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Global and China Lidar Market Insight Report, 2021-2025

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  • 144 Pages
  • April 2021
  • Region: China, Global
  • AEI Research
  • ID: 5359654
At present, the mainstream sensing sensors have their own performance limitations. From the technical performance dimension, lidar is the optimal solution of sensing hardware, and intelligentization is a track with extremely significant consumption attributes, which is significant in improving the driving experience of consumers (mainly ADAS). Intelligentization includes three links: sensing, decision-making and control, and lidar is the core sensor at the sensing level. In addition, carrying laser radar is also the core of making up software algorithm to realize curve catching-up at the intelligent level of the main engine factory except Tesla.

Market space: under the hardware embedded strategy, lidar will accelerate loading at L3 and above. The global market scale will be 48.3/120.6 billion yuan in 2025/ 2030, and the CAGR is expected to be over 80% in the next decade. Intelligent driving is a technological upgrade of automobile industry. The L2 penetration rate of new cars in China is 15% in 2020, the target penetration rate of L2+L2+L3 2025/2030 is 50%/70%, and the target penetration rate of L4 in 2030 is 70%. At present, the intelligent upgrade of mainstream manufacturers has entered the stage of equipment competition with embedded hardware, and the hardware system with the capability of upgrading to L4/L5 has been accelerated to be loaded in subsequent new cars. Lidar is the fastest growing sub-field of new hardware. In 2021/2025/2030, the global market scale was RMB 5/483/120.6 billion, and the CAGR80% was over 80% in ten years.

Technical route: It is expected that the short-term and medium-term mixed solids will dominate, and the penetration of pure solid OPA will increase in the long term. The layout and advantages of each participant are different. Considering the mass production cost, vehicle specifications and product size, we expect that the subsequent mass production of lidar will be mainly semi-solid in the short and medium term, and the penetration rate of pure solid OPA will increase in the long term. At present, the layout and advantages of market participants are different: mechanical Velodyne is the absolute leader, and Hesai has strong competitive strength; In terms of hybrid solid-state mirror, Valeo was first mass-produced (Scala jointly developed with Ibeo), and DJI and Innovusion will soon be mass-produced; Luminar is the absolute leader in hybrid solid-state MEMS, and its technology maturity and customer accumulation are in the leading position. Innoviz and Aeva also have certain advantages by virtue of the advantages of cost and FMCW solution; Ibeo in solid-state Flash is mass-produced, and solid-state OPA is a long-term solution. Quanergy has accumulated a lot and is still being optimized. Aeva is a representative company in FMCW scheme.

Future trend: from the introduction period to the growth period, we believe that the team, technology, customers and funds become the winners and losers in the competition. At present, the on-board lidar has gradually entered the growth stage from the lead-in period, with great uncertainty. In the future, the ability of team backbone, the selection and research and development of technical route, the development of mass production customers and the ability of financing support will influence the competition pattern of lidar in the growth stage. From the current point of view: 1) From the team perspective, the core teams of current market participants all have strong optoelectronic technology background; 2) From a technical point of view, each player has different routes and reserves. At present, luminar is leading in the field of mixed solids; 3) From the customer's point of view, Luminar, Innoviz, Ibeo, Sagitar, Velodyne and Aeva are leading in supporting and cooperating with OEM; 4) In terms of capital, Velodyne and Luminar, which are the first to be listed, and Hessai, Innoviz and Aeva, which will be listed soon, have accumulated financing of several billion RMB, which are in a leading position in terms of capital reserve.

Table of Contents

1 Overview: The core sensing component of intelligent driving is driven by both supply and demand
1.1 What is lidar?
1.2 Industry driving factors: demand drag, supply innovation, and high-level intelligent driving to accelerate penetration
1.2.1 short-term dimension: demand drag, supply innovation
1.2.2 Long-term dimension: the penetration rate of high-level automatic driving gradually increases
2 spatial pattern analysis: it is estimated that the world is about 20 billion US dollars, and there are more machinery and semi-solid manufacturers
2.1 market space: it is estimated that the global space in 25/30 years will be USD 12.9/19.5 billion
2.2 Pattern analysis: There are many mechanical and semi-solid manufacturers in the current layout, and there are technology giants entering the industry
3. Discussion on technical trend: laser radar is essential, and semi-solid and solid are the trends
3.1 Dimension of technical scheme: Do you use laser radar?
3.1.1 What are the plans?
3.1.2 Tesla: Adopt the vision-oriented scheme without laser radar
3.1.3 Tesla adopts visual solution: the business model of "software service provider" needs low-cost shop in the early stage
3.2 Product shape dimension: What laser radar is used?
3.2.1 Mechanical laser radar: high precision and high cost, unable to pass the vehicle regulations
3.2.2 Semi-solid-rotating mirror scheme: the current mainstream ADAS scene technical route has passed the vehicle specifications
3.2.3 Semi-solid -MEMS vibrating mirror scheme: It is expected to pass the vehicle regulations in the later stage, and the cost reduction potential is great
3.2.4 Pure solid-state OPA scheme: Pure solid-state scheme with the highest technical barriers
3.2.5 Pure solid-state Flash scheme: a highly integrated scheme for instantly forming environmental images
3.3 Cost Reduction Path Analysis
3.3.1 Mechanical Cost Disassembly and Cost Reduction Path
3.3.2 Semi-solid Cost Disassembly and Cost Reduction Path
3.3.3 pure solid state cost disassembly and cost reduction path
4. Depth analysis of domestic players
DJI Livox
Leishen Intelligent Systems
Wanji Technology
GeniusPros Technologies
Selected Charts
The role of lidar in sensing layer
Composition of lidar system
Cloud image of Velodyne lidar scanning point
From 2020 to 2021, downstream car companies began to use lidar
R&D expense rate of listed companies related to lidar
Global listing of lidar companies
Sorting out the major global lidar companies
Penetration Prediction of Autopilot Systems at Different Levels in China
Automatic driving level and corresponding number of sensors
Autopilot application scenario VS autopilot level
Autopilot application level VS sensor
Spatial prediction of global lidar market
Spatial prediction of domestic lidar market
The proportion of lidar downstream application scenarios
Enterprises in various industrial chains of vehicle-mounted lidar
Overview of lidar manufacturers' technical route
Comparison of Advantages and Disadvantages of Autopilot Sensors
Comparison of core parameters of various sensing sensors
Number of main sensors of Tesla body
Tesla Perceptual Sensor Layout
Tesla Perception Layer Technology Stack
Comparison of chip parameters of mainstream manufacturers
Iteration history of Tesla chip
Comparison of Environmental Awareness Solutions for Autopilot
Summary of lidar technical scheme
Semi-solid MEMS galvanometer scheme
OPA solid-state lidar scheme
Flash solid-state lidar scheme
Mass production of lidar technical scheme
Development Roadmap of Vehicle Lidar
Sales ratio of solid state/mechanical lidar from 2025 to 2030
Sales ratio of solid state/mechanical lidar from 2025 to 2030

Companies Mentioned

  • RoboSense
  • DJI Livox
  • Huawei
  • Leishen Intelligent Systems
  • Benewake
  • Zvision
  • Wanji Technology
  • SureStar
  • Litra
  • Lorentech
  • Richbeam
  • Tanway
  • GeniusPros Technologies