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Colombia 2022: Outlook and Scenarios

  • ID: 4846271
  • Country Profile
  • Region: Colombia
  • 44 pages
  • DuckerFrontier
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Overview
Following one of the most consequential elections in Colombia's modern history, the right-wing technocrat, Iván Duque, was elected as the nation's 33rd president- Duque ran an ambitious campaign promising to revive sluggish growth, revise the peace accord with the FARC rebel group, and diversify the oil-reliant economy- However, the administration has inherited a long list of challenges and fragmented congressional power that will create major obstacles and limits to achieving these objectives- Duque's administration is expected to have moderate success reviving growth through business-friendly reforms, but many of the gravest challenges will require ongoing political commitment beyond the president's term- Ultimately, Duque's presidency holds key implications for the future of Colombia's economic performance and business opportunities, both in the short and long terms.

What you will learn
  • The role of organizational design in strategic planning
  • Organizational footprint trends in Latin America
  • Actions for multinationals to take to succeed in global markets
What you will receive
  • Immediate access to the 47-page PDF report
  • Exclusive email updates covering emerging markets business topics
  • Special discounts on future report purchases
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Executive Summary
  • How to Read This Report
Setting the Context: Duque Inherits the Santos Legacy
  • Iván Duque Won a Polarizing Election
  • Duque Inherits a Weak Economy
  • Meet Duque's Technocratic Team
  • Other Essential Figures in Duque's Team
  • Multinationals are Reprioritizing Colombia
Key Challenges Duque's Administration Must Address
  • Oil Prices Complicate Growth Challenges
  • Key Growth Challenges to Tackle
  • Challenge 1: Mounting Fiscal Pressures
  • Duque Will Struggle to Meet Fiscal Targets
  • Challenge 2: Lack of Consensus on Peace
  • Major Peace Revisions Will Not Be Made
  • Challenge 3: Lackluster Investment
  • Investment Will Pick Up Under Duque
  • Challenge 4: Weak Internal Demand
  • Fiscal Reform Will Restrain Consumption
  • Challenge 5: Undiversified External Sector
  • Extractive Sector Policies Will Lift Exports
  • Challenge 6: Venezuela Creates Pressures
  • The Crisis Will Further Overwhelm Colombia
  • Challenge 7: Shifts in Global Risk Appetite
  • Global Conditions Will Weigh on Growth
  • Challenges Meet Fragile Political Capital
  • Voting Coalitions Matter Most for Duque
  • Market Disruptors Should Not Be Ignored
Colombia's Economic Outlook and 2019-2022 Scenarios
  • Colombia 2019-2022 Scenarios
Business Implications
  • Industry Impacts of Key Trends: Consumer
  • Industry Impacts of Key Trends: Healthcare
  • Industry Impacts of Key Trends: Industrials
  • Industry Impacts of Key Trends: Technology
Long-Term Outlook
  • Structural Hurdles Will Dictate Growth
  • Colombia Presents Long-Term Opportunities
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