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Global Telecoms Market: Trends and Forecasts 2019-2024

  • ID: 4985585
  • Report
  • February 2020
  • Region: Global
  • 49 Pages
  • Analysys Mason Group
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The increase in telecoms service revenue worldwide will be driven by growth in mobile handset revenue, with a modest contribution from 5G services, and fixed broadband revenue from developing nations.

Operators are focusing on 5G and next-generation fixed broadband technologies because saturated markets will limit the growth from legacy sources of mobile and fixed revenue. This report examines telecoms trends on a global and regional level and provides key insights into the future of these markets.

This report and data annex provide:

  • a 5-year forecast of more than 180 mobile and fixed KPIs for the worldwide telecoms markets and for eight regions
  • an in-depth analysis of the trends, drivers and forecast assumptions for each type of mobile and fixed service in each geographical region, and a worldwide summary
  • an overview of operator strategies and region-specific topics, in order to highlight similarities and differences by means of a cross-regional comparison
  • a summary of results, key implications, and recommendations for mobile and fixed operators.

Worldwide totals are refreshed every time any of the regional results are updated.

Key performance indicators

Connections

Mobile

  • Handset, mobile broadband, IoT
  • Prepaid, contract
  • 2G, 3G, 4G, 5G
  • Smartphone,
  • non-smartphone

    Fixed
  • Voice, broadband, IPTV, dial-up
  • Narrowband voice, VoBB
  • DSL, FTTP/B, cable, BFWA, other

Fixed and mobile voice traffic

  • Outgoing minutes, MoU

Revenue

Mobile

  • Service, retail
  • Prepaid, contract
  • Handset, mobile broadband, IoT
  • Handset voice, messaging, data

    Fixed
  • Service, retail
  • Voice, broadband, IPTV, dial-up, BNS
  • DSL, FTTP/B, cable, BFWA, other

Mobile ARPU

  • SIMs, handset
  • Prepaid, contract
  • Handset voice, data

The forecasts are informed by on-the-ground regional market experts from topic-led research programmes and a consulting division, as well as external interviews. In addition to the robust set of historical data, the forecasts draw on a unique and in-house modelling tool, which applies a rigorous methodology (reconciliation of different sources, standard definitions, top-down and bottom-up modelling).



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Chapter Numbers:

9. Executive summary
10. Growth in the global telecoms service revenue will be driven by growth in  both the number of fixed broadband connections and mobile handset data revenue
11. Retail revenue growth will be limited or negative in developed regions, but emerging markets’ retail revenue will continue to grow at a healthy rate
12. Geographical coverage: the 4G/5G share of mobile connections in North America and developed Asia–Pacific will reach 100% by 2024
13. Key trends, drivers and assumptions for the mobile and fixed markets
14. Regional forecasts and cross-country comparison
15. Market context: the telecoms share of GDP ranges from 1.4% in CEE to  2.0% in SSA
16. Key mergers, acquisitions, and market entries
17. Key drivers at a glance for each region
18. Market overview: growth in fixed broadband and mobile handset revenue  will drive the total telecoms service revenue growth
19. Mobile: the 5G share of mobile connections will reach 22% worldwide by 2024
20. Mobile: market competition will prevent mobile ARPU from rising during the forecast period, despite the boost due to new 5G connections
21. Mobile: operators will have to find new sources of revenue growth due to saturated markets in developed regions and high levels of mobile competition
22. Fixed: the FTTP/B share of fixed broadband connections will increase from 56% in 2019 to 64% in 2024
23. Fixed: North America will be the only region with significant fixed broadband ASPU growth due to its limited market competition
24. Fixed: fixed broadband penetration will continue to grow in developing regions; operators in developed markets will focus on the consumer experience
25. Specialist business services: revenue from all segments of business services will grow during the forecast period; IT service providers will dominate the market
26. IoT: the total number of IoT connections worldwide will grow sevenfold between 2018 and 2028 to reach 5.3 billion
27. Pay-TV: growth in pay-TV revenue will primarily be driven by OTT video services as revenue from traditional pay-TV will begin to decline
28. Individual country forecasts
29. Western Europe: the total revenue will remain flat due to declining revenue  from legacy services and intense competition in the mobile market
30. Western Europe: blended mobile ARPU will increase marginally, thanks to  growing data usage and customers’ migration to contract plans
31. Western Europe: the total telecoms service revenue will grow only slightly  because  only the fixed broadband market offers potential for significant  revenue growth
32. Western Europe: forecast changes
33. Central and Eastern Europe: telecoms service revenue growth will be  driven by the demand for data and the monetisation of network investments
34. Central and Eastern Europe: mobile ARPU will increase, stimulated by LTE expansions and the associated increase in mobile data usage
35. Central and Eastern Europe: total revenue growth will be driven by a rise in  the number of mobile contract subscriptions and increasing fixed broadband coverage
36. Central and Eastern Europe: forecast changes
37. Emerging Asia–Pacific: both mobile and fixed service revenue will continue to grow as penetration increases
38. Emerging Asia–Pacific: monthly data consumption per connection will more than triple during 2019–2024
39. Emerging Asia–Pacific: rising levels of competition and regulatory pressure will limit the growth in mobile ARPU and fixed broadband ASPU
40. Emerging Asia–Pacific: forecast changes
41. Developed Asia–Pacific: fixed broadband, IoT and business services  revenue will grow, but not by enough to offset declines in legacy services
42. Developed Asia–Pacific: the take-up of 5G services in DVAP will be rapid  thanks to favourable demand-side conditions
43. Developed Asia–Pacific: operators will focus on rolling out NGA networks and 5G services
44. Developed Asia–Pacific: forecast changes
45. Middle East and North Africa: the fast adoption of fixed broadband and mobile data services will help to maintain service revenue growth
46. Middle East and North Africa: mobile services will account for most of the telecoms revenue in the region, driven by the fast migration from 3G to 4G
47. Middle East and North Africa: monetising high-speed internet and mobile data access will be crucial to achieving telecoms retail revenue growth
48. Middle East and North Africa: forecast changes
49. Sub-Saharan Africa: mobile revenue will be the dominant contributor to the total telecoms revenue growth, but fixed broadband revenue will also grow strongly
50. Sub-Saharan Africa: the prepaid share of mobile connections will remain above 95%; this will play a role in keeping the ARPU low
51. Sub-Saharan Africa: SSA is a highly mobile-centric region with a strong potential for fixed broadband revenue growth
52. Sub-Saharan Africa: forecast changes
53. Latin America: mobile handset, fixed broadband and pay-TV revenue will be the main drivers of telecoms retail revenue growth in Latin America
54. Latin America: 4G and 5G will account for a majority of the mobile connections in Latin America by 2024
55. Latin America: fixed broadband revenue will account for the majority of the total telecoms retail revenue, driven by expansions in-network coverage
56. Latin America: forecast changes
57. North America: a lack of competition will allow both mobile and fixed service revenue to continue to grow
58. North America: the number of 5G connections will grow rapidly, thanks to early market launch in the USA
59. North America: fixed broadband will be the main driver of the total telecoms revenue growth, thanks to growth in both ARPU and household penetration
60. North America: forecast changes
61. Methodology
62. The forecast model is supported by the sound market knowledge
63. Examples of forecast input drivers
64. Key drivers at a glance table: methodology [1]
65. Key drivers at a glance table: methodology [2]
66. About the author

List of Figures
Figure 1: Telecoms and pay-TV retail revenue by type, and total service revenue, worldwide, 2014–2024
Figure 2: Growth in telecoms retail revenue and nominal GDP by country, worldwide, 2018–2024
Figure 3: 4G/5G share of mobile connections and NGA share of fixed broadband connections by region, worldwide, 2018 and 2024
Figure 4: Summary of key trends, drivers and assumptions for worldwide forecasts
Figure 5: Metrics for the eight regions modelled individually, 2018
Figure 6: Recent and upcoming market structure changes worldwide
Figure 7: Major forecast drivers: current situation (2018) and future trajectory  (2019–2024), by region, worldwide
Figure 8: Total fixed and mobile telecoms service revenue, worldwide (USD billion), 2014–2024
Figure 9: Mobile connections by type, worldwide (million), 2014–2024
Figure 10: Telecoms retail revenue and growth rate by service type, worldwide,  2014–2024
Figure 11: Fixed connections by type, worldwide (million), 2014–2024
Figure 12: Mobile connections by generation, worldwide (million), 2014–2024
Figure 13: Mobile ARPU by type, worldwide (USD per month), 2014–2024
Figure 14: Contract share of mobile connections (excluding IoT), worldwide,  2014–2024
Figure 15: Mobile data traffic per connection, worldwide (GB per month), 2014–2024
Figure 16: Mobile penetration by country, worldwide, 2014–2024
Figure 17: Mobile ARPU by country, worldwide, 2014–2024
Figure 18: Broadband connections by technology, worldwide (million), 2014–2024
Figure 19: Fixed retail revenue by service, worldwide (USD billion), 2014–2024
Figure 20: NGA broadband household penetration and NGA share of broadband connections, worldwide, 2014–2024
Figure 21: Fixed Internet traffic per broadband connection, worldwide (GB per month), 2014–2024
Figure 22: Fixed broadband household penetration by country, worldwide, 2014–2024
Figure 23: Fixed broadband access ASPU by country, worldwide, 2014–2024
Figure 24: Total market revenue from specialist business services, worldwide, 2014–2024
Figure 25: Total IoT value chain revenue by sector, worldwide, 2014–2024
Figure 26: Retail revenue from pay-TV, worldwide, 2014–2024
Figure 27: Total fixed and mobile telecoms service revenue, Western Europe (USD billion), 2014–2024
Figure 28: Mobile connections by type, Western Europe (million), 2014–2024
Figure 29: Telecoms retail revenue and growth rate by service type, Western Europe, 2014–2024
Figure 30: Fixed connections by type, Western Europe (million), 2014–2024
Figure 31: 4G, 5G and contract share of mobile connections, Western Europe, 2014–2024
Figure 32: Mobile ARPU, fixed voice ASPU, and fixed broadband ASPU, Western Europe (USD per month), 2014–2024
Figure 33: Mobile data traffic per connection, Western Europe (GB per month), 2014–2024
Figure 34: Broadband connections by technology, Western Europe (million), 2014–2024
Figure 35: Total telecoms service revenue – current and previous forecasts, Western Europe, 2014–2024
Figure 36: Total fixed and mobile telecoms service revenue, Central and Eastern Europe (USD billion), 2014–2024
Figure 37: Mobile connections by type, Central and Eastern Europe (million), 2014–2024
Figure 38: Telecoms retail revenue and growth rate by service type, Central and Eastern Europe, 2014–2024
Figure 39: Fixed connections by type, Central and Eastern Europe (million), 2014–2024
Figure 40: 4G, 5G and contract share of mobile connections, Central and Eastern Europe, 2014–2024
Figure 41: Mobile ARPU, fixed voice ASPU, and fixed broadband ASPU, Central and Eastern Europe (USD per month), 2014–2024
Figure 42: Mobile data traffic per connection, Central and Eastern Europe (GB per month), 2014–2024
Figure 43: Broadband connections by technology, Central and Eastern Europe(million), 2014–2024
Figure 44: Total telecoms service revenue – current and previous forecasts, Central and Eastern Europe, 2014–2024
Figure 45: Total fixed and mobile telecoms service revenue, emerging Asia–Pacific (USD billion), 2014–2024
Figure 46: Mobile connections by type, emerging Asia–Pacific (billion), 2014–2024
Figure 47: Telecoms retail revenue and growth rate by service type, emerging Asia–Pacific, 2014–2024
Figure 48: Fixed connections by type, emerging Asia–Pacific (million), 2014–2024
Figure 49: 4G, 5G and contract share of mobile connections emerging Asia–Pacific, 2014–2024
Figure 50: Mobile ARPU, fixed voice ASPU, and fixed broadband ASPU, emerging Asia–Pacific (USD per month), 2014–2024
Figure 51: Mobile data traffic per connection, emerging Asia–Pacific (GB per month), 2014–2024
Figure 52: Broadband connections by technology, emerging Asia–Pacific(million), 2014–2024
Figure 53: Total telecoms service revenue – current and previous forecasts, emerging Asia–Pacific, 2014–2024
Figure 54: Total fixed and mobile telecoms service revenue, developed Asia–Pacific (USD billion), 2014–2024
Figure 55: Mobile connections by type, developed Asia–Pacific (million), 2014–2024
Figure 56: Telecoms retail revenue and growth rate by service type, developed Asia–Pacific, 2014–2024
Figure 57: Fixed connections by type, developed Asia–Pacific (million), 2014–2024
Figure 58: 4G, 5G and contract share of mobile connections, developed Asia–Pacific, 2014–2024
Figure 59: Mobile ARPU, fixed voice ASPU, and fixed broadband ASPU  developed Asia–Pacific (USD per month), 2014–2024
Figure 60: Mobile data traffic per connection, developed Asia–Pacific (GB per month), 2014–2024
Figure 61: Broadband connections by technology, developed Asia–Pacific (million), 2014–2024
Figure 62: Total telecoms service revenue – current and previous forecasts, developed Asia–Pacific, 2014–2024
Figure 63: Total fixed and mobile telecoms service revenue, Middle East and north Africa (USD billion), 2014–2024
Figure 64: Mobile connections by type, Middle East and North Africa (million),2014–2024
Figure 65: Telecoms retail revenue and growth rate by service type, Middle East and North Africa, 2014–2024
Figure 66: Fixed connections by type, Middle East and North Africa (million),2014–2024
Figure 67: 4G, 5G and contract share of mobile connections, Middle East and north Africa, 2014–2024
Figure 68: Mobile ARPU, fixed voice ASPU, and fixed broadband ASPU, MiddleEast and North Africa (USD per month), 2014–2024
Figure 69: Mobile data traffic per connection, Middle East and North Africa (GB per month), 2014–2024
Figure 70: Broadband connections by technology, Middle East and North Africa(million), 2014–2024
Figure 71: Total telecoms service revenue – current and previous forecasts, Middle East and North Africa, 2014–2024
Figure 72: Total fixed and mobile telecoms service revenue, Sub-Saharan Africa(USD billion), 2014–2024
Figure 73: Mobile connections by type, Sub-Saharan Africa (billion), 2014–2024
Figure 74: Telecoms retail revenue and growth rate by service type, Sub-Saharan Africa, 2014–2024
Figure 75: Fixed connections by type, Sub-Saharan Africa (million), 2014–2024
Figure 76: 4G, 5G and contract share of mobile connections, Sub-Saharan Africa, 2014–2024
Figure 77: Mobile ARPU, fixed voice ASPU, and fixed broadband ASPU, SubSaharanAfrica(USD per month),2014–2024
Figure 78: Mobile data traffic per connection, Sub-Saharan Africa (GB per month), 2014–2024
Figure 79: Broadband connections by technology, Sub-Saharan Africa (million),2014–2024
Figure 80: Total telecoms service revenue – current and previous forecasts, Sub-Saharan Africa, 2014–2024
Figure 81: Total fixed and mobile telecoms service revenue, Latin America (USD billion), 2014–2024
Figure 82: Mobile connections by type, Latin America (million), 2014–2024
Figure 83: Telecoms retail revenue and growth rate by service type, Latin America, 2014–2024
Figure 84: Fixed connections by type, Latin America (million), 2014–2024
Figure 85: 4G, 5G and contract share of mobile connections, Latin America, 2014–2024
Figure 86: Mobile ARPU, fixed voice ASPU, and fixed broadband ASPU, Latin America (USD per month), 2014–2024
Figure 87: Mobile data traffic per connection, Latin America (GB per month), 2014–2024
Figure 88: Broadband connections by technology, Latin America (million), 2014–2024
Figure 89: Total telecoms service revenue – current and previous forecasts, Latin America, 2014–2024
Figure 90: Total fixed and mobile telecoms service revenue, North America(USD billion), 2014–2024
Figure 91: Mobile connections by type, North America (million), 2014–2024
Figure 92: Telecoms retail revenue and growth rate by service type, North America, 2014–2024
Figure 93: Fixed connections by type, North America (million), 2014–2024
Figure 94: 4G, 5G and contract share of mobile connections, North America, 2014–2024
Figure 95: Mobile ARPU, fixed voice ASPU, and fixed broadband ASPU, NorthAmerica (USD per month), 2014–2024
Figure 96: Mobile data traffic per connection, North America (GB per month),2014–2024
Figure 97: Broadband connections by technology, North America (million),2014–2024
Figure 98: Total telecoms service revenue – current and previous forecasts, North America, 2014–2024
Figure 99a: Methodology for attributing scores to each element in the key drivers table (current and future) and the impact of high scores
Figure 99b: Methodology for attributing scores to each element in the key drivers table (current and future) and the impact of high scores

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