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Disease Analysis: Multiple Sclerosis

  • Report

  • 82 Pages
  • May 2021
  • Region: Global
  • Citeline
  • ID: 4997160
Definition

Multiple sclerosis (MS) is widely recognized as the most common neurological and inflammatory disorder of the central nervous system (CNS) in the adult population. It is a chronic, recurrent, progressive autoimmune disorder characterized by repeated episodes of inflammation of the white matter nervous tissue of the CNS. The location of the inflammation varies from person to person and from episode to episode, and as such, results in a variety of clinical symptoms. The periventricular regions, optic nerves, brainstem, cerebellum, and spinal cord are common locations for inflammation in MS. The average age for disease onset is 30 years, with women being twice as likely to develop MS compared to men.

Latest Key Takeaways
  • The publisher estimates that in 2018, there were 2.1 million prevalent cases of multiple sclerosis (MS) worldwide, and forecasts that number to increase to 2.2 million prevalent cases by 2027.
  • A large selection of disease-modifying therapies (DMTs) are currently available in the MS market with a sizable range of attributes, potencies, and safety profiles. Consequently, this set of DMTs typically can yield some relief from this chronic condition.
  • Utilization of first-generation DMTs such as Avonex, Betaseron, Copaxone, and Rebif is declining due to their comparatively poor safety, efficacy, and administration profiles versus newer DMTs. Most are genericized, but still see some use in the first-line treatment setting, particularly for less-severe cases of MS and especially where payer pressure is involved.
  • Since Ocrevus’s launch in 2017, the drug has quickly risen to realize its gold-standard potential in the wider MS field. Its efficacy is unparalleled, and coupled with its six-monthly dosing regimen, the drug is popular with patients and physicians alike. As the only approved therapy for primary progressive MS (PPMS), it has little competition in this patient segment. Furthermore, Ocrevus is increasingly being prescribed at the first and second lines of treatment in other MS subtypes, and particularly in more rapidly progressing and severe cases.
  • Long-awaited decisions have come from the key patent litigation trials of former blockbuster DMTs. In 2020 it was ruled that Biogen’s ‘514 patent, protecting Tecfidera until 2028, was invalid. This paved the way for Mylan to gain FDA approval for its dimethyl fumarate generic and launch the drug in rapid succession.
  • Novartis fared better in litigation trials, as a US district court upheld the validity of the Gilenya dosing regimen patent, which is set to expire in December 2027 (inclusive of the pediatric exclusivity extension). However, Novartis has previously settled agreements with some generic drug companies, and generic fingolimod will likely enter the market before the expiration of the Gilenya patent. Nevertheless, at least for the next few years, Novartis will enjoy exclusivity for its blockbuster oral MS therapy.
  • Bristol Myers Squibb’s Zeposia, a sphingosine-1-phosphate (S1P) receptor modulator, was approved in 2020 for relapsing forms of multiple sclerosis (RMS), and will provide stiff competition for rival S1P drugs Gilenya and Mayzent. Meanwhile, market penetration may be difficult for Johnson & Johnson’s Ponvory, which was approved in March 2021. As another S1P receptor modulator, the drug lacks a clearly distinguished profile from its rivals.
  • Another recent event in the MS space was Novartis’s anti-CD20 targeting drug Kesimpta receiving FDA approval for the treatment of RMS in adults. This positions the drug as a direct market competitor of Roche’s dominant Ocrevus, though Roche has the underserved PPMS segment contained in the Ocrevus label. Kesimpta, however, has the advantage of a more appealing subcutaneous administration route.
  • High-impact upcoming events for drugs in the MS space that are expected by the end of 2021 include an EU approval decision for Vumerity and Phase II topline results for elezanumab.

Table of Contents

OVERVIEW
  • Latest key takeaways

DISEASE BACKGROUND
  • Definition
  • Patient segmentation
  • Symptoms
  • Risk factors
  • Diagnosis

TREATMENT
  • Summary of key treatment guideline recommendations

EPIDEMIOLOGY
  • Prevalence methodology

MARKETED DRUGSPIPELINE DRUGS
KEY REGULATORY EVENTS
  • Tysabri Stays IV, For Now
  • NICE Funding Wins For Enhertu & Kesimpta Are Firsts For England
  • Breakthrough Device That Improves Gait In People With MS Authorized By FDA
  • CHMP Recommends EU-Wide Approval Of Ponvory
  • Janssen’s Newly Approved Ponvory Joins Crowded MS Space
  • Teva Under Investigation For Creating ‘False Perceptions’ Of Generics
  • FDA Approves Intramuscular Formulation For Plegridy
  • Novartis Wins EU Thumbs Up For MS Treatment
  • Diroximel Fumarate Among New EU Filings
  • NICE OKs Sarclisa & Mayzent For Funding In England, But Rejects Vindaqel
  • Novartis's Kesimpta Goes Up Against Roche's Ocrevus In MS
  • EMA To Revisit Rejection Of Elzonris & Gamifant
  • Updated: Mylan Presses On With US Tecfidera Launch ‘At Risk’
  • Resubmission Of NDA For Osmotica’s Arbaclofen Extended Release
  • English Funding Setback For Novartis’s Mayzent
  • Novartis’s MS Franchise Setback For Ofatumumab In US
  • Mylan Pulls Generic Gilenya Application Over Study Concerns
  • New Approvals In Spotlight As China Gears For National Congress
  • MAA Withdrawals

PROBABILITY OF SUCCESS
LICENSING AND ASSET ACQUISITION DEALS
  • Sorrento Acquires Abivertinib Partner ACEA
  • Lilly Broadens Its CNS Reach With Rigel RIPK1 Deal
  • Jazz Wades Into Cannabinoid Weeds With $7.2bn GW Buy
  • Clene Nanomedicine Goes Public In SPAC Buyout
  • MyMD Goes Public Through Reverse Merger With Akers
  • Cytocom Goes Public Via Merger With Cleveland BioLabs
  • Progentec Licenses University IP For MS-Related DX Products
  • Bristol Opts To Expand Celgene Partnership With Dragonfly

CLINICAL TRIAL LANDSCAPE
  • Sponsors by status
  • Sponsors by phase
  • Recent events

DRUG ASSESSMENT MODEL
  • Genericized DMTs
  • Anti-CD20 drugs
  • S1P receptor modulator drugs
  • Pipeline drugs

MARKET DYNAMICS
FUTURE TRENDS
  • Widespread genericization will deplete key brands’ market share
  • Drugs utilizing novel mechanisms for MS are in development
  • Key brands will face competition from pipeline “me-too” drugs, though uptake may be slow if distinguishing factors cannot be established
  • More DMTs will become available for underserved MS patient populations

CONSENSUS FORECASTS
RECENT EVENTS AND ANALYST OPINION
  • Ontinua ER for Multiple Sclerosis (December 29, 2020)
  • Ublituximab for Multiple Sclerosis (December 10, 2020)
  • Analyst Opinion
  • Opicinumab for Multiple Sclerosis (October 21, 2020)
  • IMU-838 for Multiple Sclerosis (August 2, 2020)
  • SAR442168 for Multiple Sclerosis (April 23, 2020)
  • Qizenday for Multiple Sclerosis (March 10, 2020)
  • Masitinib for Multiple Sclerosis (February 20, 2020)
  • SAR442168 for Multiple Sclerosis (February 6, 2020)
  • Gocovri for Multiple Sclerosis (December 17, 2019)

KEY UPCOMING EVENTS
KEY OPINION LEADER INSIGHTS
  • Quotes regarding specific drug use
  • Quote regarding unmet needs
  • Quotes regarding pricing

UNMET NEEDS
  • More effective therapies for PPMS/SPMS
  • Development of neuroprotective/remyelinating therapies

BIBLIOGRAPHYAPPENDIX
LIST OF FIGURES
Figure 1: Trends in prevalent cases of multiple sclerosis, 2018–27
Figure 2: Overview of pipeline drugs for multiple sclerosis in the US
Figure 3: Pipeline drugs for multiple sclerosis, by company
Figure 4: Pipeline drugs for multiple sclerosis, by drug type
Figure 5: Pipeline drugs for multiple sclerosis, by classification
Figure 6: Probability of success in the multiple sclerosis pipeline
Figure 7: Clinical trials in multiple sclerosis
Figure 8: Top 10 drugs for clinical trials in multiple sclerosis
Figure 9: Top 10 companies for clinical trials in multiple sclerosis
Figure 10: Trial locations in multiple sclerosis
Figure 11: Multiple sclerosis trials status
Figure 12: Multiple sclerosis trials sponsors, by phase
Figure 13: The publisher’s drug assessment summary for multiple sclerosis
Figure 14: Market dynamics in multiple sclerosis
Figure 15: Future trends in multiple sclerosis
Figure 16: Ublituximab for Multiple Sclerosis (December 10, 2020): Phase III - ULTIMATE I, Phase III - ULTIMATE II
Figure 17: Opicinumab for Multiple Sclerosis (October 21, 2020): Phase IIb - AFFINITY
Figure 18: IMU-838 for Multiple Sclerosis (August 2, 2020): Phase II - EMPhASIS
Figure 19: SAR442168 for Multiple Sclerosis (April 23, 2020): Phase IIb - Dose Finding
Figure 20: Qizenday for Multiple Sclerosis (March 10, 2020): Phase III - MS-SPI2
Figure 21: Masitinib for Multiple Sclerosis (February 20, 2020): Phase IIb/III - PPMS/SPMS
Figure 22: Gocovri for Multiple Sclerosis (December 17, 2019): Phase III - INROADS (Walking Impairment)
Figure 23: Key upcoming events in multiple sclerosis
LIST OF TABLES
Table 1: Clinical subtypes of multiple sclerosis
Table 2: Leading disease-modifying therapies for multiple sclerosis
Table 3: Available DMTs and the strength of the evidence base supporting their efficacy in preventing MS relapses
Table 4: Prevalent cases of multiple sclerosis, 2018–27
Table 5: Marketed drugs for multiple sclerosis
Table 6: Pipeline drugs for multiple sclerosis in the US
Table 7: Historical global sales, by drug ($m), 2016–20
Table 8: Forecasted global sales, by drug ($m), 2021–25
Table 9: Ontinua ER for Multiple Sclerosis (December 29, 2020)
Table 10: Ublituximab for Multiple Sclerosis (December 10, 2020)
Table 11: Opicinumab for Multiple Sclerosis (October 21, 2020)
Table 12: IMU-838 for Multiple Sclerosis (August 2, 2020)
Table 13: SAR442168 for Multiple Sclerosis (April 23, 2020)
Table 14: Qizenday for Multiple Sclerosis (March 10, 2020)
Table 15: Masitinib for Multiple Sclerosis (February 20, 2020)
Table 16: SAR442168 for Multiple Sclerosis (February 6, 2020)
Table 17: Gocovri for Multiple Sclerosis (December 17, 2019)