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The North America Telecoms Market: Trends and Forecasts 2019-2024

  • ID: 4858357
  • Report
  • November 2019
  • Region: North America
  • Analysys Mason Group
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The Total Telecoms Revenue in North America to Grow by 4.7% Between 2019 and 2024

The total telecoms revenue growth in North America will mainly be driven by revenue growth from both mobile services and fixed broadband services. In this report, the analyst analyses how various operator strategies will affect different areas of the telecoms market in North America.

This report and associated data annex provide:

  • a 5-year forecast of more than 180 mobile and fixed KPIs for North America and for the two countries in the region
  • an in-depth analysis of the trends, drivers and forecast assumptions for each type of mobile and fixed service, and for the two countries
  • an overview of operator strategies and country-specific topics, which highlights similarities and differences between the two countries
  • a summary of results, key implications, and recommendations for mobile and fixed operators.

Key performance indicators

Connections

Mobile

  • Handset, mobile broadband, IoT
  • Prepaid, contract
  • 2G, 3G, 4G, 5G
  • Smartphone,
  • non-smartphone

Fixed

  • Voice, broadband, IPTV, dial-up
  • Narrowband voice, VoBB
  • DSL, FTTP/B, cable, BFWA, 5G, other

Fixed and mobile voice traffic

  • Outgoing minutes, MoU

Revenue

Mobile

  • Service, retail
  • Prepaid, contract
  • Handset, mobile broadband, IoT
  • Handset voice, messaging, data

Fixed

  • Service, retail
  • Voice, broadband, IPTV, dial-up, business services
  • DSL, FTTP/B, cable, BFWA, other

ARPU

Mobile

  • SIMs, handset
  • Prepaid, contract
  • Handset voice, data
Note: Product cover images may vary from those shown
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Chapter Nos.

7. Executive summary and recommendations
8. Fixed broadband revenue will be the main contributor to telecoms revenue growth in North America between 2018 and 2024
9. The telecoms market in North America is reasonably mature and will grow  more slowly than the rest of the economy in the region between 2018 and 2024
10. Geographical coverage: 4G and 5G will be the only mobile technologies used in the region by 2023; 2G and 3G will shut down, allowing spectrum to be refarmed
11. Key trends, drivers and assumptions for the mobile and fixed markets
12. Key recommendations for telecoms operators
13. Regional forecasts and cross-country comparison
14. Market context: the economies in Canada and the USA have been growing at a slow pace, and may fall into recession in the coming years
15. Key mergers, acquisitions, and market entries
16. Key drivers at a glance for each North America market
17. Market overview: revenue growth in the telecoms market will be limited due to declines in wholesale and fixed voice revenue
18. Mobile: the number of 5G connections will grow rapidly once 5G handsets become more widely available and 5G network coverage grows
19. Mobile: growth in the number of connections will be the main driver of revenue growth because mobile ARPU will remain largely constant
20. Mobile: low levels of competition in the mobile segment will lead to slow but stable growth in mobile revenue during the forecast period
21. Fixed: fixed revenue will grow during the forecast period despite a large decline in voice revenue, mainly due to growth in the number of NGA connections
22. Fixed: fixed broadband ASPU will increase between 2018 and 2024 due to a lack of competition and because consumers are willing to pay more for faster services
23. Fixed: fixed broadband will be the main driver of revenue growth in the fixed segment thanks to growth in both ARPU and household penetration
24. Specialist business services: enterprise business revenue growth will be driven by revenue from non-operators that provide other business services
25. IoT: the total IoT value chain revenue will grow considerably over the forecast period, but connectivity revenue will only account for a small proportion
26. Pay TV: cord-cutting will continue in North America, and traditional pay-TV service revenue will decline
27. Individual country forecasts
28. Canada: the total service revenue will continue to grow, driven by a lack of competition in the fixed broadband market
29. Canada: the number of fixed broadband connections will continue to increase as operators expand their networks to underserved areas
30. Canada: the lack of challengers to the established operators will keep fixed broadband ASPU at a high level, but mobile ARPU growth will be limited
31. Canada: forecast changes
32. USA: the mobile sector will be the main driver of telecoms revenue growth thanks to an increase in mobile penetration during the forecast period
33. USA: fixed broadband ASPU is forecast to grow between 2018 and 2024, mostly because of the low level of competition in the market
34. USA: the potential merger between T-Mobile and Sprint is creating a lot of uncertainty in the market and may lead to a decline in competition
35. USA: forecast changes
36. Methodology
37. Forecast model is supported by sound market knowledge
38. Examples of forecast input drivers
39. Key drivers at a glance table: methodology [1]
40. Key drivers at a glance table: methodology [2]
41. About the authors

List of Figures
Figure 1: Telecoms and pay-TV retail revenue by type and total service revenue,North America, 2014–2024
Figure 2: Growth in telecoms retail revenue and nominal GDP by country, NorthAmerica, 2018–2024
Figure 3: 4G/5G share of mobile connections and NGA share of fixedbroadband connections by country, North America, 2018 and 2024
Figure 4: Summary of key trends, drivers and assumptions for North America
Figure 5: Metrics for the two countries modelled individually in North America, 2018
Figure 6: Recent and upcoming market structure changes in North America
Figure 7: Major forecast drivers: current situation (2018) and future trajectory (2019–2024), by country, North America
Figure 8: Total fixed and mobile telecoms service revenue, North America (USD billion), 2014–2024
Figure 9: Mobile connections by type, North America (million), 2014–2024
Figure 10: Telecoms retail revenue and growth rate by service type, North America, 2014–2024
Figure 11: Fixed connections by type, North America (million), 2014–2024
Figure 12: Mobile connections by generation, North America (million), 2014–2024
Figure 13: Mobile ARPU by type, North America (USD per month), 2014–2024
Figure 14: Contract share of mobile connections (excluding IoT), North America, 2014–2024
Figure 15: Mobile data traffic per connection, North America (GB per month),2014–2024
Figure 16: Mobile penetration by country, North America, 2014–2024
Figure 17: Mobile ARPU by country, North America, 2014–2024
Figure 18: Broadband connections by technology, North America (million), 2014–2024
Figure 19: Fixed retail revenue by service, North America (USD billion), 2014–2024
Figure 20: NGA broadband household penetration and NGA share of broadband connections, North America, 2014–2024
Figure 21: Fixed Internet traffic per broadband connection, North America (GB per month), 2014–2024
Figure 22: Fixed broadband household penetration by country, North America, 2014–2024
Figure 23: Fixed broadband access ASPU by country, North America, 2014–2024
Figure 24: Total market revenue from specialist business services, North America, 2014–2024
Figure 25: Total IoT value chain revenue by sector, North America, 2014–2024
Figure 26: Retail revenue from pay-TV, North America, 2014–2024
Figure 27: Total fixed and mobile telecoms service revenue, Canada (CAD billion), 2014–2024
Figure 28: Mobile connections by type, Canada (million), 2014–2024
Figure 29: Telecoms retail revenue and growth rate by service type, Canada, 2014–2024
Figure 30: Fixed connections by type, Canada (million), 2014–2024
Figure 31: 4G, 5G and contract share of mobile connections, Canada, 2014–2024
Figure 32: Mobile ARPU; fixed voice, broadband, and pay-TV ASPU, Canada (CADper month), 2014–2024
Figure 33: Mobile data traffic per connection, Canada (GB per month), 2014–2024
Figure 34: Broadband connections by technology, Canada (million), 2014–2024
Figure 35: Total telecoms service revenue – current and previous forecasts, Canada, 2014–2024
Figure 36: Total fixed and mobile telecoms service revenue, USA (USD billion),2014–2024
Figure 37: Mobile connections by type, USA (million), 2014–2024
Figure 38: Telecoms retail revenue and growth rate by service type, USA, 2014–2024
Figure 39: Fixed connections by type, USA (million), 2014–2024
Figure 40: 4G, 5G and contract share of mobile connections, USA, 2014–2024
Figure 41: Mobile ARPU; fixed voice, broadband, and pay-TV ASPU, USA (USD per month), 2014–2024
Figure 42: Mobile data traffic per connection, USA (GB per month), 2014–2024
Figure 43: Broadband connections by technology, USA (million), 2014–2024
Figure 44: Total telecoms service revenue – current and previous forecasts, USA, 2014–2024
Figure 45a: Methodology for attributing scores to each element in the key driver's table (current and future) and the impact of high scores
Figure 45b: Methodology for attributing scores to each element in the key driver's table (current and future) and impact of high scores

Note: Product cover images may vary from those shown
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Key performance indicators

  • Region modelled
  • North America (NA)

Countries modelled individually

  • Canada
  • USA
Note: Product cover images may vary from those shown
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