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Food Retail and Consumer Market of Russia Review: Results for 2018, Trends for 2019, and Development Prospects until 2021

  • ID: 4850795
  • Report
  • Region: Russia
  • 120 Pages
  • INFOLine Analitika
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Relevance of the Study

The retail market mainly depends on the purchasing power of the population. The industry situation worsened significantly after the macroeconomic events of 2014, sharp ruble weakening and food embargo introduction. In 2018, real cash incomes of the population again showed a reduction, and the model of consumer behavior changed from saving to lean consumption. In addition, convenience and time saving have become one of the consumers' priorities, which stimulates the development of e-Commerce (delivery services) and negatively affects traffic and sales in hypermarkets. On the Food Retail market, the largest development is gained by retail chains selling goods at a price close to the wholesale, namely, discounters, with federal chains having the highest rates. Thus, discounters are the most dynamically growing format. The ongoing reconstruction programs can improve the perceived quality of the service provided. Moreover, the market has a high level of retail chain consolidation. It significantly increases the threshold for entering the industry, leads to large-scale promotional activities, and, as a result, negatively affects the profitability of retailers and suppliers. In order to understand what the pace of retail market recovery is and what to expect in the future, we conducted a comprehensive study of the industry, covering all its segments. The proposed product can help you determine the position of your own company regarding the industry dynamics and outline possible ways of business development.

Purpose of the Study

  • FMCG Retail Industry Overview
  • FMCG retailer rating by revenue, number of retail properties, volume of selling space and formats
  • Overview of the industry development vector by describing its milestones
  • Industry development forecast
  • Scenario forecast for the Food retail market development
  • Analysis of the activities of the industry leaders
  • Analysis of consumer behavior
  • Review and analysis of state regulation.

Objectives of the Study

  • Part I. Retail performance indicators. Macroeconomic retail indicators: GDP dynamics and breakdown, dynamics and structure of retail turnover by segments and types of goods. Dynamics of incomes and expenses of the population. Consumer lending and deposits. Structure of cash income and expenses of the population. Consumer behavior.
  • Part II. Retail milestones. Retail state regulation. Events and activities of international companies on the country's market. Quality control of consumer goods.
  • Part III. FMCG retail performance indicators. The dynamics and structure of the market, shares of key players, the number of facilities and selling space of retailers (based on a sample of TOP-200 Russian FMCG retailers), the dynamics and forecast of investment activity, development trends and prospects. Chain ratings by revenue, selling space, trade formats and development prospects of leading retailers. Development of online trade by FMCG chains, wholesale, delivery services. Opening of distribution centers, M&A deals.
  • Part IV. Market survey of leading FMCG suppliers. Sales dynamics of leading FMCG suppliers, share of sales of leading suppliers through the FMCG chains. Company development and government regulation. Interaction of leading suppliers with FMCG chains.
  • Part V. Food retail development forecast. Scenario conditions and indicators of Russian economic development in 2019-2021, Food retail development scenarios, dynamics forecast of population incomes and expenditures, forecast of retail turnover, forecast of food retail turnover by sales channels, forecast of the number and area of FMCG facilities by sales channels.
Note: Product cover images may vary from those shown
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PART I. Retail and Consumer Market Indicators
1.1. GDP Dynamics and Breakdown
1.2. Retail Turnover
1.3. Retail Turnover by Type of Goods
1.4. Retail Turnover Structure by Segments
1.5. Dynamics of Incomes and Expenditure of the Population
1.6. Consumer Lending Status and Deposits
1.7. Structure of Household Cash Income and Expenditure
1.8. Consumer Behavior

PART II. Retail milestones
2.1. Government regulation: key innovations of 2018 and changes in excise duties
2.2. Government regulation of retail. Return prohibition law
2.3. State regulation of trade
2.4. Government regulation: cash register equipment
2.5. Government regulation: Tax Free
2.6. Government regulation: online and cross-border trade
2.7. Government regulation in Non-food retail
2.8. Consumer product quality control
2.9. Government regulation: other news
2.10. Relationship with EU, USA and Turkey: regulation of sanctional products

PART III. FMCG RETAIL PERFORMANCE
3.1. Food retail structure
3.2. Number and area of top-200 FMCG chains
3.3. Structure and growth in area of top-200 FMCG chains
3.4. Dynamics and investment activity forecast of top-200 FMCG chains
3.5. Selling space format structure of top-200 FMCG chains
3.6. TOP-10 FMCG retail chains by the results of 2018 and H1 2019
3.7. Rating and performance of public FMCG retail chains
3.8. Like-for-like sales of public FMCG retail chains
3.9. Financial indicators and investments of public FMCG retail chains
3.10. FMCG retail chain format rating
3.11. Rating of specialized FMCG retail chains
3.12. Online trade development by FMCG and Foodtech chains
3.13. Wholesale trade development by FMCG retail chains
3.14. Private label development by Russian FMCG retail chains
3.15. Launch of FMCG chain distribution centers
3.16. Largest M&A deals

PART IV. Market survey of leading FMCG suppliers
4.1. Sales results of leading FMCG suppliers in 2016-2018 and forecast for 2019
4.2. Factors impending suppliers development and criteria of successful retail chain operation
4.3. Government regulation
4.4. Share of leading suppliers sales through FMCG chains
4.5. Interaction of leading suppliers with FMCG chains
4.6. Promo sales and special range for FMCG chains in 2018 and forecast for 2019
4.7. Online sales of leading suppliers in 2017-2018 and forecast for 2021
4.8. Exports in sales structure in 2018 and forecast for 2019

PART V. Forecast for Food retail trade
5.1. Dynamics of Russia's macroeconomic indicators
5.2. Consensus forecast of Russia's macroeconomic indicators
5.3. Russian social and economic development scenario
5.4. Retail turnover forecast
5.5. Dynamics forecast of incomes and expenditures of population
5.6. Food retail development scenarios prepared by INFOLine
5.7. Russian food retail development forecast
5.8. Food retail turnover structure and forecast for 2021
5.9. Top-10 FMCG chain development and share and forecast for 2021
5.10. Food retail development forecast by sales channels
5.11. Facility number and area forecast by food sales channels

List of Figures

PART I. Retail and Consumer Market Indicators

  • Dynamics and Forecast of Key Economic indicators of Russia, %
  • Russian GDP Structure Broken by Branches of Economy, %
  • Dynamics of Retail Turnover, in % of the Corresponding Period of the Previous Year
  • Growth Rate of Consumer Prices (December to December of the Previous Year), %
  • Retail Turnover, % YoY
  • Dynamics of Food Retail Turnover, in % year-on-year
  • Dynamics of Non-Food Retail Turnover, in % year-on-year
  • Retail Turnover by Segments and Product Groups, RUB trln
  • Dynamics and Capacity of Retail Market Segments in 2018
  • Dynamics of Wages and Real Incomes, %
  • Household Income and Expenditure Ratio
  • Distribution of Population by Per Capita Income
  • End-of-Period Household Deposits and Loans, RUB trln
  • Loans and Changes in the Volume of Household Deposits, RUB trln
  • Structure Household Debt on Loans as of January 1, 2019,%
  • Structure of Household Cash Incomes by Sources of Income, %
  • Structure of Income Use by Areas, %
  • Consumer Confidence Index of the Russian Federation, %
  • Social and Consumer Sentiment Index

PART III. FMCG RETAIL PERFORMANCE

  • Food Retail Turnover Dynamics by Sales Channels
  • Sales Structure in FMCG Retail Chains (excluding drogerie, pharmacies and other non-food chains and facilities)
  • Structure of the Russian Food Retail Market in 2017, %
  • Structure of the Russian Food Retail Market in 2018, %
  • Number of TOP-200 Russian FMCG Chain Facilities at the End of the Period
  • Change in the number of TOP-200 Russian FMCG chain facilities
  • Increase in the Area of TOP-200 Russian FMCG Chains
  • Area Growth Structure of TOP-200 Russian FMCG Chains, %
  • Area Growth Dynamics of TOP-200 Russian FMCG Chains
  • Area Growth Dynamics Structure of TOP-200 Russian FMCG Chains
  • Selling Space Format Structure of the TOP-200 Russian FMCG Chains in 2011–2018 at the End of the Reporting Period
  • Selling Space Format Structure of the TOP-200 Russian FMCG Chains in 2011–2018 at the End of the Reporting Period
  • Revenue of TOP-10 FMCG Chains
  • Number of Facilities and Selling Space of TOP-10 FMCG Chains at the End of the Period
  • Revenue of TOP-10 FMCG Chains
  • Number of Facilities and Selling Space of TOP-10 FMCG Chains at the End of the Period
  • Revenue of Public FMCG Retail Chains
  • Like-for-Like Sales (LFL) Dynamics of Public FMCG Chains, %
  • Revenues of Public FMCG Retail Chains
  • Like-for-Like Sales (LFL) Dynamics of Public FMCG Chains, %
  • Average Receipt in LFL Stores of Public FMCG Chains, %
  • Traffic in LFL Stores of Public FMCG Chains, %
  • Public FMCG Chain Financial Performance
  • Capital Expenditures and Net Debt of Public FMCG Chains
  • Number of Facilities and Food Retail Turnover in Hypermarket Format (including non-chain)
  • Revenues of TOP-5 FMCG Chains in Hypermarket Format
  • Number of TOP-5 FMCG Chains in Hypermarket Format at the End of the Period
  • Selling Space of TOP-5 FMCG Chains in Hypermarket Format at the End of the Period
  • Revenue per Square Meter of TOP-5 FMCG Chains in Hypermarket Format
  • Average Receipt of TOP-5 FMCG Chains in Hypermarket Format
  • Number of Facilities and Food Retail Turnover in Supermarket Format (including non-chain stores)
  • Revenue of TOP-5 FMCG Chains in Supermarket Format
  • Number of Facilities of TOP-5 FMCG Chains in Supermarket Format at the End of the Period
  • Revenue per Square Meter of TOP-5 FMCG Chains in Hypermarket Format
  • Average Receipt of TOP-5 FMCG Chains in Hypermarket Format
  • Number of Facilities and Food Retail Turnover in Supermarket Format (including non-chain stores)
  • Revenue of TOP-5 FMCG Chains in Supermarket Format
  • Number of Facilities of TOP-5 FMCG Chains in Supermarket Format at the End of the Period
  • Selling Space of TOP-5 FMCG Chains in Supermarket Format at the End of the Period
  • Revenue per Square Meter of TOP-5 FMCG Chains in Supermarket Format for the Period
  • Average Receipt of TOP-5 FMCG Chains in Supermarket Format
  • Number of Facilities and Food Retail Turnover in Discounter Format
  • Revenue of TOP-5 FMCG Chains in the Discounter Format for the Period
  • Number of Facilities of TOP-5 FMCG Chains in Discounter Format at the End of the Period
  • Selling Space of TOP-5 FMCG Chains in Discounter Format at the End of the Period
  • Revenue per Square Meter of TOP-5 FMCG Chains in Discounter Format
  • Average Receipt of TOP-5 FMCG Chains in Discounter Format
  • Number of Facilities and Food Retail Turnover in Convenience Store Format (including non-chain stores)
  • Revenue of TOP-5 FMCG Chains in Convenience Store Format for the Period
  • Number of Facilities of TOP-5 FMCG Chains in Convenience Store Format at the End of the Period
  • Selling Space of TOP-5 FMCG Chains in Convenience Store Format at the End of the Period
  • Revenue per Square Meter of TOP-5 FMCG Chains in Convenience Store Format for the Period
  • Average Receipt of TOP-5 FMCG Chains in Convenience Store Format for the Period
  • Number and Selling Space of Facilities of TOP-5 Alcohol Store Chains at the End of the Period
  • Revenue of TOP-5 Alcohol Store Chains for the Period
  • Number and Selling Space of Facilities of TOP-5 Chains with Fresh Range at the End of the Period
  • Revenue of TOP-5 Chains with Fresh Range for the Period
  • Russia TOP Online Food Retail 2018 Rating
  • Average Number of Deliveries per Day in 2018
  • Average Receipt at the End of 2018, in RUB including VAT
  • Wholesale and Other Revenue of Leading Chains
  • Private Label Share in Revenue of Leading FMCG Chains in 2018, %
  • Private Label Share in the FMCG Chain Retail Market, %

PART IV. Market survey of leading FMCG suppliers

  • Sales Dynamics of Leading FMCG Suppliers in 2016-2018 and Forecast for 2019,%
  • Plans of FMCG Suppliers on Change in Sales in 2019,%
  • Factors Most Severely Impending Company Development in 2017-2018, %
  • Most Significant Criteria of Successful FMCG Suppliers and Chains Operation
  • How did amendments to the law on trade (No. 381-FZ) affect your company’s activity,%
  • How did the Platon system introduction affect the your company’s activity,%
  • How did the transition to the Mercury automated system affect your company’s activity,%
  • How did the USAIS system implementation affect your company’s activity,%
  • Share of Leading Suppliers Sales through FMCG Chains in 2016-2018 and Forecast for 2019
  • Plans to Change the Range of FMCG Chains Share in Total Sales in 2019, %
  • Retail Chains Leading Suppliers Worked with in 2017-2018, %
  • Number of Retail Chains Suppliers Work with 2019, %
  • Share of Promo Sales of Products at Discounts in 2018 and Forecast for 2019, %
  • FMCG Promo Sales Dynamics in 2018, Forecast for 2019, %
  • Special Range for FMCG Retail Chains in 2018, Forecast for 2019, %
  • Share of Largest Suppliers Online Sales in 2018, Forecast for 2021,%
  • Growth in Online Product Sales in 2018, Forecast for 2019,%
  • Plans to Change the Range of Online Sales Share in 2021,%
  • Export Share in Sales Structure in 2018, Forecast for 2019, %
  • Export Geography in 2018, %
  • Plans to change the share of exports in total sales in 2019, %

PART V. Food retail development forecast

  • Dynamics of Main Russian Macroeconomic Indicators in 2011-2018 and Forecast  for 2019-2021
  • Dynamics of CBR Foreign Exchange Rates in 2011-2018 and Forecast for 2019-2021
  • Retail Turnover Forecast
  • RTO Dynamics Baseline Forecast
  • Dynamics Forecast of Real Wages and Real Incomes of the Population
  • Dynamics Forecast of Implicit Wages and Per Capita Incomes of the Population
  • Food Retail Turnover Forecast
  • Food RTO Dynamics Baseline Forecast
  • Russian Food Retail Market Structure in 2018
  • Russian Food Retail Market Structure in 2021
  • Dynamics of TOP-10 and Modern Format Share in the Retail Market in 2014-2018 and Forecast for 2019-2021
  • TOP-10 Revenue in 2018 and Forecast for 2019-2021
  • Food RTO Baseline Forecast (including VAT) by Sales Channels
  • Russian Food Retail Market Structure in Monetary Terms
  • Forecast of the Number of Retail Facilities by Sales Channels
  • Forecast of the Facility Selling Space by Sales Channels
Note: Product cover images may vary from those shown
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