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Optical Networking Equipment Market for 5G: Global & Regional 2020-2029

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    Report

  • 142 Pages
  • November 2020
  • Region: Global
  • Engalco
  • ID: 5130911
Description Jump to:

This report segments data applying to optical networking equipment according to the following protocols: WDM, PON, Carrier Ethernet and SDM. These terms are defined and described in the report. Total addressable markets amount to multi-billion $ total globally. Sales into the Asia-Pacific region form the largest contribution – notably China but also India, Japan and South Korea.

Global market segmentations for 2029 applying to the various protocols are presented in detail. WDM always leads these markets although sales into PON and SDM applications also remain strong throughout the time scale of this report. New-generation PON increasingly dominates the PON space. Optical transceivers are vitally important in this industrial sector and a major performance parameter associated with these products is the maximum bit rate they can handle. Complete details are given in the report. Throughout the forecast period transceivers with maximum capacities ranging from 100 G through 400 G will always remain important. 800 G (also some 1200 G) are now entering this space.

The core of this report comprises nine-year forecasts of all the protocols listed above and these are presented in terms of total addressable market (TAM) values and shipments. The product/market strategies of leading actors across this space are analysed as well as appropriate strategies for optical networking and other firms to better penetrate the 5G fronthaul and backhaul market.

Substantial details are provided concerning 18 communications services providers and 11 supply-side OEMs.

This report includes updates to reflect the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on the market.


Table of Contents

Executive Summary
ES.1 Introductory comments
ES.2 Forecast methodology
ES.3 Protocols (‘ports’)
ES.4 Companies profiled in detail
ES.5 Market data:- TAMs and sales “volumes”
ES.6 Fronthaul and backhaul market segmentation
ES.7 Market data for optical networking transceivers
Section 1 Introduction
1.1 Why yet another ‘G’?
1.2 The emergence of 5G
1.3 5G network slicing
1.4 IoT and IIoT
1.5 Automotive and medical applications
1.6 Frequencies and frequency bands
1.6.1 “sub-6 GHz”
1.6.2 mmWave
1.6.3 Alternative abbreviations
1.6.4 Bit-Rates
1.7 The need for 5G infrastructure
1.8 Rebuilding the mobile infrastructure for 5G: who is it good for?
1.9 Objectives and scope of this report
1.10 Methodology of report
1.11 Forecast methodology
1.12 Plan of this report
Section 2 Optical Network Protocols for 5G
2.1 Introduction
2.2 Wavelength-division multiplexing (WDM)
  • Fronthaul and backhaul networks
2.3 Passive optical networking (PON)
  • Investment rationalization
  • Revenue creation opportunities
  • Fronthaul and backhaul networks
2.4 Carrier Ethernet
2.5 Space-division multiplexing (SDM)
2.6 New generations of optical systems
Section 3 Nine-Year Market Forecast for Optical Networking Equipment into 5G
3.1 Introduction
3.2 Definitions and organization of the data and forecasts
3.2.1 Total markets, TAMs and captive markets
3.2.2 Methodology
3.3 Critiques relating to all the data
3.4 Factors which could upset the TAM data significantly
3.5 Overall (Total) global markets (all types of ports combined)
3.5.1 Presentation of the monetary data
3.5.2 Scenarios underlying the global data
3.5.3 Analysis of the optical networking equipment market data
3.6 Data by Port Types: WDM, PON, Carrier Ethernet and SDM
3.6.1 Overall observations
3.6.2 Presentation of the monetary data for WDM ports
3.6.3 Presentation of the data for WDM ports in volume terms
3.6.4 Presentation of the Global data for WDM ports by ‘xhaul
3.6.5 Presentation of the monetary data for PON ports
3.6.6 Presentation of the data for PON ports in volume terms
3.6.7 Presentation of the Global data for PON ports by ‘xhaul’
3.6.8 Segmentations by Types of PON Port
3.6.9 Presentation of the monetary data for Carrier Ethernet ports
3.6.10 Presentation of the data for Carrier Ethernet ports in volume terms
3.6.11 Presentation of the Global data for Carrier Ethernet ports by ‘xhaul’
3.6.12 Presentation of the monetary data for SDM ports
3.6.13 Presentation of the data for SDM ports in volume terms
3.6.14 Presentation of the Global data for SDM ports by ‘xhaul’
3.6.15 Markets for Optical Networking Transceivers
3.7 Overall Analysis and Summary of all the Data Provided above
Section 4 Communications Services Providers (CSPs)
4.1 Introduction
4.2 Region 1: North America
4.2.1 Overall aspects
4.2.2 AT&T
4.2.2.1 Company profile
4.2.2.2 Suppliers of optical networking equipment
4.2.2.3 Aspects relating to 5G – plans ahead
4.2.3 Charter Communications
4.2.3.1 Company profile
4.2.3.2 Suppliers of optical networking equipment
4.2.4 T-Mobile US
4.2.4.1 Company profile
4.2.4.2 Suppliers of optical networking equipment
4.2.5 Verizon Communications
4.2.5.1 Company profile
4.2.5.2 Suppliers of optical networking equipment
4.3 Region 2: Asia-Pacific
4.3.1 Overall aspects
China
4.3.2 China Mobile
4.3.2.1 Company profile
4.3.2.2 Aspects relating to 5G – plans ahead
4.3.2.3 Suppliers of optical networking equipment
4.3.2.4 Target markets
4.3.3 China Telecom Corporation Ltd.
4.3.3.1 Company profile
4.3.3.2 Suppliers of optical networking equipment
4.3.3.3 Aspects relating to 5G – plans ahead
4.3.3.4 Target 5G markets
4.3.4 China Unicom
4.3.4.1 Company profile
4.3.4.2 Suppliers of optical networking equipment
4.3.4.3 Aspects relating to 5G – plans ahead
4.3.4.4 Target 5G markets
Japan
4.3.5 KDDI
4.3.5.1 Company profile
4.3.5.2 Aspects relating to 5G – plans ahead
4.3.5.3 Suppliers of optical networking equipment
4.3.5.4 Target 5G markets
4.3.6 NTT DoCoMo Inc.
4.3.6.1 Company profile
4.3.6.2 Suppliers of optical networking equipment
4.3.6.3 Aspects relating to 5G – plans ahead
4.3.7 SoftBank
4.3.7.1 Company profile
4.3.7.2 Suppliers of optical networking equipment
4.3.7.3 Aspects relating to 5G – plans ahead
South Korea
4.3.8 KT Corporation
4.3.8.1 Company profile
4.3.8.2 Suppliers of optical networking equipment
4.3.8.3 Aspects relating to 5G – plans ahead
4.3.9 LG Uplus Corp
4.3.9.1 Company profile
4.3.9.2 Suppliers of optical networking equipment
4.3.9.3 Aspects relating to 5G – plans ahead
4.3.9.4 Target 5G markets
4.3.10 SK Telecom
4.3.10.1 Company profile
4.3.10.2 Suppliers of optical networking equipment
4.3.10.3 Aspects relating to 5G – plans ahead
4.3.10.4 Target 5G markets
4.4 Region 3: Europe
4.4.1 Overall aspects
France
4.4.2 Orange
4.4.2.1 Company Profile
4.4.2.2 Suppliers of optical networking equipment
4.4.2.3 Aspects relating to 5G – plans ahead
4.4.2.4 Target 5G markets
Spain
4.4.3 Telefónica
4.4.3.1 Company profile
UK
4.4.4 British Telecom (including EE)(BT Group plc)
4.4.4.1 Company profile of EE
4.4.4.2 Suppliers of optical networking equipment
4.4.4.3 EE’s aspects relating to 5G – plans ahead
4.4.4.4 Target 5G markets
4.4.4.5 Boundless Networks
4.4.5 O2
4.4.5.1 O2 Company profile
4.4.5.2 Suppliers of optical networking equipment
4.4.5.3 Aspects relating to 5G – plans ahead
4.4.5.4 Target 5G markets
4.4.6 Three UK (“3”)
4.4.6.1 Company profile
4.4.6.2 Suppliers of optical networking equipment
4.4.6.3 Aspects relating to 5G – plans ahead
4.4.6.4 Target 5G markets
4.4.7 Vodafone Group plc
4.4.7.1 Company profile
4.4.7.2 Suppliers of optical networking equipment
4.4.7.3 Aspects relating to 5G – plans ahead
4.4.7.4 Vodafone and Open RAN
Section 5 Suppliers of Optical Networking Equipment
5.1 Introduction: Optical Role in the Successor to CPRI
5.2 Challenges to fiber-based 5G infrastructure from mmWave,
  • Microwave and free-space optical (FSO) transmission
5.3 Suppliers of optical networking equipment for 5G Backhaul/
  • Fronthaul: Products and Alliances
5.3.1 Acacia Communications
5.3.2 Adtran, Inc.
5.3.2.1 Company Profile
5.3.2.2 5G-related Products
5.3.2.3 Publisher’s perspective on Adtran
5.3.3 ADVA
5.3.3.1 Company Profile
5.3.3.2 5G-related Products
5.3.3.3 Publisher’s perspective on ADVA
5.3.4 Ciena Corporation
5.3.4.1 Company Profile
5.3.4.2 5G-related Products
5.3.4.3 Ciena’s alliances on 5G
5.3.4.4 Publisher’s perspective on Ciena
5.3.5 Cisco Corporation
5.3.5.1 Company Profile
5.3.5.2 5G-related Products
5.3.5.3 Publisher’s perspective on Cisco
5.3.6 Ericsson (Sweden)
5.3.6.1 Company Profile
5.3.6.2 Ericsson’s 5G Products and Presence
5G Products
  • Presence and 5G Developments
5.3.6.3 Ericsson’s alliances on 5G
5.3.6.4 Publisher perspective on Ericsson
5.3.7 Huawei
5.3.7.1 Company profile
5.3.7.2 5G products
5.3.7.3 Alliances on 5G
5.3.7.4 Publisher’s perspective on Huawei
5.3.8 Infinera
5.3.8.1 Company Profile
5.3.8.2 5G-Related products
5.3.8.3 Alliances on 5G
5.3.8.4 Publisher’s perspective on Infinera
5.3.9 Lumentum
5.3.9.1 Company Profile
5.3.9.2 5G-related Products
5.3.9.3 Publisher’s perspective on Lumentum
5.3.10 NeoPhotonics
5.3.10.1 Company Profile
5.3.10.2 Publisher’s perspective on NeoPhotonics
5.3.11 Nokia Corporation (Finland)
5.3.11.1 Company Profile
5.3.11.2 5G-Related products
5.3.11.3 Nokia’s customers
5.3.11.4 Alliances on 5G
5.3.11.5 Publisher's perspective on Nokia
5.3.12 ZTE Corporation (China)
5.3.12.1 Company Profile
5.3.12.2 5G products
5.3.12.3 Alliances on 5G
5.3.12.4 Publisher’s perspective on ZTE
List of Figures
Figure ES.1 New 5G Subscribers, Annually - Global (M)
Figure ES.2 New 5G Subscribers, Annually - by Region (M)
Figure ES.3 Overall Global TAMs for Optical Networking Equipment ($bn)
Figure ES.4 Overall Regional TAMs for Optical Networking Equipment ($bn)
Figure ES.5 Overall Global TAMs for Optical Networking Equipment into "xhaul" ($bn)
Figure ES.6 Global TAMs for Optical Networking Transceivers by Maximum Bit Rate ($M)
Figure 1.1 Important examples of 5G network slicing
Figure 1.2 New 5G Subscribers, Annually - Global (M)
Figure 1.3 New 5G Subscribers, Annually - by Region (M)
Figure 2.1 MEF's Five Attributes of Carrier Ethernet
Figure 3.1 Total Market, Captive Market and TAM
Figure 3.2 Overall Global TAMs for Optical Networking Equipment ($bn)
Figure 3.3 Overall Regional TAMs for Optical Networking Equipment ($bn)
Figure 3.4 Overall Global TAMs by Backhaul & Fronthaul ($bn)
Figure 3.5 Global TAMs for Optical Networking Equipment - WDM Ports ($bn)
Figure 3.6 Regional TAMs for Optical Networking Equipment - WDM Ports ($M)
Figure 3.7 Global Markets for Optical Networking Equipment - WDM Ports (1,000s of units)
Figure 3.8 Regional Markets for Optical Networking Equipment - WDM Ports (1,000s of units)
Figure 3.9 Global TAMs for Backhaul & Fronthaul – WDM Ports ($M)
Figure 3.10 Global Markets for Backhaul & Fronthaul – WDM Ports (1,000s of units)
Figure 3.11 Global TAMs for Optical Networking Equipment - PON Ports ($M)
Figure 3.12 Regional TAMs for Optical Networking Equipment - PON Ports ($M)
Figure 3.13 Global Markets for Optical Networking Equipment - PON Ports (1,000s of units)
Figure 3.14 Regional Markets for Optical Networking Equipment - PON Ports (1,000s of units)
Figure 3.15 Global TAMs for Backhaul & Fronthaul – PON Ports ($bn)
Figure 3.16 Global Markets for Backhaul & Fronthaul – PON Ports (1,000s of units)
Figure 3.17 Global TAMs by Type of PON Port ($M)
Figure 3.18 Global Markets by Type of PON Port (1,000s of Units)
Figure 3.19 Global TAMs for Optical Networking Equipment – Carrier Ethernet Ports ($M)
Figure 3.20 Regional TAMs for Optical Networking Equipment - Carrier Ethernet Ports ($M)
Figure 3.21 Global Markets for Optical Networking Equipment - Carrier Ethernet Ports (1,000s of units)
Figure 3.22 Regional Markets for Optical Networking Equipment - Carrier Ethernet Ports (1,000s of units)
Figure 3.23 Global TAMs for Backhaul & Fronthaul -  Carrier Ethernet Ports ($M)
Figure 3.24 Global Markets for Backhaul & Fronthaul -  Carrier Ethernet Ports (1,000s of units)
Figure 3.25 Global TAMs for Optical Networking Equipment - SDM Ports ($bn)
Figure 3.26 Regional TAMs for Optical Networking Equipment - SDM Ports ($M)
Figure 3.27 Global Markets for Optical Networking Equipment - SDM Ports (1,000s of units)
Figure 3.28 Regional Markets for Optical Networking Equipment - SDM Ports (1,000s of units)
Figure 3.29 Global TAMs for Backhaul & Fronthaul – SDM Ports ($M)
Figure 3.30 Global Markets for Backhaul & Fronthaul – SDM Ports (1,000s of units)
Figure 3.31 Global TAMs for Optical Networking Transceivers by Maximum Bit Rate ($M)
Figure 3.32 Global Markets for Optical Networking Transceivers by Maximum Bit Rate (1,000s units)
List of Tables
Table 1-1 The main frequency bands available for “sub-6 GHz” 5G
Table 1-2 The main frequency bands available for mmWave FBA (FWA)
Table 1-3 Annual Forecasts for Numbers of Subscribers (Global. M)
Table 1-4 Annual Forecasts for Numbers of Subscribers (Regional. M)
Table 2-1 Optical Transceiver Products
Table 3-1 Changes to the “Surprise-Free” TAM Data Anticipated if a Major Disaster Occurred any Time Over the Period 2020 et seq
Table 3-2 Overall Global TAMs for Optical Networking Equipment ($bn)
Table 3-3 Overall Regional TAMs for Optical Networking Equipment ($bn)
Table 3-4 CAGRs (%) for the Various Regions 2020-2029
Table 3-5 Overall Global TAMs by Backhaul & Fronthaul ($bn)
Table 3-6 Global TAMs for Optical Networking Equipment - WDM Ports ($bn)
Table 3-7 Regional TAMs for Optical Networking Equipment - WDM Ports ($M)
Table 3-8 Global Markets for Optical Networking Equipment - WDM Ports (1,000s of units)
Table 3-9 Regional Markets for Optical Networking Equipment - WDM Ports (1,000s of units)
Table 3-10 Global TAMs for Backhaul & Fronthaul – WDM Ports ($M)
Table 3-11 Global Markets for Backhaul & Fronthaul – WDM Ports (1,000s of units)
Table 3-12 Global TAMs for Optical Networking Equipment - PON Ports ($M)
Table 3-13 Regional TAMs for Optical Networking Equipment - PON Ports ($M)
Table 3-14 Global Markets for Optical Networking Equipment - PON Ports (1,000s of units)
Table 3-15 Regional Markets for Optical Networking Equipment - PON Ports (1,000s of units)
Table 3-16 Global TAMs for Backhaul & Fronthaul – PON Ports ($bn)
Table 3-17 Global Markets for Backhaul & Fronthaul – PON Ports (1,000s of units)
Table 3-18 Global TAMs by Type of PON Port ($M)
Table 3-19 Global Markets by Type of PON Port (1,000s of Units)
Table 3-20 Global TAMs for Optical Networking Equipment – Carrier Ethernet Ports ($M)
Table 3-21 Regional TAMs for Optical Networking Equipment - Carrier Ethernet Ports ($M)
Table 3-22 Global Markets for Optical Networking Equipment - Carrier Ethernet Ports (1,000s of units)
Table 3-23 Regional Markets for Optical Networking Equipment - Carrier Ethernet Ports (1,000s of units)
Table 3-24 Global TAMs for Backhaul & Fronthaul – Carrier Ethernet Ports ($bn)
Table 3-25 Global Markets for Backhaul & Fronthaul – Carrier Ethernet Ports (1,000s of units)
Table 3-26 Global TAMs for Optical Networking Equipment - SDM Ports ($bn)
Table 3-27 Regional TAMs for Optical Networking Equipment - SDM Ports ($M)
Table 3-28 Global Markets for Optical Networking Equipment - SDM Ports (1,000s of units)
Table 3-29 Regional Markets for Optical Networking Equipment - SDM Ports (1,000s of units)
Table 3-30 Global TAMs for Backhaul & Fronthaul – SDM Ports ($M)
Table 3-31 Global Markets for Backhaul & Fronthaul – SDM Ports (1,000s of units)
Table 3-32 Global TAMs for Optical Networking Transceivers by Maximum Bit Rate ($M)
Table 3-33 Global Global Markets for Optical Networking Transceivers by Maximum Bit Rate (1,000s units)
Table 4-1 Basic Format for Main Data Presentation Tables (CSPs)
Table 4-2 Presentation Table for AT&T
Table 4-3 Presentation Table for Charter Communications
Table 4-4 Presentation Table for T-Mobile
Table 4-5 Presentation Table for Verizon
Table 4-6 Presentation Table for China Mobile
Table 4-7 Presentation Table for China Telecom
Table 4-8 Presentation Table for China Unicom
Table 4-9 Presentation Table for KDDI
Table 4-10 Presentation Table for NTT DoCoMo
Table 4-11 Presentation Table for KT Corporation
Table 4-12 Presentation Table for LG Uplus Corp
Table 4-13 Presentation Table for SK Telecom
Table 4-14 Presentation Table for Orange
Table 4-15 Presentation Table for Telefónica
Table 4-16 Presentation Table for BT Group
Table 4-17 Presentation Table for Vodafone
Table 5-1 Presentation Table for Adtran
Table 5-2 Presentation Table for ADVA
Table 5-3 Presentation Table for Ciena
Table 5-4 Presentation Table for Cisco
Table 5-5 Presentation Table for Ericsson
Table 5-6 Presentation Table for Huawei
Table 5-7 Presentation Table for Infinera
Table 5-8 Presentation Table for Nokia
Table 5-9 Presentation Table for ZTE

Executive Summary

The objectives of this five-section report are to identify the business opportunities for the optical networking equipment market segmented by four protocols (‘ports’: WDM, PON, Carrier Ethernet and SDM) as well as fronthaul and backhaul for 5G. Our goal is also to quantify these opportunities in both monetary value (TAM) terms and unit (volume) sales in nine-year forecasts.

This report is focused exclusively on the optical networking equipment itself. Regionally segmented data are also provided. In addition, we briefly examine the prospects for alternatives to fiber optics in the 5G infrastructure. These comprise millimeter and microwave radio and also free space optics.

At the core of this report are nine-year forecasts for the optical networking equipment market. We have also analyzed the product/market strategies of leading actors in this space and have examined appropriate strategies for optical networking and other companies to better penetrate the 5G fronthaul and backhaul market.

The methodology used in the compilation of this report is similar to that used in other reports by the publisher. Both secondary and primary sources were used to compile this report and details are provided within its body. In this report the term “densify” applies to the 5G networks. It is not to be confused with the Canadian software company known as “Densify”.

Many sources provide forecasts of the numbers of subscribers to 5G and these data represent an important driving force toward the development of the underlying networks.

Regional data clearly indicate a surge in Asia Pacific numbers during year 2023, followed by slight decline and then further growth through most remaining years considered here.

Whilst these data are interesting they do not provide significant guidance regarding the markets for optical networking equipment. Such data – representing the core of this report – have been established by means of basic market analysis. It is also very important to appreciate that Enterprise Market opportunities are already of great and strongly growing significance.

This report presents the results of extensive market research concerning the markets for optical networking equipment going into each of four protocols (or ‘ports’). The ‘ports’ considered are:


  • WDM (wavelength-division multiplexing);
  • PON (passive optical networks;
  • Carrier Ethernet;
  • SDM (space-division multiplexing).

In addition, market data are provided for optical networking transceivers, segmented according to maximum bit rate specifications, ranging from 10 G through to 400 G +.

Within this report detailed profiles are provided for most of the important players. The two important overall categories are:


  • Communications Service Providers (CSPs);
  • Optical networking equipment OEMs.

The 18 CSPs profiled are:

AT&T, British Telecom (with a subsidiary known as EE), Charter Communications, China Mobile, China Telecom Corporation Ltd., China Unicom, KDDI Corporation, KT Corporation, LG Uplus, NTT DoCoMo, Orange, SK Telecom, SoftBank, Telefónica (owns O2), Three UK, T-Mobile USA, Inc., Verizon – and Vodafone.

And the 11 optical networking equipment OEMs profiled are:

Acacia Communications, Adtran, ADVA, Ciena, Cisco, Ericsson, Huawei, Infinera, NeoPhotonics, Nokia and ZTE.

Total addressable markets (TAMs) are provided (in US$, generally abbreviated ‘$’) for each year across the time span 2020-2029. Sales volumes are also forecasted for the same years in terms of unit volume sales.

Specific units are generally: for TAMs are either $ (millions or billions of US $, as appropriate), for volumes 1,000s of units.
By adding together all the monetary data the overall global grand totals were determined.
From these data it can be seen that the optical networking equipment needed to support 5G represents a huge market opportunity.

For all the remaining market data we have segmented the markets by geographic region as follows: N. America (Canada and the USA), Europe (all European regional countries), Asia Pacific and “RoW” (rest of the world).

In the Asia Pacific region, the market (TAM) for optical networking equipment grows very strongly over the full forecast period: 2020-2029. The Asia Pacific region is forecasted to always dominate the consumption of optical networking equipment. Across Asia Pacific, in countries such as China, India, Japan and South Korea, governments are investing considerably in expanding 5G technology, which relies heavily on optical networking equipment. China’s $32 billion vision to make the country “wired for 5G technology” has created more demand for this equipment in the Asian region.

Deploying 5G wireless with speeds 10 to 100 times faster than 4G will cost well over $100bn in optical networking equipment alone over the next 5 to 6 years in the US. It is regarded as imperative for US wireless carriers to improve their 5G network infrastructures. Important CSPs include AT&T and Verizon Communications Inc.

The major markets are into WDM, PON and SDM ‘port’ applications. In all these instances annual billion-dollar overall global markets are found.

The strong trends from traditional technologies regarding mobile fronthaul technology enable companies to reduce the deployment and maintenance cost of a 5G network. The increasing adoption of WDM-based fiber fronthaul is driven by the Common Public Radio Interface (CPRI’s) intensive consumption of optical fiber resources, combined with the lower reliability and lack of supervisory measures for managing networks. Next-generation PON is suited to 5G fronthaul applications and is now attracting widespread industry attention.

The additional capacity and speed provided by 5G networks result in increasing stress on mobile backhaul networks. 5G backhaul depends on densification of the network, for example the number of small/macro cells within a given geographical area. Major initiatives in the emerging economies are expected to increase investments in mobile backhaul solutions because there
is a very strong demand for managing old infrastructure and assets.

We also present market data on an annual basis for optical networking transceivers. Maximum bit rate categories considered are 10 G, 100 G, 200 G and “400 G +”. By summer 2020 several OEMs announced products specified to operate at 800 G and above – including some at 1200 G.


Companies Mentioned

  • Acacia Communications
  • Adtran
  • ADVA
  • Ciena
  • Ericsson
  • Furukawa Electric
  • Huawei
  • Infinera
  • Nexans
  • Nokia
  • Sumitomo Electric Lightwave
  • ZTE

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