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Transitory Trends in the Electric Vehicle Ecosystem in the United States, 2025

  • Report

  • 72 Pages
  • October 2020
  • Region: United States
  • Frost & Sullivan
  • ID: 5182098

Challenges Posed By the Introduction of WLTP and Phasing out of Incentives to Push the Market Towards Self Sustainability

As we move into the new decade, the electric vehicle (EV) industry is likely to experience total sales of over 2.5 million units (including battery electric vehicles (BEVs) and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs). Majority of the US OEMs are likely to reduce PHEV models and introduce BEV models in their product lines. Over 450 models-300 BEVs and 150 PHEVs-will be available for sale in 2020. The xEV market in the United States is likely to reach 6.9 million units by 2025. 2019 observed a decline in year-on-year (y-o-y) growth (at -11%), for only the second time after 2014, as Tesla and Nissan exhausted their incentive quota.

The US market experienced positive growth in 2016 after declining for 3 years in a row. As OEMs launch more long-range (200 miles+) EVs, EVCS service providers look for a commercial and domestic version of CCS fast charging similar to Tesla’s charging technology. As CCS+ charging becomes more prominent, EVCS will undergo significant changes in terms of output capacity, hardware, power electronics, and temperature management. Tesla Model 3 was the highest-selling vehicle globally and in the United States, with total sales of 145,515 units and accounting for over 45.7% of the market share. As an OEM, Tesla held a 55.6% share of the total EVs sold in the country.

HEV market experienced significant growth of 54% with total sales of 766,918 units in 2019. MHEVs, introduced in 2018, accounted for 48% of the total HEV sales in 2019. 48V MHEVs dominated, with a 75% share of the total MHEV sales. There are approximately 56 EV (19 BEVs, 34 PHEVs, and 3 FCEVs) and 94 HEV (69 FHEVs and 25 MHEVs) models available for sale in the United States. Over 78,500 charging stations have been installed. Of these, 64,000 are AC charging stations and 14,500 DC charging stations, with a mix of CCS, Chademo, and Tesla stations.

Coronavirus 2019 (COVID-19) will have an adverse effect on the overall automotive industry but not on EVs as we estimate sales to increase by about 22% in 2020 as compared to 2019. California has the most densely populated charging station infrastructure, which has allowed it to be the biggest market for EVs in the country. Charging stations will be installed in strategic locations with multiple points of interest for consumers to engage with. Hotel/Lodging is currently the most favored location followed by shopping centers.

Table of Contents

1. Executive Summary
  • Key Highlights
  • Historical Passenger Electric Vehicle (PEV) Sales, 2010-2018
  • Historical HEV Sales, 2010-2019
  • xEV Sales Forecast by EV Type - 2019-2025
  • United States - Incentives and Subsidies
  • AC Level 2+ Charging - The Future of AC Fast Charging
  • DC Fast Charging - CCS to CCS+

2. Research Scope, Objectives, and Methodology
  • Research Scope
  • Research Aims and Objectives
  • Key Questions This Study Will Answer
  • Research Methodology
  • Product Segmentation - Electric Propulsion Technology

3. Electric Vehicle Market Scenario
  • Key Highlights
  • Historical PEV Sales, 2010-2018
  • 2019 Market Snapshot - United States
  • EV Sales by Model
  • Sales Forecast by EV Type - 2019-2025

4. Hybrid Electric Vehicle Market Scenario
  • Key Highlights
  • Historical HEV Sales, 2010-2019
  • 2019 HEV Market Snapshot - United States
  • HEV Sales by Model
  • HEV Sales Forecast by EV Type - 2019-2025

5. Government Incentives and Subsidies
  • United States - Incentives and Subsidies
  • Incentives
  • Incentive Tracker - United States
  • Incentives to Drive EV Ownership
  • Cash Rebates in the Private Sector
  • Cash Rebates for EVs
  • Limited-Time Incentives
  • EVs Exempt From Emission Norms
  • Minnesota - Push by the Private Sector
  • Vehicle Weight Limit Restrictions
  • Traffic Management through Incentives
  • Oregon - Incentives For Dedicated EV OEMs
  • Utah Leads Texas In-State Incentives
  • Significant Monetary Incentives In Washington
  • California is the Most EV Friendly State
  • California Private Sector
  • EV Sales by State

6. Electric Vehicle Charging Infrastructure
  • EV Charging Trend - United States
  • AC Level 2+ Charging - The Future of AC Fast Charging
  • DC Fast Charging - CCS to CCS+
  • Current Charging Station Installations - United States
  • EV Charging Stations By Owner Type
  • Charging Station Units Forecast - United States

7. Growth Opportunities and Companies to Action
  • Growth Opportunity - Social Collaboration
  • Strategic Imperatives

8. Key Conclusions
  • Legal Disclaimer

9. Appendix
  • Abbreviations and Acronyms Used
  • Market Engineering Methodology
  • List of Exhibits

Companies Mentioned

A selection of companies mentioned in this report includes:

  • Nissan
  • Tesla