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Kenya 2024: Outlook and Scenarios

  • ID: 4895974
  • Country Profile
  • November 2019
  • Region: Kenya
  • 42 pages
  • DuckerFrontier
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Kenya’s significance for the Middle East and Africa portfolio will rise in the next five years as sustained growth and an increasingly diverse and sophisticated customer base offer MNCs opportunities to offset stagnating sales in core markets.

To capitalize on this growth, regional executives will need to be proactive in how they manage their Kenyan operations by anticipating changing demand profiles and incentivizing their local teams and partners to target and win new business - whether by selling to emerging segments and verticals or expanding their market reach to new geographies.

While the impact of global downside developments on the market is likely to be moderate, MNCs should nonetheless prepare for some short-term volatility, particularly around the 2022 election.
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1. Executive Summary
  • Kenya in the Middle East and Africa Portfolio
  • The Natural Hub for Building Scale in East Africa
  • MNCs Will Experience Fresh Challenges
2. Drivers of Kenya’s Five-Year Outlook
  • Global and Local Factors Will Shape the Outlook
  • Export Demand Will be Positive But Moderate
  • Low Oil Prices Will be a Net Positive
  • Global Monetary Policy Impact Will Be Benign
  • Climate Change Will Create Volatility
  • Investment Growth Will Persist, Though Unevenly
  • Politics Will Enter a Crucial Period
  • Reform Will Proceed, But With Some Delays
3. Five-Year Outlook: Macroeconomic and Industry Segments
  • Positive Fundamentals Will Buoy Growth
  • Costs Will Pressure Local Customers and Partners
  • Sector Outlooks
  • Healthy Consumer Spending is Likely to Persist
  • B2C Opportunity: “Middle-Class” Spending
  • B2C Opportunity: e-Commerce
  • “Big Four” Agenda Will Shape Public Sector Demand
  • B2G Opportunity: Procurement Spending
  • The Health Sector is Poised for Growth
  • Healthcare Opportunity: Private Sector
  • Healthcare Opportunity: Public Sector
  • B2B Demand Will See Robust Growth
  • B2B Opportunity: Agriculture
  • B2B Opportunity: Manufacturing
  • B2B Opportunity: Construction
  • Kenya’s Role as SSA’s Tech Leader Will Persist
  • Tech Opportunity: Demand for Solutions Will Rise
  • Issue in Focus: Subnational Development
4. Scenarios
  • Kenya 2019-2024: Scenarios Overview
  • Scenario Details
5. Next Steps for MNCs
  • Finetuning Planning to Capitalize on Kenya’s Growth
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