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Country Risk Service Mauritius 3rd Quarter

  • ID: 5146170
  • Country Profile
  • September 2020
  • Region: Mauritius
  • 27 Pages
  • The Economist Intelligence Unit
Sovereign risk remains BB-rated, despite a 3-point worsening of the score. Income levels are estimated to have declined, owing to restricted economic activity during the lockdown and a prolonged closure of the tourism sector, while the debt service ratio has surged, given plummeting tourism receipts. The external and public debt stocks remain large, and the fiscal deficit will stay wide in 2020-21. There are also additional near-term risks of declining investment flows and risk-aversion towards emerging markets.

Currency risk remains BB-rated, although the score has worsened by 2 points. This reflects currency volatility, owing to a contracting economy and reduced exports. A wide current-account deficit and concerns about plummeting asset prices are exerting downward pressure on the rupee. Foreign direct investment inflows, on which Mauritius depends to meet its financing needs, are declining.

Banking sector risk remains BB-rated, but the score has deteriorated by 3 points. This reflects an increase in the non-performing loans/gross loans ratio and declining income. Declining income levels are expected to pose a risk to asset quality of the banks, but reasonably sound financial supervision supports the rating.
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Country Risk Service Mauritius 3rd Quarter

Risk assessment
Sovereign risk
Currency risk
Banking sector risk
Political risk
Economic structure risk

Definitions
Sovereign risk
Currency risk
Banking sector risk
Political risk
Economic structure risk
Overall country risk

Sovereign risk
Current assessment
Positive factors
Negative factors
Rating outlook

Currency risk
Current assessment
Positive factors
Negative factors
Rating outlook
Foreign-exchange regime

Banking sector risk
Current assessment
Positive factors
Negative factors
Rating outlook

Generic risks
Political risk assessment
Economic structure risk assessment

Country risk
Overall country risk

Central scenario for 2020-24: Political stability

Central scenario for 2020-24: Election watch

Central scenario for 2020-24: International relations

Central scenario for 2020-24: Policy trends

Central scenario for 2020-24: Fiscal policy

Central scenario for 2020-24: Monetary policy

Central scenario for 2020-24: Economic growth

Central scenario for 2020-24: Inflation

Central scenario for 2020-24: Exchange rates

Central scenario for 2020-24: External sector

Central scenario for 2020-24: External financing requirement

Central scenario for 2020-24: External debt

Key risk indicators

Ratings summary

Quarterly indicators

International assumptions summary

Economic structure

Public finances

Exchange rates, interest rates and prices

Financial sector

Current account

International liquidity

Foreign payment and liquidity indicators

External trade

External financing requirement

External debt stock

External debt service
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