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Global Economic Recovery in Post-Pandemic 2021

  • Report

  • 117 Pages
  • March 2021
  • Region: Global
  • Frost & Sullivan
  • ID: 5311231

5.3% Global Growth Expected for 2021, with China and India to See Growth of 8% or More

2020 was, without a doubt, an extremely turbulent year for the global economy, with lockdowns, sharp trade contraction, accelerated job losses, and supply-chain disruptions. Recovery started picking up towards the second half of the year with the easing of COVID-19 restrictions. The global economy nonetheless experienced a very deep 2020 recession.

Recovery will be the keyword going into 2021, in the light of continued easing up of restrictions, vaccine administration, and demand-side revival. Global growth is expected to accelerate to 5.3% in 2021. The pace of recovery is expected to be much stronger for the group of emerging markets and developed economies, especially supported by high growth rates for China and India.

This research captures the 2021 global economic outlook, focussing on visioning scenarios, growth projections, policy developments, and risks to watch out for. The global economy is most likely, for example, to see a U-curve recovery into 2021. If however, downside risks materialize, there remains the chance of a double-dip recession or a W-curve recovery process. Following a sharp contraction in Q2 2020 GDP growth amidst lockdowns, an associated strong rebound in growth figures is expected for Q2 2021.

Oil prices should accelerate in 2021, although remaining below 2019 levels. The finalization of a UK-EU Brexit deal has provided much relief to the European economy, although some Brexit-related disruptions will persist in H1 2021. On the policy front, there have been major policy shifts in the US following the new US Presidency. The US, for example, is expected to primarily support clean energy policies, in the future.

The research features separate regional economic outlook sections focusing on country-specific GDP growth rates, growth opportunities, and key economic developments. The US for example should see 4.4% growth in 2021, especially supported by a recent stimulus push and new stimulus package expectations. European economies continue to face pressure from re-imposed restrictions. China should see 8.0% growth for 2021, while India will see its 2021-2022 fiscal year growth accelerating to 10.9%. 2021 growth rates are reflective of the low GDP base effect from 2020 to an extent.

Key Issues Addressed


  • What are the top 5 global economic predictions for 2021?
  • What is the global growth outlook under baseline, optimistic, and pessimistic scenarios?
  • What are some of the key drivers and restraints for the global economy in 2021?
  • How will major economies such as the US, UK, and India perform?
  • What are the top growth opportunities to watch out for, by region?
  • What is expected of Brexit in 2021?
  • What are the economic implications of the shift in US presidency?
  • How will trade and supply-chain shifts and developments impact the global economy?
  • What is the outlook for Europe given re-imposed restrictions?
  • When is global GDP expected to return to pre-pandemic levels?

Table of Contents

1. Executive Summary - 2021 Global Economic Outlook
  • Top 5 2020 Global Economic Highlights
  • 2020 Global Economy - Actuals vs. Forecast
  • 2008-2020 Global Historic GDP Growth
  • Top 5 2021 Global Economic Predictions
  • 2021 Scenario Analysis - Quarterly Global Growth
  • 2021 Scenario Analysis - Assumptions
  • 2021 World GDP Growth Snapshot
  • Advanced Economies - Key Predictions for 2021
  • Emerging Economies - Key Predictions for 2021
  • 2021 Growth Opportunities - Top 3 Opportunities by Region
  • 2021 Regional Trends - GDP Growth, Risks, and Policy Direction


2. Research Scope and Assumptions
  • 2021 Global Economy - Scope of Analysis
  • Forecast Assumptions - Global Economy


3. Growth Environment
  • Why is it Increasingly Difficult to Grow?
  • The Strategic Imperative 8™
  • The Impact of the Top Three Strategic Imperatives on the Global Economy
  • Growth Opportunities Fuel the Growth Pipeline Engine™
  • Key Economic Metrics for North America - US and Canada
  • Key Economic Metrics for Latin America - Brazil and Mexico
  • Key Economic Metrics for Latin America - Colombia and Panama
  • Key Economic Metrics for Latin America - Argentina
  • Key Economic Metrics for Europe - UK and Germany
  • Key Economic Metrics for Europe - France and Spain
  • Key Economic Metrics for Middle East - Saudi Arabia and Iran
  • Key Economic Metrics for Middle East - Qatar and Turkey
  • Key Economic Metrics for Africa - Tanzania and Kenya
  • Key Economic Metrics for Africa - Egypt and Nigeria
  • Key Economic Metrics for Africa - South Africa
  • Key Economic Metrics for Asia-Pacific - China and India
  • Key Economic Metrics for Asia-Pacific - Japan and Indonesia
  • Key Economic Metrics for Asia-Pacific - Australia
  • Growth Drivers for the Global Economy
  • Growth Restraints to the Global Economy


4. 2021 Global Economic Outlook
  • 2021 Annual Global Growth
  • 2021 Scenario Analysis - Quarterly Global Growth
  • 2021 Scenario Analysis - Assumptions
  • 2021 Oil Price, Supply, and Demand Outlook
  • 2021 Monetary Policy Outlook


5. North America Economic Outlook 2021
  • North America - Top 3 Growth Opportunities
  • North America - GDP Growth
  • US and Canada - GDP Growth Outlook
  • US and Canada - Economic Outlook Analysis
  • North America - Key Economic Developments


6. Latin America Economic Outlook 2021
  • Latin America - Top 3 Growth Opportunities
  • Latin America - GDP Growth
  • Brazil and Mexico - GDP Growth Outlook
  • Brazil and Mexico - Economic Outlook Analysis
  • Colombia and Panama - GDP Growth Outlook
  • Colombia and Panama - Economic Outlook Analysis
  • Argentina - Economic Outlook Analysis
  • Latin America - Key Economic Developments
  • 2021 Latin America Economic Outlook - Top Predictions


7. Europe Economic Outlook 2021
  • Europe - Top 3 Growth Opportunities
  • Europe - GDP Growth
  • UK and Germany - GDP Growth Outlook
  • UK and Germany - Economic Outlook Analysis
  • France and Spain - GDP Growth Outlook
  • France and Spain - Economic Outlook Analysis
  • Europe - Key Economic Developments


8. Middle East Economic Outlook 2021
  • Middle East - Top 3 Growth Opportunities
  • Middle East - GDP Growth
  • Saudi Arabia and Iran - GDP Growth Outlook
  • Saudi Arabia and Iran - Economic Outlook Analysis
  • Qatar and Turkey - GDP Growth Outlook
  • Qatar and Turkey - Economic Outlook Analysis
  • Middle East - Key Economic Developments
  • 2021 Middle East Economic Outlook - Top Predictions


9. Africa Economic Outlook 2021
  • Africa - Top 3 Growth Opportunities
  • Africa - GDP Growth
  • Tanzania and Kenya - GDP Growth Outlook
  • Tanzania and Kenya - Economic Outlook Analysis
  • Egypt and Nigeria - GDP Growth Outlook
  • Egypt and Nigeria - Economic Outlook Analysis
  • South Africa - Economic Outlook Analysis
  • Africa - Key Economic Developments
  • 2021 Africa Economic Outlook - Top Predictions


10. Asia-Pacific Economic Outlook 2021
  • Asia-Pacific - Top 3 Growth Opportunities
  • Asia-Pacific - GDP Growth
  • China and India - GDP Growth Outlook
  • China and India - Economic Outlook Analysis
  • Japan and Indonesia - GDP Growth Outlook
  • Japan and Indonesia - Economic Outlook Analysis
  • Australia - Economic Outlook Analysis
  • Asia-Pacific - Key Economic Developments
  • 2021 Asia-Pacific Economic Outlook - Top Predictions


11. Growth Opportunity Universe - Global Economy, 2021
  • Growth Opportunity 1: Manufacturing Gains from Trade and Supply Chain Shifts
  • Growth Opportunity 2: Demand Revival from Easing Restrictions and New Stimulus
  • Growth Opportunity 3: Oil Recovery and Accelerated Economic Diversification


12. Key Conclusions
  • List of Exhibits
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