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RNG Powering the Global Natural Gas Truck and Bus Market, 2020-2030

  • ID: 5134328
  • Report
  • July 2020
  • Region: Global
  • 111 Pages
  • Frost & Sullivan
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Governments to Develop/Expand the Fueling Infrastructure Presents Growth Opportunities

The medium duty (MD) and heavy duty (HD) truck and bus market will show strong recovery globally after a major dip in 2020 due to the COVID-19 crisis which will affect production as well as sales across regions. The crisis will also have a profound effect on the adoption of natural gas (NG) powered truck and buses, with China and Europe witnessing almost a 60% and 50% decline in MD-HD truck sales respectively in 2020. North America (NA) which posted historic high MD-HD truck sales in 2018 and 2019 will also be hit considerably. With China already recovering from the crisis and the push by governments in Europe and NA to revive the economies, it is expected that a positive impact will be felt on the NG market after 2021.

The global NG MD and HD truck market is expected to grow to ~490,000 units in 2030 with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 11.6%. India and South America will be the highest growing markets between 2019 and 2030 with a CAGR of 30.2% and 31.8% respectively.

Stringent emission regulations, volatility in crude oil prices, and technology development which effectively reduce the total cost of ownership (TCO) of NG commercial vehicles (CVs) are some of the key factors driving the adoption of NG as a fuel for these vehicles. Abundance of NG reserves and LNG trade will lead to low prices of NG in Europe and North America. Asia will also benefit as there will be an oversupply of the fuel. In China, NG pricing is transforming from a cost plus pricing approach to market pricing, with the creation of gas spot trade exchanges at Chongqing and Shanghai. Renewable Natural Gas (RNG) produced from a number of sources will be the key to increasing the adoption of NG vehicles. Some countries in Europe are already on the way with more than 90% of the NG vehicles running on RNG. Use of RNG in NG vehicles is expected to increase to almost 50% by 2030.

Compressed Natural Gas (CNG) will be the most preferred type of NG fuel; however, most NG trucks in China run on Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG), which is most profitable for long-haul applications. Spark ignition (SI) technology will boost its market position due to its low cost and wide installation base, thus facilitating future development. High Pressure Direct Ignition (HPDI) technology will also increase its penetration into LNG CI trucks in the long-haul segment.

The NG MD and HD truck & bus market also faces stiff competition from the electric equivalents. MD and HD truck OEMs are making giant strides towards electrification after being slow and reticent in adopting the technology earlier. The adoption of NG powertrains is expected to show high growth rates till 2025, after which it is expected to drop. The global MD and HD bus market faces stiff competition from electric buses, especially in China. With many European and US bus OEMs looking at the electrification route, these regions will also witness slower growth rates during the forecast period.

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1. Executive Summary

  • Executive Summary -  Key Findings
  • Global NG CV Market -  2030 Outlook for Key Regions
  • OEM New Dedicated Platforms -  Powertrain Flexibility Comparison
  • Global NG CV Market Snapshot

2. Research Scope, Objectives, Background, and Methodology

  • Research Scope
  • Research Aims and Objectives
  • Key Questions this Study will Answer
  • Research Background
  • Research Methodology
  • Key OEMs and Suppliers Compared in this Study

3. Definitions and Segmentation

  • Vehicle Segmentation
  • Definitions
  • CV Industry Ecosystem -  Focal Range of This Research Deliverable

4. Market Environment and Dynamics

  • Key Factors Impacting the NG CV Market
  • Legislative Factors -  Analysis
  • Economic Factors -  Analysis
  • Use Case Analysis -  NG Truck
  • Use Case Analysis -  NG Bus

5. Global MD and HD Truck & Bus Market -  Forecast

  • Global MD & HD Truck Market -  Unit Shipment Forecast by Region
  • Global MD & HD Truck Market -  Regional Split
  • Global MD & HD Bus Market -  Unit Shipment Forecast by Region
  • Global MD & HD Bus Market -  Regional Split

6. Global NG Truck & Bus Market -  Forecast

  • Shale Reserves and Production Snapshot
  • Shale Gas and its Impact on NG Adoption
  • NG Trade by Region
  • Global NG Incentives Landscape
  • Growing Prominence of RNG
  • RNG -  Considerable Reductions in Well-to-Wheel Emissions Even Compared to Electric Alternatives
  • RNG as a Transportation Fuel across the Globe
  • NG Price Dynamics
  • NG Price Breakup
  • Diesel–NG Price Differential
  • Global NG CV Market Snapshot
  • Global Regulatory Outlook
  • Global NG Truck & Bus Market -  Key Driving Factors
  • COVID Impact on MD- HD Truck Sales in NA, Europe & China
  • Global NG Truck Market -  Unit Shipment Forecast
  • NG MD-HD Truck Market -  Regional Unit Shipment Split by Fuel Type
  • Global NG Bus Market -  Unit Shipment Forecast
  • MD-HD NG CV Technology Mapping by Region
  • MD-HD Truck Primary Application Technology Mapping
  • NG OEMs and Engine Supplier Activity by Region

7. Regional NG Truck & Bus Market Analysis -  China

  • China -  Key Influencing Trends
  • China -  NG Reserves
  • China -  NG Station Overview
  • China MD-HD NG Truck Market -  Unit Shipment Scenario Analysis
  • China MD-HD Truck Market -  Powertrain Penetration
  • China MD-HD NG Truck Market -  NG Fuel Type and Ignition Technology
  • China MD-HD NG Truck Market -  OEM Product Portfolio
  • China MD–HD NG Bus Market -  Unit Shipment Scenario Analysis
  • China MD-HD Bus Market -  NG Fuel Type and Ignition Technology

8. Regional NG Truck & Bus Market Analysis -  North America

  • NA -  Key Influencing Trends
  • CARB Ultra-low NOx Regulations -  Impact on Powertrains
  • NA MD–HD NG Truck Market -  Unit Shipment Scenario Analysis
  • NA MD-HD Truck Market -  Powertrain Penetration
  • NA MD-HD Truck Market -  NG Fuel Type and Ignition Technology
  • NA MD-HD NG Truck Market -  OEM Product Portfolio
  • NA MD–HD NG Bus Market -  Unit Shipment Scenario Analysis
  • NA MD-HD Bus Market -  NG Fuel Type and Ignition Technology

9. Regional NG Truck & Bus Market Analysis -  Europe

  • Europe -  Key Influencing Trends
  • Europe -  Shale Gas Reserves
  • Europe -  NG Fueling Infrastructure Overview
  • Europe MD–HD NG Truck Market -  Unit Shipment Scenario Analysis
  • Europe MD-HD Truck Market -  Powertrain Penetration
  • Europe MD-HD Truck Market -  NG Fuel Type and Ignition Technology
  • Europe MD-HD NG Truck Market -  OEM Product Portfolio
  • Comparative Analysis of Major European Countries
  • Europe MD–HD NG Bus Market -  Unit Shipment Scenario Analysis
  • Europe MD-HD Bus Market -  NG Fuel Type and Ignition Technology

10. NG CV Market in Other Select Countries

  • Indonesia -  Key Influencing Trends
  • Japan -  Key Influencing Trends
  • Australia -  Key Influencing Trends
  • Russia -  Key Influencing Trends

11. Natural Gas Truck Operational Cost per Mile

  • Operational Cost/Mile Comparison -  Assumptions
  • Diesel, NG, and Electric Truck Weight Benchmark
  • NG Truck -  Price, Fuel, and R&M Breakdown
  • Diesel, NG, and Electric Truck Operational CPM Comparison
  • Operational Cost/ Mile ($/Mile)- Diesel vs. Electric vs. NG

12. Growth Opportunities and Companies to Action

  • Growth Opportunity 1 -  Need to Expand Product Portfolio
  • Strategic Imperatives
  • Key Conclusions and Future Outlook
  • Future Outlook -  2030
  • Legal Disclaimer

13. Appendix

  • Abbreviations and Acronyms Used
  • Learn More -  Next Steps
  • Market Engineering Methodology
  • List of Exhibits
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