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Nigeria Energy Requirements Forecasted to 2050

  • ID: 5136037
  • Report
  • August 2020
  • Region: Nigeria
  • Weirbridge
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Scope

The scope of this report is the analysis and forecast of energy carriers in Nigeria. Energy is the facilitator of activity. This report focuses on the energy generated from all energy sources in the country, both primary and secondary and quantifies useful energy available for consumption now (2020) and forecasted to 2050.

The various structural changes envisaged in the future such as the decommissioning of back-up generators and the entry of renewables such solar and wind, the emergence of the use of electric vehicles but the ongoing demand for liquid fuels as well as the fall in the demand for coal all form part of the parameters of the scope of the report.

The primary energy carriers of oil, natural gas, coal, hydro-electric and renewables are all analysed as useful energy in the hands of the consumer. Natural gas consumption is combined with the use of oil and coal where it plays the significant role in the generation of electricity The scope outlook is from 2020 to 2050 integrating all end-user energy carrier generation outputs into a coherent energy mix to meet the needs of an increasingly urbanised population and strongly growing economy.

Methodology

The principal methodology used in the report is applying econometric analysis modelling to an extensive database of global and Nigerian time series that include energy, economic, demographic and social indicators.

A global economic outlook and forecast to 2050 is compiled from seven regions which are benchmarked against forecasts from international bodies such as the OECD. The model allows for input by the user who can alter the forecasts to predict different scenarios. The next section deals with the global oil market and specifically with the international oil price. Here again, the user may alter the forecasted oil consumption levels in each of the seven regions. The oil price is forecast based on an ordinary least squares model econometric as outlined in the report.

The Nigerian macroeconomy is dealt with next where an extensive, national accounts forecast table is part of the model (which also allows user input) and is benchmarked to forecasts made by international organisations.

The energy carriers for Nigeria are individually analysed. In the case of oil, a virtual refinery is modelled with the base being the forecasted oil price. A refining margin is added and through the exchange rate petrol and diesel pump prices for Kenya are arrived at. However, the models for petrol and diesel built below both produced poor fits as evidenced by the low adjusted R-squared and hence had inferior predictive abilities. Hence other statistical techniques were used to forecast their values to
2050.

Electricity generation is the sum of the electricity produced by wind, solar, hydro, biomass, coal, oil, gas and back-up generator energy carriers. In the report, all these sources of energy are forecasted using econometric models and other modelling techniques.

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  • Scope
  • Methodology
  • Key Findings
  • World Economic Growth
    • Introduction
    • Corona Virus Shock
    • Impacted Economic Sectors
    • World Economic Growth 2020
  • World Economic Outlook
    • World Economic Drivers
    • Development Economies
    • World Growth Levers
  • Supply and Demand in the World Energy Markets
    • Global Primary Energy Matrix
    • World Oil
    • Sectoral Growth of Energy
    • 2020 Consumption of Energy
    • 2050 Consumption of Energy
    • Oil Price
  • The Nigerian Economy
    • Introduction
    • Corona Virus Pandemic
    • 2020
    • 2021 – 2050
  • Nigeria Energy Matrices
    • Nigeria Primary Energy Matrix
      • Oil
      • Petrol
      • Diesel
      • Electricity
      • Fossil Fuels
      • Renewables
      • 2040
      • Renewable RegulationsF
      • Cost
      • Battery Storage
      • Solar Photovoltaic and Concentrated
      • Wind
    • Electricity Storage
  • Biography Guy McGregor
  • Biography Simon McGregor
  • Glossary

List of Figures
Figure A - Consumption of Electrical Energy 2018 to 2050
Figure 1 - Maslow’s Hierarchy of Needs Triangle
Figure 2 - Forecasts of Global Economic Growth
Figure 3 - Global Economic Growth: Selected Economies
Figure 4 – Nigeria Energy Forecasts 2020 to 2050: Economic Assumptions Table
Figure 5 - World Consumption of Primary Energy 2014 – 2018
Figure 6 - World Consumption of Primary Energy 2020 – 2050
Figure 7 - World Proven Oil Reserves
Figure 8 - Oil Econometric Model Statistics
Figure 9 - Ongoing Consumption of Oil while Price Declines due to Oversupply
Figure 10 - Nigerian Energy Forecasts 2020 to 2050: Oil Consumption Table
Figure 11 - Map Nigeria
Figure 12 - Gross Domestic Product at 2010 Constant Basic Prices
Figure 13 - Nigeria: Expenditure on GDP – 2010 Prices (Naira billions)
Figure 14 - Nigeria: Expenditure on GDP – 2010 Prices (Naira billions)
Figure 15 - Nigerian Economic Growth
Figure 16 - Nigerian Economic Growth closing in on the Population
Figure 17 - World Consumption of Primary Energy
Figure 18 - Position of the size of the Nigerian economy amongst its peers in the world
Figure 19 - Petrol Econometric Model Statistics
Figure 20 - Diesel Econometric Model Statistics
Figure 21 - Domestic Petroleum Product Consumption
Figure 22 - Liquid Fuels Demand
Figure 23 - Fossil Fuel Econometric Model Statistics
Figure 24 - Hydro Econometric Model Statistics
Figure 25 - Electricity Component Generators
Figure 26 - Consumption of Electrical Energy
Figure 27 - Long Term Average of PVOUT
Figure 28 - Distribution of Wind Energy

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