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2020 Latin America Outlook

  • ID: 4850791
  • Country Profile
  • Region: Latin America
  • 52 pages
  • DuckerFrontier
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Latin America will grow at a slightly higher pace in 2020, buoyed by Brazil's faster recovery, but most other countries will perform at 2019 levels. Weak growth in the region follows a global trend of weaker trade dynamism, flat commodity prices, and higher exposure to trade and policy disruptions. Relative to past years, central banks in Latin America are better equipped to encourage consumption and investment through lax monetary policy, but governments will remain fiscally constrained. As regional executives plan for 2020 they should consider prioritizing resilient markets, relying on new digital tools to create and capture customer value, and making sure that their organizational footprints and channels are responsive enough to unexpected market changes.
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Executive Summary

Looking Back at 2019
  • LATAM's New Normal Has Been Extremely Weak
  • 2019 Will Not Be the Year of Strong Recovery After All
  • Companies Have Outperformed 2018 But Missed Targets
  • Other Emerging-Market Regions Have Suffered As Well
  • Year-End Growth Numbers Will Pale Against 2018
2020 Outlook & Scenarios
  • 2020 Does Not Look Much Different Than 2019
  • Factor 1: Political Uncertainty Will Linger Into 2020
  • Investors Will Turn More Bullish on Brazil
  • Companies SHould Expect Political Continuity in the US
  • Factor 2: Global Growth Will Continue to Decelerate
  • Trade Growth Will Remain Weak Until Inventories Clear
  • Commodity Prices Will Remain Flat Year on Year
  • Flat Commodity Prices Bode Well For Investment
  • A US Recession Is Not Expected in the Short Term
  • Tourism and Remittances Will Stay Reislient
  • A US-China Trade War Truce Is Likely in 2020
  • US-China Trade Tensions Create Risks and Opportunities for LATAM
  • Factor 3: Global Financial Conditions
  • Low Interest Rates Will Support Credit Expansion
  • All in All, Growth Will Stay at 2019 Levels
  • Scenario Planning Will Remain Key
  • Currencies Will Remain Weak Against the US Dollar
Country Outlooks
  • Brazil Outlook
  • Mexico Outlook
  • Argentina Outlook
  • Colombia Outlook
  • Chile Outlook
  • Peru Outlook
  • Venezuela Outlook
  • Ecuador Outlook
  • Central America Outlook
  • Caribbean Outlook
Strategic Priorities for 2020
  • Strategic Priorities for 2020
  • Consider Resilience in Market Prioritization
  • Increase Responsiveness of Org. Footprint
  • Strengthen Government Engagement
  • Capture Opportunities Created By Digitalization
  • Encourage Customer Centricity
  • Plan for Market Disruption
  • Enhance Market-Monitoring Capabilities
  • Be Strategic About Course Correction
  • Improve Alignment and Resilience
About the Author
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