This study evaluates the trajectories of global economic recovery in the aftermath of the pandemic and elucidates the medium-term impact of muted demand and supply on aftermarket revenues for 2020. Taking the long-term view, the study also underscores growth opportunities and evolving business models that, if leveraged on, will aid the aftermarket’s resurgence when the global economy is restored to pre-pandemic levels.
According to this analysis, aftermarket revenue expanded by 4.1% in 2019. This was largely driven by a 3.2% growth in vehicles in operation, with the contraction in global gross domestic product (GDP) growth stifling consumer expenditure on new vehicle purchases. Slowdown in new vehicle sales also meant increased focus on the aftermarket from all stakeholders, more so from the OES channel, to sustain business at the dealer level by offering new vehicle services. This translated into the development of newer partnerships and evolution of newer channels to the market. For 2020, the publisher had initially forecast a 4.0% growth in aftermarket revenues, with India and China leading the growth. The COVID-19 pandemic has put paid to these hopes, and the global automotive aftermarket will have to pull through headwinds that will result in the industry posting a de-growth, ranging between 4.9% and 11.6%, depending on the nature of the ensuing economic recovery across regions.
The study aims to gauge the severity of the impact of the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic on the global automotive aftermarket in 2020.
Although automotive sales had slackened in 2019, resilience from the global vehicle stock was expected to fuel growth opportunities for aftermarket stakeholders in 2020. With disruptions to businesses from fears of contagion snowballing into an economic crisis the world over, the aftermarket will also have to pull through its share of headwinds.
- To ascertain the impact of the COVID 19 pandemic on aftermarket revenues across regions and part categories
- To understand how the aftermarket ecosystem is responding to mitigate the impact of the pandemic on businesses
- To determine the trajectory of post-pandemic recovery across regions and segments
- To highlight the upcoming business models that will see adoption in the wake of the pandemic
Key Issues Addressed
- What are the main factors that will drive and restrain the size of the global automotive aftermarket in 2020?
- How will the virus’ impact on the general macroeconomic performance translate into the global automotive aftermarket business?
- How does the effect of the pandemic on aftermarket performance vary from region to region?
- What is the region-wise outlook for emerging growth opportunities such as digitization and sanitization services against the backdrop of the pandemic?
- Which companies are likely to gain the first-mover advantage in the recovery phase owing to early reorientation in their existing business models?
1. Changing Business and Economic Scenario
- COVID-19 Impact on World GDP Growth
- COVID-19 Impact on Key Regions and Countries
- Economic Stimulus Across Virus Hit Economies
- COVID-19 Impact on Industries
2. Global Automotive Aftermarket Outlook
- 2019 in Numbers - Key Highlights
- 2019 in Trends - Key Highlights
- 2020 in Numbers - Key Predictions
- 2020 in Trends - Key Predictions
- Impact of Covid-19 outbreak on the Global Aftermarket
- Global Light Vehicle in Operation
- Global Aftermarket Revenue Market Size Potential
- Global Aftermarket - Impact Analysis
- Global Automotive Vehicle Parc Average Age
- Average Annual Vehicle Miles Travelled (VMT)
- Global Aftermarket Outlook 2020 Overview
3. Future of Aftermarket
- Key Implications on Automotive Aftermarket
- Stakeholder-level Impact and Opportunity Assessment
- Impact of COVID-19 on Key Demand Influencers
- Key Trends Emerging in the Aftermarket After COVID-19 in the Global Market
- Digital Opportunity Business Model 1: Digital Adoption for Sale of Online Parts and Accessories
- Digital Opportunity Business Model 2: Online Marketplaces
- Digital Opportunity Business Model 3: On-demand Services Open Up Another Digitized Installer Channel
- Health Wellness and Wellbeing Products for IAM
4. Region-wise 2020 Aftermarket Outlook
- 2020 Aftermarket Outlook - North America
- 2020 Aftermarket Outlook - Europe
- Implications of Mot-related Extension (UK)
- 2020 Aftermarket Outlook - Latin America
- 2020 Aftermarket Outlook - India
- 2020 Aftermarket Outlook - China
- Chinese Aftermarket Revival in Motion
5. Growth Opportunities
- Growth Opportunity 1: E-retailing of Replacement Parts and Accessories, 2019
- Growth Opportunity 2: Service Aggregation for Vehicle Repair and Maintenance, 2019
- Growth Opportunity 3: On-demand Vehicle Services Models to Answer Customer Fears Around Contamination Fear in Workshops
- Growth Opportunity 4: Demand for Health Wellness and Wellbeing Parts and Accessories Will Create Niche Product Categories
6. Companies to Action
- 2020 Aftermarket Outlook: Understanding Scenarios
- 2020 Aftermarket Outlook: Factors in Consideration
- Lockdown Details Considered in Demand Estimation Revision
- Impact of Covid-19 on Global Crude Oil Demand
- Fuel Demand and Covid-19 Impact in India
- Exhibit 8: Global Smartphone Penetration - Driver for Aftermarket Digitization
8. Appendix: Growth Pipeline Engine™
- About the Growth Pipeline Engine™
- Next Steps
- List of Exhibits