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The Fixed Services in Western Europe: Trends and Forecasts 2019–2024

  • ID: 4871834
  • Report
  • December 2019
  • Region: Europe
  • 28 Pages
  • Analysys Mason

Government investments will help to increase the availability of high-speed fixed broadband connections in Western Europe, but fixed service revenue growth will be limited.

This report examines key trends and drivers, and provides a comprehensive fixed telecoms market forecast for Western Europe and for 16 individually modelled countries including country views for France, Germany, Italy, Spain and the UK.

This report provides:

  • a 5-year forecast of 110 fixed KPIs for the Western European region and for 16 key countries
  • an in-depth analysis of the trends, drivers and forecast assumptions for each type of fixed service, and for key countries
  • an overview of operator strategies and country-specific topics, which highlights similarities and differences between countries
  • a summary of results, key implications and recommendations for fixed operators.

Geographical coverage

Countries modelled individually    

  • Austria
  • Belgium
  • Denmark
  • Finland
  • France
  • Germany
  • Greece
  • Ireland
  • Italy
  • Netherlands
  • Norway
  • Portugal
  • Spain
  • Sweden
  • Switzerland
  • UK

Detailed country commentary

  • France
  • Germany
  • Italy
  • Spain
  • UK

Data Coverage:

Fixed connections

  • Voice, broadband, IPTV, dial-up
  • Narrowband voice, VoBB
  • DSL, FTTP/B, cable, BFWA, other

Fixed revenue

  • Service, retail
  • Voice, broadband, IPTV, dial-up, BNS
  • DSL, FTTP/B, cable, BFWA, other

Fixed voice traffic

  • Outgoing minutes, MoU
Note: Product cover images may vary from those shown

Executive summary

Worldwide trends

  • Worldwide: the increase in fixed broadband revenue will be driven by increasing next-generation access (NGA) take-up

Regional trends

  • The total fixed retail revenue will remain flat due to declining revenue from legacy services
  • The share of FTTP/B connections will increase significantly in WE, sustained by operators’ aggressive roll-out targets in several countries
  • Fixed broadband household penetration will continue to grow in all countries
  • Consumer demand for high-speed broadband will drive ASPU growth in a few countries, but the ASPU trend for the region as a whole will remain flat
  • The total fixed broadband revenue in WE will continue to increase, sustained by a stable ASPU and a growing number of FBB connections

Country-level trends

  • France: aggressive price competition will lead to a decline in the total fixed service revenue during the forecast period
  • Germany: FTTC-based VDSL will be the most-widespread technology in the fixed broadband market by 2024
  • Italy: a growing take-up of fibre-based network services will boost FBB penetration
  • Spain: saturation among middle-income and premium customers will continue to drive a shift in strategy among operators
  • UK: FTTP roll-outs will be one of a limited number of opportunities for revenue growth in the fixed market

Forecast methodology and assumptions

  • Our forecast model is supported by sound market knowledge
  • Examples of forecast input drivers

List of figures:

  • Figure 1: Telecoms and pay-TV retail revenue by type and total service revenue, Western Europe, 2014–2024
  • Figure 2: Fixed service revenue in WE and the rest of the world, 2014–2024
  • Figure 3: Telecoms retail revenue by fixed service type, and fixed ARPU, Western Europe, 2014–2024
  • Figure 4: Telecoms retail revenue and growth rate by service type, Western Europe, 2014–2024
  • Figure 5: Fixed connections by type, Western Europe (million), 2014–2024
  • Figure 6: Broadband connections by technology, Western Europe (million), 2014–2024
  • Figure 7: Fixed retail revenue by service, Western Europe (EUR billion), 2014–2024
  • Figure 8: NGA broadband household penetration and NGA share of broadband connections, Western Europe, 2014–2024
  • Figure 9: Fixed internet traffic per broadband connection, Western Europe (GB per month), 2014–2024
  • Figure 10a: Fixed broadband household penetration by country, Western Europe, 2014–2024
  • Figure 10b: Fixed broadband household penetration by country, Western Europe, 2014–2024
  • Figure 11a: Fixed broadband access ASPU by country, Western Europe, 2014–2024
  • Figure 11b: Fixed broadband access ASPU by country, Western Europe, 2014–2024
  • Figure 12: Fixed voice, broadband and pay-TV ASPU, France (EUR per month), 2014–2024
  • Figure 13: Broadband connections by type, France (million), 2014–2024
  • Figure 14: Fixed voice, broadband and pay-TV ASPU, Germany (EUR per month), 2014–2024
  • Figure 15: Broadband connections by type, Germany (million), 2014–2024
  • Figure 16: Fixed voice, broadband and pay-TV ASPU, Italy (EUR per month), 2014–2024
  • Figure 17: Broadband connections by type, Italy (million), 2014–2024
  • Figure 18: Fixed voice, broadband and pay-TV ASPU, Spain (EUR per month), 2014–2024
  • Figure 19: Broadband connections by type, Spain (million), 2014–2024
  • Figure 20: Fixed voice, broadband and pay-TV ASPU, UK (GBP per month), 2014–2024
  • Figure 21: Broadband connections by type, UK (million), 2014–2024
Note: Product cover images may vary from those shown