The analyst forecasts that the percentage of global premises covered by next-generation access will rise from 55.2% at the end of 2019 to 65% at the end of 2025.
The business case for investment in FTTP access networks has become clearer in both emerging and developed markets. FTTP roll-outs will drive up global next-generation access (NGA) coverage from 55% at the of end 2019 to 65% at the end of 2025.
This report provides:
- 7-year forecasts for flavours of FTTx and cable (DOCSIS3.0/3.1) coverage in 8 regions and 64 individual markets
- analysis of the key trends, drivers and inhibitors of network roll-out of FTTx
- an assessment of the level of capital expenditure to 2025.
Key questions answered in this report
- How quickly will next-generation access (NGA) coverage grow across different global regions and individual markets?
- Which markets represent the most-promising opportunities for vendors in terms of NGA coverage expansion?
- To what extent can NGA coverage grow in emerging markets across the globe?
- What will be the scale of roll-outs from non-incumbent FTTP operators?
- What are the coverage levels of Gigabit-capable broadband?
- Coverage (premises passed)
- Capex (network and connection)
- Split by architecture/technology:
- FTTC/VDSL or G.fast, FTTB/VDSL or G.fast, FTTB/LAN
- FTTP (split by incumbent and alternative operator)
- Cable DOCSIS3.0 or 3.1 (note: capex is not provided for cable DOCSIS3.0 or 3.1).
The report and accompanying data annex provide forecasts for 8 regions and 64 individual countries.
Austria, Belgium, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Iceland, Ireland, Italy, Netherlands, Norway, Portugal, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, UK.
Central and Eastern Europe
Bulgaria, Croatia, Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Romania, Russia, Serbia, Slovakia, Slovenia, Turkey, Ukraine.
Middle East and North Africa
Israel, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, UAE.
Ghana, Kenya, Nigeria, South Africa
China, India, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand, Vietnam.
Australia, Hong Kong, Japan, New Zealand, Singapore, South Korea, Taiwan.
Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Mexico, Peru, Uruguay.
Who Should Read this Report:
This report provides strategic planners with detailed and comprehensive insight into the development of FTTx in comparable markets, allowing them to understand what level and type of investment is appropriate, and where opportunities lie. For equipment vendors, construction businesses and component suppliers, it shows the scale of opportunity in FTTx. The model can also serve several other functions beyond the immediate scope of this report. It can be used to provide the costs of alternative scenarios, including different mixes of technologies, different demand profiles in different geotypes, and different completion dates. If you wish to explore these options, please contact the author.
6. Worldwide trends
7. The analyst's forecast that 2019 was the peak year for global FTTx capex worldwide
8. FTTP will increase its dominance of the global NGA landscape during the forecast period
9. FTTP and cable networks are the only viable options for meeting coverage targets for gigabit-capable broadband
10. Roll-out plans in most countries in Western Europe currently miss the Gigabit Society’s targets by some margin
11. Much work remains in Central and Eastern Europe in order to meet the EU’s Gigabit Society’s targets
12. The rate at which FTTP can be built out depends on the existing level of usable infrastructure, but regulation can help to speed up roll-outs
13. Non-incumbent operators can also rapidly increase FTTP coverage, particularly if they have access to their own or rented infrastructure
14. There are opportunities for FTTP vendors to benefit from significant coverage increases in some, but not all, large emerging markets
15. Western Europe
16. We forecast strong levels of investment in FTTP networks in Western Europe throughout the forecast period
17. Central and Eastern Europe
18. The number of non-incumbent FTTP deployments in rural areas in Central and Eastern Europe is growing, but not dramatically
19. Middle East and North Africa
20. Government intervention is driving an increase in fibre coverage in the Middle East and North Africa, and the focus on wholesale access in the region is increasing
21. Sub-Saharan Africa
22. NGA coverage in Sub-Saharan Africa is constrained by affordability, the high cost of deployment and the lack of availability of fibre backbone infrastructure
24. FTTP coverage is already very high in China and the focus has shifted to upgrading to next-generation PON
25. Emerging Asia–Pacific
26. The number of FTTP deployments in several countries in the EMAP region increased in 2019 and this momentum will continue
27. Developed Asia–Pacific
28. Several drivers explain the growth in the number of next-generation PON deployments in developed Asia–Pacific
29. North America
30. The number of new fibre entrants in North America is far fewer than in Western Europe
31. Latin America
32. Investment in FTTx networks in LATAM continues to be strong, although this will slow down during the forecast period
33. Forecast methodology and assumptions
34. Geographical scope: forecasts are provided for 64 countries in 8 regions
36. We take baseline costs for each technology and then apply several context-specific variables to determine total capexTop-level breakdown of the relative costs of FTTx technologies: basic topologies
37. Top-level breakdown of the relative costs of FTTx technologies: basic topologies
38. About the author
List of Figures
Figure 1: FTTx capex, by worldwide region, 2015–2025
Figure 2: NGA coverage by technology, worldwide, 2015–2025
Figure 3: Percentage of premises covered by gigabit-capable networks, Western Europe, 2019 and 2025
Figure 4: Percentage of premises covered by gigabit-capable networks, Central and Eastern Europe, 2019 and 2025
Figure 5: Percentage of premises covered by gigabit-capable networks, North America and developed Asia–Pacific, 2019 and 2025
Figure 6: Incumbent operators’ maximum year-on-year percentage point increases in FTTP coverage, as a percentage of total premises passed, selected countries
Figure 7: Incumbent operators’ maximum year-on-year percentage point increases in FTTP coverage, as a percentage of total premises passed, selected countries
Figure 8: FTTP coverage of total premises, by selected counties in emerging markets, 2019 and 2025
Figure 9: NGA coverage by technology, Western Europe, 2017–2025
Figure 10: FTTx capex by technology, Western Europe, 2017–2025
Figure 11: NGA coverage by technology, Central and Eastern Europe, 2017–2025
Figure 12: FTTx capex by technology, Central and Eastern Europe, 2017–2025
Figure 13: NGA coverage by technology, Middle East and North Africa, 2017–2025
Figure 14: FTTx capex by technology, Middle East and North Africa, 2017–2025
Figure 15: NGA coverage by technology, Sub-Saharan Africa, 2017–2025
Figure 16: FTTx capex by technology, Sub-Saharan Africa, 2017–2025
Figure 17: NGA coverage by technology, China, 2017–2025
Figure 18: FTTx capex by technology, China, 2017–2025
Figure 19: NGA coverage by technology, emerging Asia–Pacific excluding China, 2017–2025
Figure 20: FTTx capex by technology, emerging Asia–Pacific excluding China, 2017–2025
Figure 21: NGA coverage by technology, developed Asia–Pacific, 2017–2025
Figure 22: FTTx capex by technology, developed Asia–Pacific, 2017–2025
Figure 23: NGA coverage by technology, North America, 2017–2025
Figure 24: FTTx capex by technology, North America, 2017–2025
Figure 25: NGA coverage by technology, Latin America, 2017–2025
Figure 26: FTTx capex by technology, Latin America, 2017–2025
Figure 27: Countries covered in this report, by region
Figure 28: Definitions used in this report
Figure 29: Capex model outline
Figure 30: Basic overview of FTTx network topologies and elements