband connections by technology, Thailand (million), 2014-2024
Figure 71: Total telecoms service revenue - current and previous forecasts, Thailand, 2014-2024

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