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South Africa 2024: Outlook and Scenarios

  • ID: 4846307
  • Country Profile
  • Region: Africa, South Africa
  • 56 pages
  • DuckerFrontier
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The next five years - which coincide with the governing African National Congress party's next political term in office - will see South Africa gradually emerge from a decade of economic stagnation and institutional decline- MNCs can expect some improvements in customer demand and the operating environment as a result of the interplay between three main factors: ongoing structural challenges, the global economic context, and incremental economic reforms- Improvements in economic conditions will be gradual and uneven, however, resulting in diverging performance across industries and customer segments- In some cases this will create new opportunities, but in others it will heighten risks and costs- To win, multinationals need to plan effectively by basing their strategies on realistic assumptions, tracking the macroeconomic leading indicators impacting their industry and customers, and using scenarios to mitigate downside risks.

What you will learn
  • Specific drivers of South Africa's five-year outlook
  • Industry-specific outlooks for the South African market
  • Actions for multinationals to take to win in the region
What you will receive
  • Immediate access to the 56-page PDF report
  • Exclusive email updates covering emerging markets business topics
  • Special discounts on future report purchases
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Executive Summary
  • A Core Market in Emerging EMEA...
  • ...That Offers Opportunities Across Industries
  • The Next Five-Year Political Term Offers a 'New Era'
  • But Winning Will Not Be Easy
Drivers of South Africa's Five-Year Outlook
  • Drivers of South Africa's Five-Year Outlook
  • Structural Challenges: High Unemployment
  • Structural Challenges: Limited Skills Base
  • Structural Challenges: Natural Resource Pressures
  • Structural Challenges: Inadequate Infrastructure
  • Structural Challenges: Statist Economic Model
  • Structural Challenges: Racial Inequality
  • Structural Challenges: Uneven Development
  • Global Economy: Growth and Export Demand
  • Global Economy: FX Pressures and Capital Flows
  • Global Economy: Commodity Prices
  • Global Economy: Trade Policy
  • Global Economy: Foreign Direct Investment
  • Government Reform: Private Sector Development
  • Government Reform: Fiscal Policy
  • Government Policy: Wealth Redistribution
  • Government Policy: Anti-Corruption Drive
  • Government Policy: Health Policy
Five-Year Outlook
  • Slow Growth Will Likely Persist
  • 2019 Election Sets the Political Scene
  • Consumer Demand Will Expand Slowly and Unevenly
  • B2B Demand Will See Fractional Improvements
  • Public Sector Demand Will Take Time to Recover
  • FX Volatility and Price Pressures Will Persist
Industry Outlooks
  • Industry Outlook: Automotive
  • Industry Outlook: Non-Automotive Manufacturing
  • Industry Outlook: Mining
  • Industry Outlook: Construction
  • Industry Outlook: Technology
  • Industry Outlook: Agriculture
  • Industry Outlook: Consumer Retail
  • Industry Outlook: Healthcare
Scenarios and Disruptors
  • South Africa 2019-2024: Scenarios Overview
  • Base Case: Growth Slowly Improves
  • Downside: Growth Slows Further
  • Upside: Economy Accelerates
  • Disruptors Summary
  • Disruptor 1: US-China Economic Cold War
  • Disruptor 2: Global Liquidity Crisis
  • Disruptor 3: Middle East Oil Supply Outages
  • Disruptor 4: Rapid African Trade Integration
  • Disruptor 5: Ramaphosa is Removed
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