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Chile Market Spotlight

  • ID: 4846291
  • Country Profile
  • Region: Chile
  • 23 pages
  • DuckerFrontier
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Economic sentiment in Chile has begun to sink. The domestic explanation for this is clear: President Sebastián Piñera promised a comprehensive reform agenda during the presidential campaign in 2017 and has not managed to sign any of the promised changes. Crucial reforms in the country's tax and pension system have stalled in Congress for the last 11 months. However, we believe that the administration will sign these reforms by the end of 2019. This will result in a confidence rebound and boost consumer spending and investment. This will be important given the external backdrop: the economies of Chile's most important trading partners will likely decelerate through 2020. As such, MNCs should expect a new normal of relatively low copper prices, making it critical to diversify outside of activities involved with the copper mining industry.
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Executive Summary
  • Our View on Chile
  • Chile's Growth Momentum vis-à-vis LATAM Is Fading
  • Chileans Appear to be More Pessimistic Than MNCs
  • Delivering on Reforms Will Reverse Low Confidence
  • Reform #1: Pension Reform
  • Reform #2: Tax Reform
  • Reform #3: Labor Reform
  • Other Reforms: ISAPRES, Education, Legislative
Short- to Medium-Term Scenarios
  • Chile Scenarios for 2019 and 2020
  • Chile's Growth Will Likely Decelerate
Key Trends in 2019
  • Trend #1
  • Trend #2
  • Trend #3
  • Industry Impacts of Key Trends: Consumer
  • Industry Impacts of Key Trends: Healthcare
  • Industry Impacts of Key Trends: Industrials
  • Industry Impacts of Key Trends: Technology
About the Author
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