Truck OEM Strategies for GHG/CO2 Regulation Compliance, 2020-2030

Propulsion Alternatives to Diesel will Emerge in the Medium Term (2024-2027); the Outlook for Aerodynamics and Advanced Diesel Combustion Technologies is Strong

Greenhouse gas/fuel efficiency regulations in TRIAD countries and increasingly stringent tailpipe emission standards in developing countries will shape OEM powertrain strategies over the next decade. This research service provides an overview of key future fuel efficiency and tailpipe emission regulations across different regions for heavy-duty commercial vehicles. At present, North America is adopting GHG regulations, after which it will focus on ultra NOx regulations (medium-term). Europe has developed a tool for CO2 monitoring and will soon implement GHG regulations. India planned to make the shift from BS-IV to BS-VI (equivalent to the Euro VI) by 2020; the country’s fuel efficiency regulations have been in place since 2018. China will shift to China VI in 2 phases-2020 and 2023; Phase 3 fuel efficiency regulations will be implemented in 2023.

These regulations will augment the penetration of advanced aerodynamics, low rolling resistance tires, auxiliary electrification, lightweighting, and advanced diesel engine technologies such as advanced turbochargers, automated manual transmission, advanced after-treatment systems, and electrification.

Stringent emission regulations and government incentives are encouraging industry participants to explore advanced ICE engine concepts, energy recovery systems, and auxiliary electrification, including APU for operation on HVAC during vehicle standstill. The decoupling of auxiliary loads such as pumps for fuel injection and power steering, engine oil circulation, and air conditioning can reduce fuel consumption.

Energy recovery systems include waste heat recovery systems based on organic Rankine cycles and regenerative braking systems in hybrid vehicles with the potential to improve the efficiency of diesel engines. Advanced combustion strategies combined with high-efficiency transmission, advanced aerodynamics, advanced driver assistance systems, auxiliary electrification, and low rolling resistance tires will also improve fuel efficiency.

North American OEMs have commercialized most technological advancements from the SuperTruck I program, and a strong push for electrification across major OEMs and EV start-ups is being observed. Horizon 2020, the EU’s Research and Innovation program, allocates funds for green transport technologies. European OEMs are shifting to vertically integrated engines and transmission with proprietary turbochargers, and these facilitate precise control over vehicle drivetrain. As part of powertrain diversification, OEMs are focusing on proprietary natural gas engines and EV platforms. Chinese OEMs are leveraging technology partnerships with European OEMs and engine research institutes to upgrade diesel engines to meet upcoming regulations. The transition from low-cost to value and premium trucks will drive technology changes. In addition, government incentives are driving rapid progress in electrification across different Chinese OEMs. Indian OEMs are adopting a two-pronged approach by improving in-house engine platforms and sourcing advanced diesel engine technologies from Tier I engine suppliers, Japanese OEMs, and European engine research institutes.