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Communication Services: Worldwide Trends and Forecasts 2019-2024

  • ID: 5011498
  • Report
  • April 2020
  • Region: Global
  • 24 Pages
  • Analysys Mason Group
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79 trillion OTT IP Messages were sent in 2019; this is 16 Times the Number of Messages that were sent using SMS

This report provides an outlook on the mobile communication services market worldwide. It provides forecasts for voice and messaging services provided by both mobile network operators and over-the-top (OTT) providers.

This report provides:

  • forecasts for operator services including VoLTE, Wi-Fi calling and IP messaging, as well as traditional voice and SMS
  • quantification of the level of substitution from traditional services to OTT alternatives
  • user and traffic forecasts for communication services, including OTT voice and messaging
  • an outlook for multi-device usage across smartphones, tablets and PCs/laptops
  • detailed forecasts for 63 individual countries and eight regions.

Key Metrics

Non-operator/OTT services

  • Voice and messaging
  • Active users by device type
  • Outgoing traffic by device type

Operator traditional services

  • Handsets
  • Circuit-switched (CS) voice and SMS
  • Outgoing traffic

Operator IP-based services

  • Active users by service type:
    • VoLTE, Wi-Fi calling, IP messaging
  • Outgoing traffic by service type
    • VoLTE, Wi-Fi calling, IP messaging
  • Retail revenue
    • voice and messaging
    • average spend per user

Who should read this Report

  • Strategy and planning executives that are responsible for mobile operators’ communication services strategies and partnerships with OTT players.
  • Executives in mobile operators’ technology and innovations teams that are responsible for developing communication services.
  • Marketing executives at vendors of communication services equipment and software, as it will help them to understand the needs of their operator customers and to size the addressable market for their products.

Regions

  • Central and Eastern Europe (CEE)
  • Developed Asia-Pacific (DVAP)
  • Emerging Asia-Pacific (EMAP)
  • Latin America (LATAM)
  • Middle East and North Africa (MENA)
  • North America (NA)
  • Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA)
  • Western Europe (WE)
Note: Product cover images may vary from those shown
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  1. Worldwide trends
  2. Worldwide: 79 trillion OTT IP messages were sent in 2019; this is 16 times the number of messages that were sent using SMS
  3. Worldwide: 82% of smartphone users were active on OTT messaging apps in 2019; the growth in penetration of these apps will slow down in the coming years
  4. Worldwide: the OTT communication market is heading towards saturation; the largest opportunities for penetration growth reside outside voice and messaging
  5. Worldwide: smartphones will continue to be the dominant communication devices, but the use of emerging devices will increase
  6. Worldwide: strategic responses from operators vary significantly in different regions
  7. Worldwide: operators are continuing to migrate smartphone users to VoLTE services; nearly 5.7 billion VoLTE subscribers are expected by 2024
  8. Worldwide: operators are continuing to roll out Wi-Fi calling services to improve consumer call quality and relieve mobile network traffic
  9. Worldwide: the number of RCS users is growing, and 48% of smartphone users will use the technology by the end of the forecast period
  10. Western Europe
  11. Western Europe: the use of SMS is in steep decline, largely due to the Facebook ecosystem
  12. Western Europe: operators will remain dominant in voice, but will be strongly challenged by alternative providers
  13. Central and Eastern Europe
  14. Central and Eastern Europe: OTT messaging apps are increasing in popularity and will pose challenges to operators
  15. Central and Eastern Europe: operators are providing indoor and outdoor HD voice coverage and VoIP is gaining traction
  16. Middle East and North Africa
  17. Middle East and North Africa: OTT services will dominate the messaging space and operators are not keen to compete
  18. Middle East and North Africa: legacy voice services will continue to dominate, but VoIP will represent a persistent challenge
  19. Sub-Saharan Africa
  20. Sub-Saharan Africa: social media and messaging services will continue to be important drivers of revenue growth for operators
  21. Sub-Saharan Africa: operators’ revenue from mobile voice will continue to grow, although OTT players will also benefit from the increase in mobile voice adoption
  22. Emerging Asia-Pacific
  23. Emerging Asia-Pacific: Facebook is challenging local players and is set to become the dominant messaging provider in the region
  24. Emerging Asia-Pacific: the roll-out of voice and video features on common communication platforms has made users accustomed to OTT voice services
  25. Developed Asia-Pacific
  26. Developed Asia-Pacific: operators in Japan and South Korea have joined forces to launch RCS under a common brand
  27. Developed Asia-Pacific: operator circuit-switched voice traffic is being substituted by VoLTE and OTT voice services
  28. North America
  29. North America: operators will make use of the residual strength of their messaging proposition to acquire a significant share of the A2P value chain
  30. North America: most voice traffic will come from operator IP services by 2020 due to operators’ investments in new technologies
  31. Latin America
  32. Latin America: SMS traffic has already peaked in the larger markets because traffic has migrated to OTT services; the major operators are committing to RCS
  33. Latin America: traditional voice services are expected to remain dominant during the entire forecast period
  34. Forecast methodology and assumptions
  35. Forecast outputs and definitions
  36. Forecast methodology and assumptions
  37. About the authors

List of Figures

Figure 1: Messages sent, by message type, worldwide, 2012-2019
Figure 2: Messages sent, by message type, and number of OTT messaging active users, worldwide, 2012-2024
Figure 3: OTT messaging users, by device, worldwide, 2012-2024
Figure 4: OTT voice users, by device, worldwide, 2012-2024
Figure 5: Retail revenue for operator mobile voice services, by region, worldwide, 2017-2024
Figure 6: Retail revenue for operator mobile messaging services, by region, worldwide, 2017-2024
Figure 7: Active users of VoLTE services, by region, 2017-2024
Figure 8: Wi-Fi calling traffic and number of service users, worldwide, 2017-2024
Figure 9: Traffic and users for all mobile operator messaging services, worldwide, 2015-2024
Figure 10: Messaging traffic, Western Europe, 2012-2024
Figure 11: Mobile voice traffic, Western Europe, 2012-2024
Figure 12: Messaging traffic, Central and Eastern Europe, 2012-2024
Figure 13: Mobile voice traffic, Central and Eastern Europe, 2012-2024
Figure 14: Messaging traffic, Middle East and North Africa, 2012-2024
Figure 15: Mobile voice traffic, Middle East and North Africa, 2012-2024
Figure 16: Messaging traffic, Sub-Saharan Africa, 2012-2024
Figure 17: Mobile voice traffic, Sub-Saharan Africa, 2012-2024
Figure 18: Messaging traffic, emerging Asia-Pacific, 2012-2024
Figure 19: Mobile voice traffic, emerging Asia-Pacific, 2012-2024
Figure 20: Messaging traffic, developed Asia-Pacific, 2012-2014
Figure 21: Mobile voice traffic, developed Asia-Pacific, 2012-2024
Figure 22: Messaging traffic, North America, 2012-2024
Figure 23: Mobile voice traffic, North America, 2012-2024
Figure 24: Messaging traffic, Latin America, 2012-2024
Figure 25: Mobile voice traffic, Latin America, 2012-2024
Figure 26: Overview of the main forecast outputs
Figure 27: Overview of the forecast methodology used in this report

Note: Product cover images may vary from those shown
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