+353-1-416-8900REST OF WORLD
+44-20-3973-8888REST OF WORLD
1-917-300-0470EAST COAST U.S
1-800-526-8630U.S. (TOLL FREE)

Pro-Gest: Q4 19 - Catalysts Playing Out as Expected.

  • PDF Icon

    Company Profile

  • 101 Pages
  • May 2020
  • Everest Research Group
  • ID: 5131098
Why Read?

  • Understand progress on Mantua plant increased production authorisation and how transformative this is likely to be for Pro-Gest’s Adj EBITDA, FCF, net leverage and liquidity
  • Understand the value opportunity at Pro-Gest vs European container board and corrugated board and packaging peers
  • Understand likely COVID-19 impact on Pro-Gest
  • Understand Pro-Gest’s liquidity trajectory - cash at Cartiere Villa Lagarina vs rest of group; uncommitted working capital facilities; financial assets held; Monza plant sale; proceeds from repayment of (non-consolidated) “intra-group” receivable
  • Understand key drivers in recovery analysis and our base and bear case recoveries and sensitivities

What’s New?

  • Updated financial projections and valuation following Q4 / FY 19 results and COVID-19 development
  • Review of Q4 / FY 2019 results and company updates
  • Timetable of expected events

Questions Answered

  • How tight does liquidity get within FY 20?
  • How are Pro-Gest’s Adj EBITDA, FCF and net leverage likely to evolve across our base and bear cases over FY 20 - FY 23 given the now expected authorisation of its Mantua plant’s permitted production to 400k tonnes per annum?
  • What is the recovery range on Pro-Gest’s 3.25% 2024 senior unsecured bonds across our range of scenarios and sensitivities?
  • What are the key catalysts and dates for these?

Table of Contents

  • View, Variant Perception & Recommendations
  • Business In Detail
  • Working Capital Explained
  • YTD 9m 2019 Performance & Outlook
  • Risks to Investment Thesis
  • Model Assumptions and Valuation
  • Sensitivity Analysis
  • Conclusion

Companies Mentioned

  • Pro-Gest
  • Smurfit Kappa
  • DS Smith
  • Mondi
  • Stora Enso
  • Metsa Board