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Country Risk Service North Macedonia 3rd Quarter

  • ID: 5135940
  • Country Profile
  • August 2020
  • Region: North Macedonia
  • 26 Pages
  • The Economist Intelligence Unit
Compared with The Economist Intelligence Unit's May 2020 assessment, the sovereign risk rating is unchanged at B, but the score has worsened by 2 points, to 55. The deterioration mainly stems from worsening external financing conditions and a widening fiscal deficit. We forecast that the coronavirus pandemic will cause real GDP to fall by 4.4% in 2020, and North Macedonia entered the current crisis in a weak budgetary position

Compared with our May 2020 assessment, the currency risk rating is unchanged at BB, but the score has worsened by 4 points, to 50. This reflects worsening external financing conditions at the start of the year, which forced North Macedonia to tap into its foreign-exchange reserves to maintain the implicit currency peg with the euro.

The banking sector risk rating is unchanged at B, but the score has worsened by 4 points, to 53. This increase in risk is mainly driven by a deterioration in banks' foreign asset position. A severe recession in 2020 threatens to endanger the stability of the banking sector.
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Country Risk Service North Macedonia 3rd Quarter

Risk assessment
Sovereign risk
Currency risk
Banking sector risk
Political risk
Economic structure risk

Definitions
Sovereign risk
Currency risk
Banking sector risk
Political risk
Economic structure risk
Overall country risk

Sovereign risk
Current assessment
Positive factors
Negative factors
Rating outlook

Currency risk
Current assessment
Positive factors
Negative factors
Rating outlook
Foreign-exchange regime

Banking sector risk
Current assessment
Positive factors
Negative factors
Rating outlook

Generic risks
Political risk assessment
Economic structure risk assessment

Country risk
Overall country risk

Central scenario for 2020-24: Political stability

Central scenario for 2020-24: Election watch

Central scenario for 2020-24: International relations

Central scenario for 2020-24: Policy trends

Central scenario for 2020-24: Fiscal policy

Central scenario for 2020-24: Monetary policy

Central scenario for 2020-24: Economic growth

Central scenario for 2020-24: Inflation

Central scenario for 2020-24: Exchange rates

Central scenario for 2020-24: External sector

Central scenario for 2020-24: External financing requirement

Central scenario for 2020-24: External debt

Key risk indicators

Ratings summary

Quarterly indicators

International assumptions summary

Economic structure

Public finances

Exchange rates, interest rates and prices

Financial sector

Current account

International liquidity

Foreign payment and liquidity indicators

External trade

External financing requirement

External debt stock

External debt service
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