+353-1-416-8900REST OF WORLD
+44-20-3973-8888REST OF WORLD
1-917-300-0470EAST COAST U.S
1-800-526-8630U.S. (TOLL FREE)

Naviera Armas (Atg) Coronavirused. Brace for Potential Impact.

  • PDF Icon

    Company Profile

  • 356 Pages
  • March 2020
  • Everest Research Group
  • ID: 5131090
Why Read?

  • Price and route comparison across Naviera Armas / Trasmediterranea (ATG) vs competitors Fred Olsen Express and Balearia and vs airlines
  • Coronavirus (COVID-19) impact analysis - updated base, bear and bull case financial projections and liquidity analysis / remaining liquidity levers in COVID-19 world
  • Understand how ATG’s fuel hedging derivatives work and how its hedges and current fuel costs impact the Group’s competitive position in the new COVID-19 world
  • Understand possible restructuring framework under the Spanish Insolvency Act
  • Business analysis - segments, regions, clients, suppliers, substitutes, subsidies
  • Industry overview and competitors analysis
  • Trasmediterranea acquisition analysis
  • Understand EBITDA potential of the business and decomposition of where EBITDA has fallen short vs pro-forma levels (plus synergies) at the time of the Trasmediterranea acquisition
  • IMO 2020 and lower fuel prices impact - customer pricing, scrubbers EBITDA impact, hedging derivatives impact and scrubber financing
  • Valuation - DCF & asset based
  • Understand carve-outs for additional secured debt and what mitigates priming risk
  • Detailed fleet analysis - vessels owned, chartered in and chartered out; charter rates; transactions; valuation and encumbrance
  • Waterfall analysis and expected recovery rates across the capital structure
  • Analysis of the capital structure, legal documentation of each debt instrument and bond pricing

What’s New?

  • COVID-19 impact on ATG - updated base, bear and bull case financial and liquidity projections
  • Detailed port infrastructure analysis - port locations, distance from airports etc.
  • Detailed price and route comparison analysis vs competitors - pricing vs direct competitors and airlines and orphan / monopoly routes
  • Fuel cost hedging deep dive

Questions Answered

  • What is the potential impact of COVID-19 on ATG?
  • How are lower fuel prices affecting ATG and its competitive positioning?
  • Under what circumstances would liquidity break and which additional liquidity levers remain?
  • How does restructuring work under the Spanish Insolvency Act?
  • Will the business be able to deleverage to the extent needed to refinance?
  • What recovery can be expected on the Senior Secured Notes (SSNs)? Business and fleet-based valuations

Table of Contents

  • View, Variant Perception & Recommendations
  • Business Overview
  • Industry Overview
  • Ports
  • Price & Route Comparison & Analysis
  • Industry Regulation – IMO 2020
  • Fuel cost hedging
  • M&A – Trasmediterranea acquisition
  • Historic Financial Analysis
  • Group Structure & Capitalization
  • Trading Update – ER Q319
  • Coronavirus
  • Forecast − Base Case
  • Forecast − Bear Case
  • Forecast − Bull Case
  • Other Valuation Methods
  • Liquidity, Capital Markets And Restructuring
  • Investment Considerations
  • Appendix

Companies Mentioned

  • Naviera Armas
  • Trasmediterranea
  • Fred Olsen
  • Balearia