In 2020, shipments of global electric vehicles (note: EVs, by our definition include BEVs and PHEVs, but exclude HEVs and FCVs) grew by 47% to 3.3mn units, after growing by 32% over 2015-19. These figures were positively surprising amid the global auto shipment decline of 13% to78.8mn units in 2020, with EV market share (of total auto shipments) of 4.1%. In 2021F, we forecast global EV shipments to rise by 54% to 5.0mn units, implying a 5.7% EV market share, with Europe/China/US representing 43%/35%/11% share of EVs globally. For 2025F/30F, our global auto team forecasts EV shipments of 12.3mn/23.9mn globally. Our EV estimates translate into EV battery demand estimate of 251GWh in 2021F (2020: 140GWh), implying 79% growth y-y. For 2025F/30F, we forecast EV battery demand of 717GWh/1,534 GWh, likely posting 27% growth in 2020-30F.
In 2020, China's lithium battery shipments will be 143GWh, up 22% year-on-year. It is estimated that China's lithium battery market shipments will reach 615GWh in 2025 and the compound annual growth rate will exceed 25% from 2021 to 2025. From the specific application fields, new energy vehicles, 3C digital fields, energy storage, small power and electric tools are the main downstream application markets of lithium batteries.
In 2020, China's vehicle power battery shipments will be 80GWh, up 12.7% year-on-year, accounting for 56% of China's lithium battery market, far exceeding other application terminals. Specific to the product shape, the proportion of square battery shipments increased from 57.5% in 2017 to 80.8% in 2020. The direct reason is that the concentration of the domestic power battery market has further increased in the past three years, and the proportion of TOP3 has increased from 2017. 51.2% increased to 83.1% in 2020, while TOP3(CATL, BYD, Guoxuan) mainly used square power batteries.
Cylindrical batteries accounted for 9.7%, an increase of 2.4 percentage points over the previous year. The proportion of cylindrical power battery shipments increased, mainly due to the significant increase in sales of domestic Tesla model 3 and other models, which led to the increase in domestic power battery shipments of LG and Panasonic. It is predicted that in the next few years, driven by Tesla's 4680 cylinder effect, the proportion of cylinders in the field of power batteries is expected to continue to increase.
1. General Overview
1.2 Mainstream Technologies
1.3 Industry Chain
3. Li-ion Power Battery Industry Chain
3.2 Key Materials
3.2.1 Cathode Materials
3.2.2 Anode Materials
4. Global New Energy Vehicle Market
4.1 Global Market
4.2 Chinese Market
5. Global Li-ion Power Battery Industry
5.1 Global Li-ion Power Battery Market
5.1.3 Market Size
5.1.5 Supporting Relationship
5.2 Chinese Li-ion Power Battery Market
5.2.3 Market Size
5.2.4 Supporting Relationship
6 Depth Analysis of Domestic Peers
7 Industry Development Trends
- Tianjin Lishen
- Wanxiang Group
- China Aviation Lithium Battery (CALB)
- Guoxuan High-tech
- Microvast Power Systems