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Country Risk Service North Macedonia 1st Quarter

  • ID: 4988906
  • Country Profile
  • February 2021
  • Region: North Macedonia
  • 26 Pages
  • The Economist Intelligence Unit
The sovereign risk score has improved by 2 points, to 53, since The Economist Intelligence Unit's August 2020 assessment; the rating remains at B. Political risks have decreased since the July 2020 election, and financing conditions have improved because of an increase in foreign-exchange reserves. High public debt, vulnerability to external shocks, financing constraints and weak institutions are the main sources of risk.

The currency risk score has improved by 1 point, to 49, and the rating remains at BB. Underlying political risks, a wide current-account deficit and vulnerability to external shocks are the main sources of currency risk. An adverse macroeconomic backdrop and lingering risks of a correction in asset price valuations owing to the pandemic are also a source of risk.

The score and rating are unchanged at 53 and B. Shortcomings in the regulatory environment, exposure to foreign-currency liabilities and a deterioration in asset quality caused by the coronavirus pandemic are the main sources of risk.
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Country Risk Service North Macedonia 1st Quarter

Risk assessment
Sovereign risk
Currency risk
Banking sector risk
Political risk
Economic structure risk

Definitions
Sovereign risk
Currency risk
Banking sector risk
Political risk
Economic structure risk
Overall country risk

Sovereign risk
Current assessment
Positive factors
Negative factors
Rating outlook

Currency risk
Current assessment
Positive factors
Negative factors
Rating outlook
Foreign-exchange regime

Banking sector risk
Current assessment
Positive factors
Negative factors
Rating outlook

Generic risks
Political risk assessment
Economic structure risk assessment

Country risk
Overall country risk

Central scenario for 2021-25: Political stability

Central scenario for 2021-25: Election watch

Central scenario for 2021-25: International relations

Central scenario for 2021-25: Policy trends

Central scenario for 2021-25: Fiscal policy

Central scenario for 2021-25: Monetary policy

Central scenario for 2021-25: Economic growth

Central scenario for 2021-25: Inflation

Central scenario for 2021-25: Exchange rates

Central scenario for 2021-25: External sector

Central scenario for 2021-25: External financing requirement

Central scenario for 2021-25: External debt

Key risk indicators

Ratings summary

Quarterly indicators

International assumptions summary

Economic structure

Public finances

Exchange rates, interest rates and prices

Financial sector

Current account

International liquidity

Foreign payment and liquidity indicators

External trade

External financing requirement

External debt stock

External debt service
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