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Pay-TV Services Worldwide: Trends and Forecasts 2019-2024

  • ID: 5128952
  • Report
  • June 2020
  • Region: Global
  • 29 Pages
  • Analysys Mason
Report Anticipates that IPTV Will Surpass Cable in Terms of the Total Number of Connections Worldwide by 2021 and that it will Become the Most-Popular Access Technology

IP enablement will drive growth in the number of pay-TV connections worldwide; IPTV and operator OTT video will account for 48% of all pay-TV connections by 2024. This report provides an outlook for pay-TV and operator OTT video services over the next 5 years.

This report provides:

  • worldwide forecasts for the number of pay-TV households and services, their retail revenue (spend) and average spend per user (ASPU)
  • forecasts split by pay-TV platform: cable (analogue and digital), IPTV, pay DTT, satellite and operator OTT
  • forecasts for eight regions worldwide.

Key Metrics

  • Pay-TV households and connections
  • Retail revenue (spend)
  • ASPU

All of the above split by the following access technologies:

  • cable (analogue and digital, CATV)
  • IPTV
  • pay digital terrestrial TV (DTT)
  • satellite (DTH)
  • operator OTT

Who Should Read this Report

  • Product and strategy managers within pay-TV providers and operators that require market sizing for business planning purposes, as well as an overview of the key trends that are affecting the market.
  • Business development managers within vendors of video solutions that need to assess the size of the opportunity for their products or services.
  • Financial analysts that need to understand the dynamics and the size of the pay-TV market and its interaction with the OTT video services market.
Note: Product cover images may vary from those shown

Chapter Nos.

7. Worldwide forecasts and regional comparison
8. Worldwide: the COVID-19 pandemic will have a minor, short-term effect on the traditional pay-TV market, but may lead to more cord-cutting in the medium term
9. Worldwide: emerging Asia–Pacific will have the highest IPTV share of traditional pay-TV connections of all regions in 2024, largely due to China
10. Worldwide: growth in operator OTT revenue will not offset the losses in traditional pay-TV services revenue caused by ASPU erosion
11. Worldwide: IP enablement will drive growth in the number of pay-TV connections; IPTV and operator OTT services will account for 48% of payTV connections by 2024
12. Worldwide: traditional pay-TV penetration will fall the fastest in North America, but cord-cutting will also become more prevalent in other regions
13. Regional trends
14. Western Europe: operators will continue to move towards OTT video; operator OTT connections will exceed those from DTH by 2024
15. Western Europe: the number of IPTV and operator OTT service subscriptions will increase, offsetting declines in the number of cable, DTH and pay-DTT subscriptions
16. Western Europe: growth in operator OTT service revenue varies significantly by country, depending on the strength of the competition from third-party OTT players
17. Central and Eastern Europe: retail revenue will grow robustly, despite the  impact of low-priced traditional pay-TV services and widespread piracy
18. Central and Eastern Europe: the number of IPTV connections will grow slightly, but operator OTT video services will account for most of the user base growth
19. Central and Eastern Europe: penetration of operator OTT services will grow rapidly from a small base; Turkey will continue to distort the picture at the regional level
20. Middle East and North Africa: significant ASPU erosion will be counterbalanced by growth in the number of operator OTT and traditional pay-TV subscribers
21. Middle East and North Africa: the number of satellite subscribers has grown despite piracy; the number of IPTV connections will grow the most during the forecast period
22. Middle East and North Africa: the take-up of traditional pay-TV and operator OTT services will be stimulated by declining prices and reduced piracy
23. Sub-Saharan Africa: satellite will continue to account for the vast majority of traditional pay-TV connections due to the limited footprint of wired infrastructure
24. Sub-Saharan Africa: expansions in wireless infrastructure coverage will drive a surge in the number of OTT video users, though only some will use operators’ services
25. Sub-Saharan Africa: the three main traditional pay-TV providers will continue to dominate the market during the forecast period
26. Emerging Asia–Pacific: retail revenue growth for traditional pay-TV services will be dwarfed by the USD14.6 billion growth in OTT video retail revenue
27. Emerging Asia–Pacific: customers will migrate away from cable and satellite and towards IPTV; new pay-TV users will primarily use IPTV
28. Emerging Asia–Pacific: the take-up of traditional pay-TV and operator-OTT services will vary widely by country; ASPU will remain limited by abundant free services
29. Developed Asia–Pacific: operator OTT services will contribute to overall retail revenue growth for pay-TV providers’ services between 2019 and 2024
30. Developed Asia–Pacific: pay-TV providers and operators will offset the decline in the number of cable and satellite subscriptions by gaining IPTV and OTT users
31. Developed Asia–Pacific: operator OTT services will continue to gain subscribers in most markets; South Korean users will favour traditional pay-TV
32. North America: the total revenue from pay-TV services will decline by 21% between 2019 and 2024 due to a large fall in the number of subscribers
33. North America: the number of traditional pay-TV connections will fall by 18 million, only slightly mediated by growth in the number of operator OTT connections
34. North America: the penetration of operator OTT services will grow considerably faster in Canada than in the USA
35. Latin America: total pay-TV revenue will decline by 22% between 2019 and 2024, mainly due to piracy and OTT migration
36. Latin America: growth in the number of operator OTT and IPTV subscribers will not outweigh the strong decline in the number of satellite subscribers until 2023
37. Latin America: pay-TV players’ retail revenue from OTT services will grow, but it will still only account for a small share of their total revenue
38. Forecast methodology and assumptions
39. Our spend forecasts focus on the direct flow of money between consumers and OTT video providers
40. How we classify OTT video services in this forecast
41. Further definitions
42. About the authors

List of Figures
Figure 1: Annual growth in operator retail revenue from TV and video services,by COVID-19 scenario, worldwide, 2019–2020
Figure 2: IPTV share of traditional pay-TV connections and the number ofoperator OTT users as a percentage of the number of households, worldwide byregion, 2024
Figure 3: Traditional pay-TV and OTT retail revenue for operators and pay-TVproviders, worldwide, 2016–2024
Figure 4: Pay-TV retail revenue and CAGR by service type, worldwide, 2019–2024
Figure 5: Pay-TV connections and CAGR by service type, worldwide, 2019–2024
Figure 6: Pay-TV connections and ASPU by access technology, worldwide,2016–2024
Figure 7: The number of traditional pay-TV connections as a percentage of thenumber of households, by region, 2016–2024
Figure 8: The number of operator OTT users as a percentage of the number of households, by region, 2016–2024
Figure 9: Traditional pay-TV and OTT retail revenue for operators and pay-TVproviders, WE, 2016–2024
Figure 10: Pay-TV retail revenue and CAGR by service type, WE, 2019–2024
Figure 11: Pay-TV connections and CAGR by service type, WE, 2019–2024
Figure 12: Pay-TV connections and ASPU by access technology, WE, 2016–2024
Figure 13a: The number of operator OTT users as a percentage of the number of households, WE, 2016–2024
Figure 13b: The number of operator OTT users as a percentage of the numberof households, WE, 2016–2024
Figure 14: Traditional pay-TV and OTT retail revenue for operators and pay-TVproviders, CEE, 2016–2024
Figure 15: Pay-TV retail revenue and CAGR by service type, CEE, 2019–2024
Figure 16: Pay-TV connections and CAGR by service type, CEE, 2019–2024
Figure 17: Pay-TV connections and ASPU by access technology, CEE, 2016–2024
Figure 18a: The number of operator OTT users as a percentage of the number of households, CEE, 2016–2024
Figure 18b: The number of operator OTT users as a percentage of the numberof households, CEE, 2016–2024
Figure 19: Traditional pay-TV and OTT retail revenue for operators and pay-TVproviders, MENA, 2016–2024
Figure 20: Pay-TV retail revenue and CAGR by service type, MENA, 2019–2024
Figure 21: Pay-TV connections and CAGR by service type, MENA, 2019–2024
Figure 22: Pay-TV connections and ASPU by access technology, MENA, 2016–2024
Figure 23: The number of traditional pay-TV connections as a percentage of thenumber of households, MENA, 2016–2024
Figure 24: The number of operator OTT users as a percentage of the number ofhouseholds, MENA, 2016–2024
Figure 25: Traditional pay-TV and OTT retail revenue for operators and pay-TVproviders, SSA, 2016–2024
Figure 26: Pay-TV retail revenue and CAGR by service type, SSA, 2019–2024
Figure 27: Pay-TV connections and CAGR by service type, SSA, 2019–2024
Figure 28: Pay-TV connections and ASPU by access technology, SSA, 2016–2024
Figure 29: Household penetration of pay-TV and operator OTT services, byaccess technology, SSA, 2016–2024
Figure 30: Traditional pay-TV and OTT retail revenue for operators and pay-TVproviders, EMAP, 2016–20242
Figure 31: Pay-TV retail revenue and CAGR by service type, EMAP, 2019–2024
Figure 32: Pay-TV connections and CAGR by service type, EMAP, 2019–2024
Figure 33: Pay-TV connections and ASPU by access technology, EMAP, 2016–2024
Figure 34: The number of traditional pay-TV connections as a percentage of thenumber of households, EMAP, 2016–2024
Figure 35: The number of operator OTT users as a percentage of the number ofhouseholds, EMAP, 2016–2024
Figure 36: Traditional pay-TV and OTT retail revenue for operators and pay-TVproviders, DVAP, 2016–2024
Figure 37: Pay-TV retail revenue and CAGR by service type, DVAP, 2019–2024
Figure 38: Pay-TV connections and CAGR by service type, DVAP, 2019–2024
Figure 39: Pay-TV connections and ASPU by access technology, DVAP, 2016–2024
Figure 40: The number of traditional pay-TV connections as a percentage of thenumber of households, DVAP, 2016–2024
Figure 41: The number of operator OTT users as a percentage of the number ofhouseholds, DVAP, 2016–2024
Figure 42: Traditional pay-TV and OTT retail revenue for operators and pay-TVproviders, NA, 2016–2024
Figure 43: Pay-TV retail revenue and CAGR by service type, NA, 2019–2024
Figure 44: Pay-TV connections and CAGR by service type, NA, 2019–2024
Figure 45: Pay-TV connections and ASPU by access technology, NA, 2016–2024
Figure 46: The number of traditional pay-TV connections as a percentage of thenumber of households, NA, 2016–2024
Figure 47: The number of operator OTT users as a percentage of the number ofhouseholds, NA, 2016–2024
Figure 48: Traditional pay-TV and OTT retail revenue for operators and pay-TVproviders, LATAM, 2016–2024
Figure 49: Pay-TV retail revenue and CAGR by service type, LATAM, 2019–2024
Figure 50: Pay-TV connections and CAGR by service type, LATAM, 2019–2024
Figure 51: Pay-TV connections and ASPU by access technology, LATAM, 2016–2024
Figure 52: The number of operator OTT users as a percentage of the number ofhouseholds, LATAM, 2016–2024
Figure 53: Scope of our spend forecasts

Note: Product cover images may vary from those shown

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