North American Technology Benchmarking for OE Compliance for Fuel Economy, Growth Opportunity

Regulations Must Stabilize to Allow Effective Technology Strategies among OEMs for Improved Fuel Economy and Emissions

The predominant driver of change in the automotive powertrain industry, and the need of the hour, is emissions reduction. Despite the social interest in powertrain electrification, the internal combustion engine (ICE) will remain the leading powertrain for at least 2 decades. Nonetheless, this primary propulsion unit offers scope for improvement, making it essential that technologies are evaluated and applied to boost fuel economy and emissions reduction, especially in North America, one of the world’s largest markets, where engine displacement and CO2 emissions remain high.

While the Obama-era EPA norms were intended to increase fuel economy mpg and reduce emissions, increasing adoption of sport utility vehicles (SUVs) and crossover utility vehicles (CUVs), which have a large footprint and thus lower mpg and higher emission levels, has proven counter-productive. Moreover, with the Trump Administration’s rollback of Obama-era fuel economy and emissions regulations, the more lenient Safer Affordable Fuel-Efficient (SAFE) rules have placed the North American automotive industry is in a state of flux from a fuel economy and emissions perspective.

Where the previous targets were certainly tough and had original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) requesting a reduction, the near-freezing of regulations has created a massive difference between the SAFE and California Air Resources Board (CARB) expectations, essentially asking OEMs to meet 2 different targets in the United States.

Despite the instability in regulations slowing technology adoption and the need for electrification, such as battery electric vehicles (BEVs) or plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs), the role of conventional IC engine technologies is still pivotal for improving overall fuel economy in the North American automotive market.

Given these circumstances, this study explores technologies that do not offer major electrification but are used in conjunction with conventional IC engines, their impact on overall fuel economy/emissions, and their associated costs. Additionally, with each OEM having its own technology profile, this study identifies the overall market penetration of these technologies based on OEM preferences. The study period is 2018 to 2030.

Key Issues Addressed

• What are the regulations and market dynamics that demand an improvement in overall fuel economy?
• What different technologies are available?
• What is the cost/benefit ratio of these technologies?
• What preferences do OEMs have in adopting these technologies, and what is their outlook for the future?
• How will technologies evolve in the next decade among different OEMs?