A Relatively Stable Market that has the Potential to be Heavily Disrupted with the Emergence of New Rifle Calibres and the Growing Digitalisation of the Battlespace
There are several global trends that will drive and constrain the military rifle market. These include increased modularity, digitalisation, growing presence of commercial off-the-shelf (COTS) technologies, weight reduction and lethality. With the growing ability and availability of attachments, rifles are becoming increasingly modular, allowing soldiers to adopt a “plug-n-play” model with weapons. A variety of attachments can be added to weapon platforms to meet the mission and environmental requirements. Modularity is being achieved through the addition of picatinny rails to the body of a weapon. It has become standard for rifles to be sold alongside a variety of attachments such as suppressors to reduce a rifle’s signature when firing. Rifle platforms of the future will also increasingly become modular in regards to calibre types. The ability to quickly swap a weapons barrel will grow in popularity amongst armed forces. This allows the role of a weapon to be changed to suit engagement requirements.
As the battlefield becomes increasingly digitalised within a “battlefield of things” where systems talk to one another, there will be a growing need for weapons to follow suit. There are already requirements for weapons to have fire control computers integrated within the weapon system; a case in point is the US Army’s Next Generation Squad Weapon (NGSW) programme. It is likely that this will heavily impact the sniper rifle market, allowing any soldier to become a marksman with aim assistance technologies. Furthermore, weapon systems will be required to link up and talk with other worn soldier systems as digitalisation grows. As COTS technologies from the commercial rifle market increasingly enter the defence industry and the size, weight and power (SWaP) properties of systems decrease, digital technologies will increasingly enter the market. Technological developments, especially within the areas of metamaterials, digitalisation, optics and directed energy, will become increasingly disruptive as well.
Weight reduction is still the primary issue faced by many rifles due to the growing number of equipment that soldiers are expected to carry. With lessons learned from Afghanistan and Iraq, questions over the effectiveness and lethality of the 5.56mm North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO) round at range are beginning to emerge. It is likely that the United States will adopt a 6mm intermediate round. Forces that use the 5.56mm NATO round will most likely follow suit, triggering a large number of rifle modernisation programmes and increased competition. Current market players will have to adapt in order to cater to the change in calibre. There will most likely be a growing requirement for 7.62mm calibre weapons to meet engagement requirements in the short term. Metamaterial sciences and new projectile forms will heavily affect the market, with innovation coming from commercial and non-traditional players.
This report will delve into the key issues and findings of the market identifying the current drivers and constraints on the marketplace, the competitive landscape and evolving market share in greater detail. It will also explore these issues to generate a forecast for the global market, identifying future opportunities across the assault rifle, light machine gun, general purpose machine gun, designated marksman rifle and sniper rifle markets.
Table of Contents
1. Executive Summary
- Key Findings
- Market Engineering Measurements
- CEO’s Perspective
2. Research Scope, Objectives, Methodology and Background
- Research Scope
- Key Questions this Study will Answer
- Scope and Definitions
- Rifle Types and Definitions
- Evolution of Weapon Platforms
- How Combat Units Function - The Western Model
- Percentage Revenue by Market Segment
3. General Trends
4. Market Drivers and Restraints
- Technology Impact
- Military Rifle Market - Drivers and Restraints Impact Summary
- Market Drivers Summary
- Drivers Explained
- Market Restraints Summary
- Restraints Explained
5. Market Forecast Analysis
- Market Engineering Measurements
- Forecast Assumptions
- Revenue Forecast by Programmes
- Percent Revenue Forecast by Region
- Revenue Forecast by Region
- Revenue Forecast - Key Messages
- Country Hotspots
6.Competitor Analysis
- Military Rifle Market - Competitive Environment
- Competitive Landscape Overview - Leading Players
- Assault Rifle Segment - Competitive Overview
- LMG Segment - Competitive Overview
- GPMG Segment - Competitive Overview
- DMR Segment - Competitive Overview
- Sniper Rifle Segment - Competitive Overview
- Base Year Market Share
- Existing Market Share
- Market Share Forecast Evolution
- Competitive Environment
7. Growth Opportunities
- Growth Opportunity 1 - Increased Modularity
- Growth Opportunity 2 - Digitalisation of Weapons
- Growth Opportunity 3 - License Production
- Strategic Imperatives for Growth in the Rifle Ecosystem
8. Segment Analysis - Assault Rifle
- Segment Key Findings
- Market Engineering Measurements
- Assault Rifle - Conceptual Trends
- Assault Rifle - Case Studies
- Assault Rifle - Revenue Forecast by Region
- Revenue Forecast by Region
- Assault Rifle - Opportunities and Drivers
- Assault Rifle - Challenges
9. Segment Analysis - Light Machine Gun
- Segment Key Findings
- Market Engineering Measurements
- Light Machine Gun - Conceptual Trends
- Light Machine Gun - Case Studies
- Light Machine Gun - Revenue Forecast by Region
- Revenue Forecast by Region
- Light Machine Gun - Opportunities and Drivers
- Light Machine Gun - Challenges
10. Segment Analysis - General Purpose Machine Gun
- Segment Key Findings
- Market Engineering Measurements
- General Purpose Machine Gun - Conceptual Trends
- General Purpose Machine Gun - Case Studies
- General Purpose Machine Gun - Revenue Forecast by Region
- Revenue Forecast by Region
- General Purpose Machine Gun - Opportunities and Drivers
- General Purpose Machine Gun - Challenges
11. Segment Analysis - Designated Marksman Rifle
- Segment Key Findings
- Market Engineering Measurements
- Designated Marksman Rifle - Conceptual Trends
- Designated Marksman Rifle - Case Studies
- Designated Marksman Rifle - Revenue Forecast by Region
- Revenue Forecast by Region
- Designated Marksman Rifle - Opportunities and Drivers
- Sniper Rifle Challenges
12. Segment Analysis - Sniper Rifle
- Segment Key Findings
- Market Engineering Measurements
- Sniper Rifle - Conceptual Trends
- Sniper Rifle Segment - Revenue Forecast by Region
- Revenue Forecast by Region
- Sniper Rifle - Opportunities and Drivers
- Sniper Rifle - Challenges
13. Regional Analysis - Africa
- Regional Influences
- Regional Tensions
- Trends, Growth and Challenges
- Country Hotspots
- Revenue Forecast by Segment
- Market Share
- Market Share Highlights
- Competitive Environment
14. Regional Analysis - Asia-Pacific
- Regional Influences
- Regional Tensions
- Trends, Growth and Challenges
- Country Hotspots
- Revenue Forecast by Segment
- Market Share
- Market Share Highlights
- Competitive Environment
15. Regional Analysis - Central & South Asia
- Regional Influences
- Regional Tensions
- Trends, Growth and Challenges
- Country Hotspots
- Revenue Forecast by Segment
- Market Share
- Market Share Highlights
- Competitive Environment
16. Regional Analysis - Europe
- Regional Influences
- Regional Tensions
- Trends, Growth and Challenges
- Country Hotspots
- Revenue Forecast by Segment
- Market Share
- Market Share Highlights
- Competitive Environment
17. Regional Analysis - Middle East
- Regional Influences
- Regional Tensions
- Trends, Growth and Challenges
- Country Hotspots
- Revenue Forecast by Segment
- Market Share
- Market Share Highlights
- Competitive Environment
18. Regional Analysis - North America
- Regional Influences
- Trends, Growth and Challenges
- Country Hotspots
- Revenue Forecast by Segment
- Market Share
- Market Share Highlights
- Competitive Environment
19. Regional Analysis - South America
- Regional Influences
- Regional Tensions
- Trends, Growth and Challenges
- Country Hotspots
- Revenue Forecast by Segment
- Market Share
- Market Share Highlights
- Competitive Environment
20. The Last Word
- The Last Word - 3 Big Predictions
- Legal Disclaimer
21. Appendix
- Market Engineering Methodology
- Additional Sources of Information on Study Topic
- List of Companies in “Others”
- Annex A - Acronyms
- Image Sources
- List of Exhibits
Companies Mentioned (Partial List)
A selection of companies mentioned in this report includes, but is not limited to:
- North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO)
