A Global Recession, Induced by the COVID-19 Pandemic, is Expected to Reduce MD/HD Truck Sales by 28.5% Y-o-Y, with Moderate Recovery in the Latter Half of the Year
In 2019, global heavy-duty truck sales grew strongly in North America and South America and moderately in Europe and China, while declining in India. Currently, the COVID-19 pandemic is causing a wide-scale global supply chain disruption in all industries. The impact will be strongly felt across the US and European MD-HD markets, with a decline in freight demand due to lower industrial production and sharp economic contraction. China and India are expected to recover faster than developed nations on the backdrop of stricter measures and social distancing norms in place to mitigate the pandemic. However, strong stimulus packages with sector-specific incentives will help to reduce the economic impact of the COVID pandemic in different countries.
In the connected trucks market, telematics adoption will decrease, as OEMs’ sales decline and revenue growth stall in many countries at least until the second half of 2020. China will record single-digit growth rates for the first time owing to the COVID-19. The connected trucks section in this study highlights the key global regulations governing this space, installed base across trucks in different regions, regional telematics penetration, and top focus markets for key global telematics service providers.
Alternate powertrain technologies, including natural gas and electric, will be prioritized by major OEMs to mitigate the growing stringency of the upcoming greenhouse gas (GHG) regulations. However, low oil price and revenue impact due to the COVID pandemic will lead to fleets toward the diesel powertrain in the short term. The alternate powertrain section covers key OEM product platforms, use case analysis and market outlook for natural gas, electric trucks, and electric charging infrastructure.
On the autonomous front, Level 4 technology is still at a testing phase. As major OEMs compete to introduce driverless trucks in freight sections such as long haul and port, the market also has several start-ups showcasing their technology capabilities. Although the COVID-19 outbreak has halted many self-driving pilot programs and near-term investments of OEMs, in the long term, it will accelerate innovation in autonomous vehicles to compensate for labor shortages and for sanitizing streets. The autonomous section highlights the global legislative initiatives for the testing of autonomous commercial vehicles (CVs), use case analysis, OEM product platforms, and strategic partnerships among OEMs and suppliers for technology development.
The truck leasing market is witnessing the foray of major leasing companies into xEV leasing in partnership with traditional OEMs as well as new-age electric and fuel cell OEMs to gain an early-mover advantage in electric truck leasing space. With the implementation of IFRS 16, a new financial accounting standard from January 2019, multinational companies reporting under IFRS will account operational leases similar to financial leases. Leasing companies have started offering customers with extensive product portfolios through multiple touchpoints ranging from on-demand truck care to full supply chain services.
Additionally, the study includes sales forecasts for 2020 and trends into 2025 across North America, South America, Europe, China, India, Russia, Next 11, and Rest of the World.
