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The Central and Eastern Europe Telecoms Market: Trends and Forecasts 2019 - 2024

  • ID: 4856156
  • Report
  • November 2019
  • Region: Europe
  • Analysys Mason
The expansion of LTE and LTE-A networks and increasing mobile data usage will be key drivers of the total telecoms revenue growth.

Mobile service revenue will account for 67% of the total telecoms service revenue in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) in 2024. 5G revenue is expected to account for around 41% of the total mobile service revenue by 2024. Fixed broadband and specialist business service revenue will be crucial for revenue growth in the fixed segment. Both revenue streams will increase at a similar CAGR of 2.6% between 2018 and 2024. Fixed network operators will be looking for opportunities to reduce infrastructure costs, and fibre network roll-outs will continue across the region.

This Report and Associated Data Annex Provide:

  • a 5-year forecast of more than 330 mobile and fixed KPIs for CEE, as a whole and for 16 key countries
  • an in-depth analysis of the trends, drivers and forecast assumptions for each type of mobile and fixed service, and for the key countries
  • an overview of operator strategies and country-specific topics, in order to highlight similarities and differences by means of a cross-country comparison
  • a summary of results, key implications and recommendations for mobile and fixed operators.

Forecasts are informed by on-the-ground regional market experts from topic-led research programmes and the consulting division, as well as external interviews. In addition to the robust set of historical data, the forecasts draw on a unique and in-house modelling tool, which applies a rigorous methodology (reconciliation of different sources, standard definitions, top-down and bottom-up modelling).

Geographical coverage

Region modelled

  • Central and Eastern Europe (CEE)

Countries modelled individually

  • Bulgaria
  • Croatia
  • Czech Republic
  • Estonia
  • Hungary
  • Latvia
  • Lithuania
  • Montenegro
  • Poland
  • Romania
  • Russia
  • Serbia
  • Slovakia
  • Slovenia
  • Turkey
  • Ukraine

Key performance indicators



  • Handset, mobile broadband, IoT
  • Prepaid, contract
  • 2G, 3G, 4G, 5G
  • Smartphone,
  • non-smartphone


  • Voice, broadband, IPTV, dial-up
  • Narrowband voice, VoBB
  • DSL, FTTP/B, cable, BFWA, 5G, other

Fixed and mobile voice traffic

  • Outgoing minutes, MoU



  • Service, retail
  • Prepaid, contract
  • Handset, mobile broadband, IoT
  • Handset voice, messaging, data


  • Service, retail
  • Voice, broadband, IPTV, dial-up, business services
  • DSL, FTTP/B, cable, BFWA, other

Mobile ARPU

  • SIMs, handset
  • Prepaid, contract
  • Handset voice, data
Note: Product cover images may vary from those shown
  • Executive summary and recommendations
  • Telecoms service revenue growth will be driven by the demand for data and the monetisation of network investments
  • The rate of telecoms retail revenue growth mainly depends on LTE network expansions, NGA network investments and fixed broadband service takeup
  • Geographical coverage: the share of NGA connections will increase to 84%, and the 4G/5G share of mobile connections will exceed 85% in 2024
  • Key trends, drivers and assumptions for the mobile and fixed markets
  • Key recommendations for telecoms operators
  • Regional forecasts and cross-country comparison
  • Market context: the pace of economic growth may start to fall in CEE
  • Key mergers, acquisitions and market entries
  • Key drivers at a glance for each Central and Eastern Europe market
  • Market overview: fixed broadband and mobile handset data services will remain the largest areas for revenue growth
  • Mobile: the total number of mobile connections will decline by 2024 due to market saturation and migration from multi-SIM prepaid plans to contract services
  • Mobile: penetration in CEE will plateau, mainly due to market saturation
  • Mobile: mobile ARPU will increase in CEE, stimulated by LTE expansions and the associated increase in data usage
  • Mobile: the outlook for mobile ARPU and handset revenue is positive thanks to increasing LTE-A coverage and the growing adoption of contract subscriptions
  • Fixed: over 60% of households in CEE will have an active NGA broadband connection in 2024
  • Fixed: NGA network roll-outs and attractive bundled offers will support broadband household penetration growth across the region
  • Fixed: increasing broadband household penetration and NGA service takeup will help operators to maintain reasonably stable ASPU levels
  • Fixed: the increasing coverage of high-speed broadband networks will help operators to maintain broadband revenue growth
  • Specialist business services: operators’ business services revenue growth will slow down towards the end of the forecast
  • IoT: the largest share of IoT revenue in CEE will come from the automotive sector
  • Pay TV: traditional services will account for the majority of pay-TV revenue growth in CEE, but operator OTT revenue will grow rapidly, while that from DTH declines
  • Individual country forecasts
  • Czech Republic: the expected entry of a fourth mobile player will cause mobile revenue to decline slightly from 2022 onwards
  • Czech Republic: fixed-wireless will remain the most popular fixed broadband technology, but the number of fibre subscribers will grow rapidly
  • Czech Republic: the mobile market is relatively uncompetitive but this is likely to change following the introduction of a new mobile operator
  • Czech Republic: forecast changes
  • Poland: fixed broadband revenue will increase, but the total market revenue growth will be limited by strong competition in the mobile segment
  • Poland: operators’ investments in NGA networks will slow down towards the end of the forecast period
  • Poland: investments in infrastructure will allow operators to maintain ASPUlevels despite the high competitive pressure
  • Poland: forecast changes
  • Russia: strong revenue growth from mobile connectivity and fixed broadband will help to offset declining revenue from legacy services
  • Russia: the NGA share of all broadband connections will reach 95% by 2024
  • Russia: mobile and broadband revenue will grow modestly due to enhancements in service quality and favourable macroeconomic conditions
  • Russia: forecast changes
  • Turkey: mobile data usage will be the major driver of revenue growth, followed by broadband services
  • Turkey: the high mobile ASPU will be maintained due to growth in the take up of mobile data services
  • Turkey: increasing fibre household penetration and expanding LTE network coverage will help to maintain the high broadband and mobile ASPU
  • Turkey: forecast changes
  • Methodology
  • The forecast model is supported by sound market knowledge
  • Examples of forecast input drivers
  • Key drivers at a glance table: methodology
  • About the authors
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