This Market Spotlight report covers the Idiopathic Pulmonary Fibrosis market, comprising key marketed and pipeline drugs, clinical trials, recent events and analyst opinion, upcoming and regulatory events, probability of success, patent information, 10-year disease incidence and prevalence forecasts, and licensing and acquisition deals, as well as presenting drug-specific revenue forecasts.
- It is estimated that in 2018, there were 305,450 incident and 940,840 prevalent cases of idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF) in adults aged 20 years and older worldwide, and forecasts those numbers to increase to 342,000 incident cases and 1.1 million prevalent cases by 2027.
- Roche’s Esbriet and Boehringer Ingelheim’s Ofev are the only approved drugs for IPF. These drugs are administered via the oral route.
- Industry-sponsored drugs in active clinical development for IPF are spread evenly across Phase I and Phase II, with two drugs in Phase III.
- Therapies in development for IPF focus on a wide variety of targets. The majority of pipeline drugs in development are administered via an oral formulation.
- The only high-impact upcoming event in the IPF space is topline Phase IIa trial results for PLN-74809. The overall likelihood of approval of a Phase I respiratory-other asset is 9%, and the average probability a drug advances from Phase III is 53.8%. Drugs, on average, take 11.3 years from Phase I to approval, compared to 9.5 years in the overall respiratory space.
- There have been 22 licensing and asset acquisition deals involving IPF drugs during 2014–19. The $4,275m global research and development collaboration agreement signed in 2019 between Gilead and Galapagos, pursuant to which Gilead gained access to Galapagos’s drug discovery platform and current and future pipeline outside of Europe, was the largest deal.
- The distribution of clinical trials across Phase I–IV indicates that the majority of trials for IPF have been in the early and midphases of development, with 64% of trials in Phase I–II, and 36% in Phase III–IV.
- The US has a substantial lead in the number of IPF clinical trials globally. The UK leads the major EU markets, while Israel has the top spot in Asia.
- Clinical trial activity in the IPF space is dominated by completed trials. Boehringer Ingelheim has the highest number of completed clinical trials for IPF, with 15 trials.
- Boehringer Ingelheim leads industry sponsors with the highest overall number of clinical trials for IPF, followed by Roche.
- Disease definition
- Patient segmentation
- Risk factors
- Pharmacologic treatment
- Non-pharmacologic treatments
RECENT EVENTS AND ANALYST OPINION
- GLPG1690 for IPF (July 14, 2019)
- BG00011 for IPF (May 23, 2018)
- KD025 for IPF (May 22, 2018)
- Pamrevlumab for IPF (May 21, 2018)
- GLPG1690 for IPF (May 20, 2018)
- PBI-4050 for IPF (May 20, 2018)
- PRM-151 for IPF (May 20, 2018)
KEY UPCOMING EVENTS
KEY REGULATORY EVENTS
- BTD Makes Promedior’s PRM-151 Stand Out In IPF Race; Will Bristol Bite?
PROBABILITY OF SUCCESS
LICENSING AND ASSET ACQUISITION DEALS
- Boehringer Further Buoys IPF Portfolio With Bridge’s Autotaxin Inhibitor
- $5bn Galapagos Deal Won’t Be Last For Gilead, Says O’Day
- Galapagos Licenses Global Rights To Fibrocor’s IPF Program
- TiumBio Inks $74m License With Chiesi For Potential IPF Drug
- Deals Shaping The Medical Industry, October 2018
- United Therapeutics Licenses Rights To Samumed’s IPF Candidate
CLINICAL TRIAL LANDSCAPE
- Sponsors by status
- Sponsors by phase
- Recent events
- Prescription information
LIST OF FIGURES
Figure 1: Trends in incident cases of IPF, 2018–27
Figure 2: Trends in prevalent cases of IPF, 2018–27
Figure 3: Overview of pipeline drugs for IPF in the US
Figure 4: Pipeline drugs for IPF, by company
Figure 5: Pipeline drugs for IPF, by drug type
Figure 6: Pipeline drugs for IPF, by classification
Figure 7: KD025 for IPF (May 22, 2018): Phase II – 207
Figure 8: Pamrevlumab for IPF (May 21, 2018): Phase II – PRAISE
Figure 9: GLPG1690 for IPF (May 20, 2018): Phase IIa – FLORA
Figure 10: PBI-4050 for IPF (May 20, 2018): Phase II – Canada
Figure 11: PRM-151 for IPF (May 20, 2018): Phase II – PRM-151-202
Figure 12: Key upcoming events in IPF
Figure 13: Probability of success in the IPF pipeline
Figure 14: Licensing and asset acquisition deals in IPF, 2014–19
Figure 15: Parent patents in IPF
Figure 16: Clinical trials in IPF
Figure 17: Top 10 drugs for clinical trials in IPF
Figure 18: Top 10 companies for clinical trials in IPF
Figure 19: Trial locations in IPF
Figure 20: IPF trials status
Figure 21: IPF trials sponsors, by phase
LIST OF TABLES
Table 1: Incident cases of IPF, 2018–27
Table 2: Prevalent cases of IPF, 2018–27
Table 3: Marketed drugs for IPF
Table 4: Pipeline drugs for IPF in the US
Table 5: GLPG1690 for IPF (July 14, 2019)
Table 6: BG00011 for IPF (May 23, 2018)
Table 7: KD025 for IPF (May 22, 2018)
Table 8: Pamrevlumab for IPF (May 21, 2018)
Table 9: GLPG1690 for IPF (May 20, 2018)
Table 10: PBI-4050 for IPF (May 20, 2018)
Table 11: PRM-151 for IPF (May 20, 2018)
Table 12: Historical global sales, by drug ($m), 2014–18
Table 13: Forecasted global sales, by drug ($m), 2019–23