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The Iot Forecast: Connections, Revenue and Technology Trends 2019-2028

  • ID: 4911923
  • Report
  • January 2020
  • Region: Global
  • 25 Pages
  • Analysys Mason Group
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Connectivity Revenue Accounts for Only 8% of the Total IoT Revenue Opportunity; Operators Should Therefore Evaluate Their Strategies for Capturing Revenue From Other Areas of the Value Chain

The total number of IoT connections worldwide will grow at a CAGR of 22% between the end of 2018 and 2028, and will reach 5.3 billion in 2028. China will dominate in terms of the number of active IoT connections throughout the forecast period. The first 5G IoT connections will emerge in 2020 and their number will grow to 149 million by 2028.

The total value chain revenue will grow to USD211.5 billion by 2028, but connectivity revenue will only account for 8% of this. This report analyses the future trends in the growth of IoT revenue and the number of IoT connections, the impact of emerging IoT technologies and the sectors driving growth.

This report includes the analysis of:

  • Technology trends including the number of 2G, 3G/4G, 5G, NB-IoT, LTE-M and ‘other LPWA’ connections worldwide
  • Key industry sectors and the share of connections and revenue that they contribute
  • The revenue generated worldwide from hardware, applications and connectivity services.

Key metrics

Revenue for the following value chain elements:

  • Applications
  • Connectivity services
  • IoT hardware.

IoT connections worldwide and by region, by technology type:

  • 2G
  • 3G/4G
  • 5G
  • NB-IoT
  • LTE-M
  • 'Other LPWA'

Connections and revenue, by sector:

  • Automotive
  • Finance
  • Health
  • Industries
  • Smart Cities
  • Retail
  • Smart buildings
  • Utilities
  • Agriculture
  • Tracking
Note: Product cover images may vary from those shown
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1. Worldwide trends

  • Worldwide: the total number of IoT connections worldwide will grow sevenfold between 2018 and 2028 to reach 5.3 billion in 2028
  • Worldwide: the number of LPWA connections will surpass that of traditional cellular connections in 2025
  • Worldwide: China will generate the largest number of high-bandwidth 5G IoT connections
  • Worldwide: the total number of LPWA connections will grow to 3.2 billion by at a CAGR of 45%
  • Worldwide: automotive is the largest sector in terms of the total value chain revenue throughout the forecast period
  • Worldwide: application revenue will form the largest share of the total value chain revenue, reaching 66% by 2028
  • Worldwide: a larger proportion of LPWA revenue comes from hardware than for cellular revenue
  • Worldwide: connectivity ARPC is low and is subject to increasing price pressure
  • Worldwide: China, North America and Western Europe generate almost two-thirds of the total IoT revenue worldwide

2. Regional trends

  • Regional trends: IoT revenue in North America will grow to USD49 billion by and will form the largest share of the global total (23%)
  • Regional trends: China will generate significant IoT revenue from sectors other than automotive
  • Regional trends: Western Europe will generate the third-highest IoTrevenue by 2028
  • Regional trends: there will be 500 million IoT connections in developed Asia–Pacific by 2028; utilities and automotive will be the largest sectors
  • Regional trends: there will be almost 350 million IoT connections in Central and Eastern Europe by 2028, leading to USD16 billion in revenue
  • Regional trends: emerging Asia–Pacific (excluding China) will generate USD13 billion in IoT revenue by 2028, USD1 billion of which will be from connectivity
  • Regional trends: the IoT sector in Latin America will be driven by tracking and automotive applications by 2028
  • Regional trends: the IoT market in the Middle East and Africa has been slow to develop, but IoT revenue will grow to USD6.5 billion in 2028
  • Regional trends: new entrants deploying LPWA networks are shaking up the IoT connectivity market in Sub-Saharan Africa

3. IoT sector trends

  • Sector analysis: the automotive sector will generate the greatest share of IoT connections and connectivity revenue worldwide
  • Sector analysis: sector applications that are largely supported by LPWA technology will generate a much lower monthly connectivity ARPC
  • Sector analysis: the 5G IoT opportunity should be considered in terms of short-term, medium-term and long-term opportunities
  • Sector analysis: the automotive sector will generate 2.5 times more revenue than the next-largest sector

List of Figures

Figure 1: Total IoT connections by region, 2016–2028
Figure 2: Total IoT connections by network type, 2016–2028
Figure 3: 5G IoT connections by region, 2020–2028
Figure 4: LPWA connections, by technology, 2028
Figure 5: LPWA network announcements, by technology, 4Q 2018 and 4Q 2019
Figure 6: Connections share by sector, worldwide, 2016–2028
Figure 7: Connectivity revenue share by sector, worldwide, 2016–2028
Figure 8: Revenue by type and blended ARPC, worldwide, 2016–2028
Figure 9: Percentage of TVC revenue from each component for traditional cellular and LPWA networks, worldwide, 2028
Figure 10: IoT connections, by technology, worldwide, 2028
Figure 11: Percentage of cellular revenue from each component, worldwide, 2028
Figure 12: Percentage of LPWA revenue from each component, worldwide, 2028
Figure 13: Cellular and LPWA connectivity revenue and ARPC, worldwide, 2016–2028
Figure 14: Total IoT connections and total value chain revenue by region, 2028
Figure 15: IoT connections by sector, North America, 2028
Figure 16: 5G IoT connections by sector, North America, 2028
Figure 17: IoT connections by sector, China, 2028
Figure 18: 5G IoT connections by sector, China, 2028
Figure 19: IoT connections by sector, Western Europe, 2028
Figure 20: 5G IoT connections by sector, Western Europe, 2028
Figure 21: IoT connections by sector, DVAP, 2028
Figure 22: Connections share by technology, DVAP, 2018 and 2028
Figure 23: IoT connections by sector, CEE, 2028
Figure 24: Connections share by technology, CEE, 2018 and 2028
Figure 25: IoT connections by sector, EMAP, 2028
Figure 26: Connections share by technology, EMAP, 2018 and 2028
Figure 27: IoT connections by sector, LATAM, 2028
Figure 28: Connections share by technology, LATAM, 2018 and 2028
Figure 29: IoT connections by sector, MENA, 2028
Figure 30: Connections share by technology, MENA, 2018 and 2028
Figure 31: IoT connections by sector, SSA, 2028
Figure 32: Connections share by technology, SSA, 2018 and 2028
Figure 33: IoT connections by sector, worldwide, 2028
Figure 34: Connectivity revenue by sector, worldwide, 2028
Figure 35: Connectivity ARPC by sector, worldwide, 2016–2028
Figure 36: 5G IoT connections by sector, worldwide, 2020–2028
Figure 37: Percentage of the total value chain revenue from each revenue component, automotive sector, worldwide, 2028
Figure 38: Percentage of the total value chain revenue from each revenue component, smart buildings sector, worldwide, 2028
Figure 39: Percentage of the total value chain revenue from each revenue component, tracking sector, worldwide, 2028
Figure 40: Percentage of the total value chain revenue from each revenue component, utilities sector, worldwide, 2028
Figure 41: Percentage of the total value chain revenue from each revenue component, smart cities sector, worldwide, 2028
Figure 42: Percentage of the total value chain revenue from each revenue component, agriculture sector, worldwide, 2028
Figure 43: Percentage of the total value chain revenue from each revenue component, other sectors, worldwide, 2028
Figure 44: Previous IoT connections forecast versus new IoT connections forecast, worldwide, 2016–2027
Figure 45: Previous total value chain revenue forecast versus new total value chain revenue forecast, worldwide, 2016–2027
Figure 46: Previous connectivity revenue forecast versus new connectivity revenue forecast, worldwide, 2016–2027

Note: Product cover images may vary from those shown
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  • Central and Eastern Europe (CEE)
  • China
  • Developed Asia–Pacific (DVAP)
  • Emerging Asia–Pacific excluding China (EMAP)
  • Latin America (LATAM)
  • Middle East and North Africa (MENA)
  • North America (NA)
  • Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA)
  • Western Europe (WE)
Note: Product cover images may vary from those shown
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