Cable broadband players are already under pressure in many European countries and the competitive threat posed by alternative technologies is set to grow.
There is still great potential to increase the number of NGA subscribers. We expect that the total number of FTTP subscribers worldwide will increase by 45% between the end of 2019 and the end of 2025, which particularly reflects robust growth in emerging markets.
This report analyses and forecasts conversion (premises with active connections as a percentage of premises passed) for FTTx architecture and technologies during 2019-2025.
Key metrics covered in this report
- Conversion rates (that is, premises with active connections as a percentage of premises passed)
- Connection numbers
- Connection rate of premises passed
Split by architecture/technology:
- FTTC/VDSL or G.fast
- FTTB/VDSL or G.fast
- FTTP (split by incumbent and alternative operator)
- Cable DOCSIS3.0 or 3.1
The report and accompanying data annex provide forecasts for 8 regions and 64 individual countries.
Austria, Belgium, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Iceland, Ireland, Italy, Netherlands, Norway, Portugal, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, UK.
Central and Eastern Europe
Bulgaria, Croatia, Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Romania, Russia, Serbia, Slovakia, Slovenia, Turkey, Ukraine.
Middle East and North Africa
Israel, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, UAE.
Ghana, Kenya, Nigeria, South Africa.
China, India, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand, Vietnam.
Australia, Hong Kong, Japan, New Zealand, Singapore, South Korea, Taiwan.
Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Mexico, Peru, Uruguay.
Key Questions Answered in this report
- How quickly will subscriber conversion rates on next-generation access (NGA) infrastructure increase over the next few years?
- Which markets worldwide are likely to have the highest rates of growth for next-generation access (NGA) subscriber conversion during the forecast period?
- What is the threat posed to wireline NGA subscriber conversion by wireless technologies such as 5G mmWave fixed-wireless access?
- How will cable broadband be affected by the growth in the number of FTTx subscribers?
Who Should Read this Report
This report provides strategic planners with detailed and comprehensive insights into the development of FTTx. The report allows strategic planners to understand how quickly subscriber connection rates are likely to grow in the future and how the growth rate has been accelerated in different cases. This report shows the scale of the FTTx opportunity for equipment vendors and component suppliers.
7. Worldwide trends
8. NGA conversion rates will only grow slightly during the forecast period, but NGA subscriber numbers will increase significantly
9. Cable broadband players are facing increasing pressure from FTTP roll-outs in many European countries
10. Growth in the number of cable broadband subscribers will be constrained by FTTP roll-outs
11. Non-incumbent FTTP take-up rates in Western Europe are currently highly variable, but will start to converge during the forecast period
12. Challenger infrastructure roll-outs will affect FTTP conversion in VDSL-dominated markets
13. Most operators in developed markets still have very few gigabit subscribers and such speeds are not common in entry-level FTTP tiers
14. The migration to gigabit FTTP speeds will take many years in most countries if there are no retail price incentives or free speed upgrades
15. There is still significant potential for growth in the number of NGA connections in emerging markets
16. Western Europe
17. NGA conversion rates will grow strongly in Western Europe during the forecast period
18. Central and Eastern Europe
19. NGA conversion rates will grow steadily, but unspectacularly, in CEE during the forecast period
20. Middle East and North Africa
21. NGA conversion rates are growing in MENA, but they remain constrained by a diverse set of factors
22. Sub-Saharan Africa
23. It is somewhat surprising that there have not been more-extensive roll-outs in Sub-Saharan Africa given the high NGA conversion rate
25. There is now very little potential for growth in fibre conversion rates in China
26. Rest of emerging Asia-Pacific
27. The overall NGA conversion rate in the rest of EMAP will be 44% at the end of 2025, which reflects the ongoing opportunities for growth in the fixed broadband segment
28. Developed Asia-Pacific
29. The threat of wireless substitution is intensifying in a number of countries in DVAP
30. North America
31. We forecast that there will be a smaller decline in the number of NGA subscribers in North America than previously anticipated
32. Latin America
33. Incumbent copper decommissioning plans have caused NGA conversion rates to increase significantly
34. Forecast methodology and assumptions
35. Geographical scope: forecasts are provided for 64 countries in 8 regions
37. About the author