Global Agriculture: Global population to reach 10bn in 2050, dramatic changes to food supply are needed

Table of Contents

• Executive Summary
• Food Wastage: A serious threat to global agricultural sustainability
• Climate Change: A major threat for agriculture, unless greenhouse emissions can be reduced
• Soil Degradation: Problems require solutions to enable land to feed 10 billion
• Agricultural Sustainability: Critical to maintaining the ecosystem balance
• Agriculture Technology: Innovation takes bite out of global food gap
• Government Intervention: New schemes needed to feed a hungry population
• Food Wastage: A serious threat to global agricultural sustainability
• Supply chain development will help to reduce wastage in transit
• Technology is helping to track degradation of food in the supply chain
• Consumer demands make feeding an expanding population far harder than it ought to be, but change is occurring
• Badly implemented subsidies encourage wasted food production, but when done well help farmers produce more
• African nations are developing subsidies to improve farming performances
• Climate Change: A major threat for agriculture, unless greenhouse emissions can be reduced
• Food production is contributing to climate change, which is simultaneously damaging agriculture
• Insect pests are thriving under the rising temperatures, causing losses in crops and their nutritious value
• Climate change has made extreme weather more sporadic, forcing crops dependent upon cyclical events to suffer
• Soil erosion from extreme weather conditions reduces the fertility of soil, whilst compacting the ground to reduce the quality of water going into the crops
• Rising sea-levels cause an increase in flooding, damaging crops with salt water contamination
• Droughts are the biggest concern for agriculture by damaging plant life, facilitating insect pests and risking food spoilage during transport
• Rising carbon dioxide levels is increasing plant growth, but at the consequence of reducing their nutritious value
• Climate migrants are forced to leave their homes because of climate change, congesting areas which are needed to feed the growing population
• Soil Degradation: Problems require solutions to enable land to feed 10 billion
• Large areas of land have been poisoned, toughening the task of feeding a growing population
• Threat of large-scale disease could deter consumers from buying Chinese grown foodstuffs
• Desertification causing soil degradation in Africa is straining agricultural production
• Farming in areas of deforestation is unsustainable on a long-term basis
• Agricultural Sustainability: Critical to maintaining ecosystem balance
• Biotechnology and genetically modified crops are a controversial topic
• The consequences of genetically modified crops
• The implementation of genetically modified crops has to be introduced with extreme caution in developed countries
• Genetically modified crops can affect the environment
• Efficient agricultural land use: land sparing vs land sharing
• Land sparing could increase food production for future generations
• Wildlife friendly farming could increase the chances of preserving the animal inhabitants, but it would reduce food production
• Water efficiency will not only increase food production but it will decrease the amounts of clean water being used
• Improvements in soil health and fertility are needed in order for farming lands to be a sustainable food source for the future
• Minimal or zero-pesticide use can boost soil productivity in the long-run
• Agriculture Technology: Innovation takes bite out of global food gap
• Food Gap - Food production must increase by 2050
• Historical agricultural crop yields reflect the potential and limitations of increasingly efficient crops
• New technologies to increase food production
• Digitization is enabling the quantification of farming
• Agricultural Drones will make crop management and production more efficient and effective
• Advanced analysis methods are turning agriculture into a precision industry
• Advanced biological farming methods will achieve further yield increases for crops
• Food loss must decrease by 2050
• Digitization within emerging economies will reduce production loss
• Blockchain technology has potential to ‘leapfrog’ existing track and trace infrastructure
• Computational learning models will better manage supply chains in real-time, reducing loss
• In the developing world, AI will drive improvements in the customer experience, reducing consumption loss
• Genetic engineering will lead to heathier and longer-lasting food
• Food will become personalized based on healthcare needs
• Technology to address the land gap
• Access to the digital world will strengthen ownership rights and legal certainty for subsistence farmers
• Better techniques to analyze risk will incentivize lending, reduce poverty and shift production to large-scale commercialization
• Microcredit as a mechanism for alleviating poverty
• The only way is up for modern farming approaches
• Lab-grown meat will be a mainstay in future diets
• Government Intervention: New schemes needed to feed a hungry population
• Agricultural subsidies are intended to increase production of vital crops
• Effectiveness of agricultural subsidies has come under scrutiny
• Regulate and dismantle multinational agribusiness corporations
• Child limitation policies to combat food shortages
• Taxes to discourage meat-rich diets
• Greater commitment to research & development to improve yields
• Promotion of private sector investment
• Political mobilization to reduce the prevalence of hunger and malnutrition
• Key Findings
• Appendix
• Sources
• Further reading
• Definitions
• Ask the analyst
• About the Author
• Disclaimer

List of Figures
Figure 1: Estimated population and food supply changes between 2019-2050
Figure 2: Tesco waste by category, 2017 to 2018
Figure 3: Spoiler Alert
Figure 4: Tesco consumer waste for vegetables and fruit, 2014
Figure 5: Hugh Fearnley-Whittingstall
Figure 6: African exports ($bn) of edible vegetables and certain roots and tubers 2009 to 2017
Figure 7: Average global temperatures 1860-2020
Figure 8: Map of China detailing soil contamination risk, 2017
Figure 9: Baby milk formula discarded in China in protest at contamination
Figure 10: Desertification in Annakila, Mali
Figure 11: Loess Plateau, China, before and after regenerative agriculture
Figure 12: Deforestation farming in Amazon rainforest, Brazil
Figure 13: Fate of deforested forest land in Indonesia, 2011
Figure 14: Agricultural sustainability model
Figure 15: Global Area of Biotech Crops, 1996 to 2016
Figure 16: Global Area of Biotech Crops in 2015 and 2016: by Country (million hectares)
Figure 17: Global Area of Biotech Crops in 2015 and 2016: by Country (million hectares)
Figure 18: Land sparing, density vs yield
Figure 19: Land sharing, density vs yield
Figure 20: Average fertilizer application rates for select countries 2002- 2014 measured in kilograms of nutrient per hectare of arable land
Figure 21: Fertilizer products cover nitrogenous, potash, and phosphate fertilizers (including ground rock phosphate). Animal and plant manures are not included.
Figure 22: Global nitrogenous fertilizer production, measured in tons of nitrogen produced per year 1961-2014
Figure 23: Long-term agricultural yields in the UK 1870-2014
Figure 24: Average corn yields in the USA, 1866-2014
Figure 25: In developing countries, 20% of food grown is lost during production and handling
Figure 26: In developed countries 14% of food produced is lost at the consumption stage
Figure 27: Development of CAP expenditure over the years as a share of the EU budget 1980-2017
Figure 28: China’s age group as a share of population 2000- 2020
Figure 29: Meat production has surged in the past 50 years
Figure 30: Beef/Mutton is the biggest strain on land
Figure 31: Yield of cereals and oilseed rape on agricultural holdings in the UK, in tonnes per hectre 2014-2018
Figure 32: Share of Central Government Expenditure on Agriculture (%) 2001-2017
Figure 33: Global number of individuals undernourished 2007-2017
Figure 34: Number of undernourished people since 2000