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Ukrainian Gas Hub: Climax at Hand

  • ID: 4900656
  • Report
  • December 2019
  • Region: Ukraine
  • 60 Pages
  • National Energy Security Fund
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The Entire European Gas Business is Watching Intently the Negotiations Between Russia and Ukraine


The “zero hour” comes in less than a month: the contracts for gas transit through Ukraine and for supplying Russian gas to the country terminate at 10 am on 1 January. Meanwhile, Gazprom and Naftogaz are very far from looking for a mutually acceptable solution.

The entire European gas business is watching intently the negotiations between Russia and Ukraine. Everyone is waiting for a new “gas war”: the January 2019 events proved to be a serious test both to European consumers and to Gazprom as a supplier.

Is there still a chance of agreement? If there is not, will Gazprom cope with its obligations to deliver gas to Europe? Is Russia bluffing as it assures that the new infrastructure and gas in underground storage facilities will enable it to get by without Ukrainian transit even as soon as this winter? What will happen to Ukraine itself at the beginning of 2020?

All these questions we will try to answer in our new report.

You will learn about the following subjects:

  • Last chance of compromise
    • Can a new gas agreement be concluded with Ukraine yet?
    • What options there are to discuss.
    • A new long-term contract or living by European rules?
  • Life without Ukraine: Russia’s actual transit potential
    • Creating an alternative system for gas delivery to Europe across two seas.
    • The strengths and the weaknesses of the new transport system.
    • When will the Baltic and Black Sea transit capacity with the onshore infrastructure really start operating?
  • “Gas war” scenario
    • How does Gazprom intend to transport gas to Europe in winter 2020?
    • The main risks of the coming winter if the Ukrainian route is blocked.
    • The most vulnerable user countries.
    • The significance of underground storage and LNG.
  • Role of Ukraine in Russian gas transit
    • Fluctuations of transport volumes and transit geography.
    • The situation with the prices for transport.
    • The state of the Ukrainian gas transport system.
  • Situation in Ukraine
    • Ukraine’s need for imported gas.
    • The role and state of the underground storage facilities.
    • The search for alternatives to Russian supply, including LNG.
    • New prices.
  • Medium-term forecast for developments
    • The question is not only how this heating season will be passed, but what will happen next, especially if the forecasts come true about growth in the use of imported gas in the EU because of abandonment of coal and nuclear power and continuing decline in domestic production.
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1. Introduction

2. Ukrainian Gas Industry Status     

  • Ukraine’s Domestic Gas Production     
  • Gas Use Structure in Ukraine. Naftogaz-fought ‘Price Wars’     
  • Gas import into Ukraine: Can LNG replace reverse flow supply?     
  • Ukrainian USF   

3. Ukraine and its role in Russian gas transit system   

  • State of Ukrainian Gas Transport System. How Important Is Russian Transit?     
  • Importance of Transit Payments for Ukrainian Economy.Benefits of ‘Entry-Exit’ Pricing     
  • Ukraine as Part of System for Russian Gas Delivery to European Users     

4. Alternatives to Ukrainian Route. Is Supply to EU Possible without Ukrainian Transit?

5. Key Conclusions    

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  • Gazprom
  • Naftogaz
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All materials and sources used for issuing each report are thoroughly verified and analyzed by experts. The information is based on industry statistics, data of oil and gas companies, information of federal and regional mass-media, materials of conferences and round tables.

The analyst has pored on the following goals:

  • Analyses of oil & gas and power industries, political risks within the energy sector, geopolitical problems in connection with the production of hydrocarbons and their supply to the global market, strategic development of companies, new production and transportation projects
  • Consulting on the influence of political factors on the oil & gas business, decision-making within Russian energy companies and government bodies dealing with the energy industry
  • Development of energy business concepts in Russia
  • PR services for oil & gas corporations
  • Analysis of images and reputations of energy corporations