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US Food Market Outlook 2023: Inflation, Sustainability, Convenience, & Other Food Trends

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    Report

  • 245 Pages
  • July 2023
  • Region: United States
  • Packaged Facts
  • ID: 5394056

Report Overview

Most major packaged food categories are mature and rely primarily on population growth, leaving food marketers with the challenge of bringing something new to the table. Opportunities abound for companies that invest in new product launches, ingredient changes, and different marketing tactics to appeal to changing consumer preferences. Some trends in 2023 - like inflation - are continuations of 2022 issues while others - like sustainability - are trends that are resurfacing in a bigger way again after having taking a back seat to other concerns in the height of the pandemic.

Inflation-fueled higher prices are a core trend from 2022 that is continuing in 2023, as supply challenges, higher ingredient and energy prices, and rising labor costs combine to test suppliers, retailers, and consumers. This has led to consumers seeking value, whether that means in comparison to the price of dining out or in comparison to routine grocery items, with private label options seeing surges across all categories. Additionally, food shoppers are increasingly placing sustainability at a higher priority level again, with plant-based options, clean labels, sustainable supply chains, and recyclable and reduced packaging as key trends. Furthermore, shoppers are presenting preferences with contradictions as they are looking for indulgence, but better-for-you versions, and chef-inspired menus, but with convenient preparation.

With a focus on growth opportunities and “what’s next” - along with bringing decades of food and beverage market perspective and analysis to the table - U.S. Food Market Outlook 2023: Inflation, Sustainability, Convenience, & Other Food Trends is packed with actionable insights about consumer trends, behavior, and motivations. This report delivers predictions and recommendations designed to guide retailers, service providers, wholesalers, food processors, packaging firms, and investors in making business decisions about the food market.

Scope

Combining the publisher's extensive monitoring of the food and beverage market with proprietary surveys, U.S. Food Market Outlook 2023 is the go-to source for a complete understanding of the U.S. food market. This broad-based report evaluates current trends and future directions for marketing and retailing, along with consumer patterns across the food market.

U.S. Food Market Outlook 2023 examines product availability; surveys retail channel trends; and analyzes consumer trends and motivations. This report focuses on the market for selected food products sold to consumers in the United States through retail channels. All retail channels of distribution are covered in market sizing and discussion, including supermarkets and grocery stores, mass merchandisers and supercenters, warehouse clubs, natural food stores, convenience stores, drugstores, dollar stores, and direct-sales channels including online. Market size data and projections are provided at the retail sales level.

Report Methodology

The information contained in U.S. Food Market Outlook 2023 was developed from a variety of primary and secondary research sources.

Primary research includes interviews with food and beverage market experts and participation in and attendance at food industry events. Primary research also includes national online consumer polls of U.S. adult consumers (age 18+) conducted on an ongoing basis by the publisher to analyze purchasing patterns and attitudes with regard to food and beverage preferences. Supplementing the publisher's exclusive survey is an extensive analysis of MRI-Simmons’ National Consumer Study, which is based on approximately 25,000 adult respondents surveyed annually.

Secondary research entailed gathering data from relevant trade, business, and government sources, as well as company promotional literature and annual reports.

This report contains dozens of numerical tables and charts, as well as numerous product photographs. Our estimates of market size and company performance are based on various sources including reported revenues of product manufacturers and retailers, relevant publications, and other market research sources. The analysis in this report also draws, as a background source, on retail sales tracking data from mass market and specialty channels.

Table of Contents

Executive Summary
  • Food Retail Sales Forecast
  • Food Trends
  • Private Label Surges Due to Inflation
  • CEA-Indoor Farming
  • Plant-Based Alternatives
  • Non-Plant-Based Alternatives
  • Mindful Indulgence
  • Convenient At-Home Restaurant Quality
  • Scope
  • Methodology
COVID-19 Effects on Consumers
  • Highlights
  • Concerns about COVID-19 Exposure Remain
  • Table | Coronavirus Health Concerns: "I am concerned about the…", 2020-2022 (% of respondents)
  • Impact on Food
  • Concerns About High Prices and Shortages
  • Table | Concerns about Rising Prices by Product Category, 2021, 2022 (percent of consumers)
  • Table | Concerns about Rising Food Prices, 2021-2022 (percent of consumers)
  • Concerns About Shortages
  • Table | Concerns about Shortages by Selected Product Category, 2021-2022 (percent of consumers)
  • Table | Consumer Concerns about Food Shortages, 2021-2022 (percent of consumers)
  • Consumers Still Stockpiling
  • Table | "If a food item is on sale, I buy multiple units to stock up." Agree Completely, 2012-2022
  • Table | Separate freezer owned or purchased in last 12 months, 2012-2022 (percent of US households)
  • Eating Patterns: What & When
  • Eating Comfort Foods
  • Eating Fresh Produce
  • Eating Processed Foods
  • Eating Snacks & Treats
  • Pandemic-Era Eating Frequency
  • Home Cooking Remains Relatively High
  • Table | Home Cooking Behaviors, Agree Completely, 2012-2022 (percent of US adults)
  • Table | Food Prepared From Scratch In Last 6 Months, 2012-2022 (percent of US households)
  • Boosted Online Grocery Shopping Activity Continuing Through 2022
  • Activity Spiked in 2020 during the Early Part of the Pandemic
  • Table | Coronavirus Food Purchase Habits: "Because of the coronavirus, I am…", 2020-2021 (percent of consumers)
  • Many Have Continued Ordering More Groceries Online in 2021 and 2022
  • Use of Meal Kit Delivery Services
  • Effects on Work Have Continued in 2021 and 2022 and Continue in 2023
  • Table | "Are You Set Up to Do Your Usual Paid Work From Home - Whether Ordinarily, Part-Time, or When Necessasary
  • Changes in Work From Home Frequency
  • Table | Changes in Work From Home Frequency, 2020 & 2022
Overview
  • Food Retail Sales Forecast
  • Table | US Retail Dollar Sales by Top Food Categories, 2017, 2022-2027P (million dollars and percent)
  • Table | US Retail Dollar Sales by Top Food Categories, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022 (million dollars and percent)
  • Table | US Retail Dollar and Volume Sales by Top Food Categories, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022 (percent change)
  • Distribution Trends
  • E-Commerce and Grocery Delivery
  • Table | Purchased Groceries Over Internet in Last 30 days, 2012-2022 (percent of US adults)
  • Faster Home Delivery
  • Autonomous Delivery
  • Drone Delivery
  • In-Home Delivery
  • On-Demand Delivery
  • Instacart Helps Retailers Drive Sales, Save Customers Money
  • Snacking
  • Frequency of Snacking and Reasons for Snacking
  • Snacking Highest in the Afternoon
  • Fruit Most Preferred in Morning, Savory/Salty and Sweet Treats at Night
  • Home Meal Kits
  • Home Meal Delivery
Food Trends
  • CEA-Indoor Farming
  • Plant-Based Alternatives
  • One-Fourth of Consumers Claim to Primarily Follow a Flexitarian Diet in 2022
  • Table | Prevalence of Plant-Forward Eating Habits/Diet Control, 2019 - 2022 (percent of consumers)
  • Plant-Based Meat and Poultry Alternatives
  • Blends
  • Plant-Based, Dairy-Free Alternatives
  • Non-Plant-Based Alternatives
  • Cultivated Meat Approaches Commercialization in US
  • Other Alternatives
  • Animal-Free Dairy
  • Embrace ESG
  • Packaging
  • Healthier-For-You
  • Table | "I Buy Food Labeled As…", 2017-2022 (percent of US adults)
  • Natural
  • Reduced or Zero Sugar
  • Table | Preferences for Sweetener Types, 2022 (percent of consumers)
  • Incorporating Vegetables
  • Table | Consumption Rates for Fresh Vegetables, 2012-2022 (percent of US households)
  • Diet-Friendly
  • Table | "Are you familiar with (heard of it and know what is involved in following it) any of the following
  • Mindful Indulgence
  • Excite the Senses
  • Kid-Focused
  • Convenient At-Home Restaurant Quality
  • Partnerships Advantageous
  • Private Label Surges Due to Inflation
  • Table | Selected Private Label Department Dollar Sales Growth, 2021-2022 (percent change)
  • Table | Consumption Rates in last 6 months for Selected Store Brand Foods, 2012-2022 (percent of US households)
Cereal
  • Sales Outlook
  • Market Increasing to Over $13 Billion in 2027
  • Table | U. S. Cereal Market Retail Dollar Sales, 2017-2027 (in millions of dollars, millions of pounds)
  • Category Sales
  • Table | U. S. Cereal Market Retail Dollar Sales: By Category, 2016-2027 (in millions of dollars and percent
  • Key Opportunities
Chocolate Candy
  • Sales Outlook
  • Market Increases to Over $35 Billion in 2027
  • Table | U. S. Chocolate Candy Market Retail Dollar Sales, 2017-2027 (in millions of dollars, millions of pounds)
  • Segment Sales
  • Table | U. S. Chocolate Candy Market Retail Dollar Sales: By Category, 2016-2027 (in millions of dollars)
  • Key Opportunities
Cookies
  • Sales Outlook
  • Market to Approach $18 Billion in 2027
  • Table | U. S. Cookies Market Retail Dollar Sales, 2017-2027 (in millions of dollars, millions of pounds)
  • Key Opportunities
  • Fresh Bread
  • Sales Outlook
  • Market Increasing to Over $22 Billion in 2027
  • Table | U. S. Fresh Bread Market Retail Dollar Sales, 2017-2027 (in millions of dollars, millions of pounds)
  • Segment Sales
  • Table | U. S. Fresh Bread Market Retail Dollar Sales: By Category, 2016-2027 (in millions of dollars)
  • Key Opportunities
Fresh Packaged Salads
  • Sales Outlook
  • Fresh Packaged Salad Sales Increasing to Over $9 Billion in 2027
  • Table | US Fresh Packaged Salads Retail Sales, 2017-2027 (million dollars, million pounds, and percent change)
  • Segment Sales
  • Consumer Insights
  • Packaged Salad Consumption Still Much Higher Than Pre-Pandemic Levels
  • Table | Consumption Rates for Packaged Fresh Salad and Fresh Produce, 2012-2022 (percent of households)
  • Packaged Salad Eaters Don't Consume That Often
  • Table | Packages of Packaged Fresh Salad Eaten in Last 30 Days, 2012-2022 (percent of US households)
  • Key Opportunities
  • CEA-Indoor Farming
  • Convenient Restaurant Quality
  • Embrace ESG
Frozen Dinners/Entrees
  • Sales Outlook
  • Market Increasing to $17.4 Billion in 2027
  • Table | U. S. Frozen Dinners/Entrees Market Retail Dollar Sales, 2017-2027 (in millions of dollars, millions of pounds)
  • Category Sales
  • Table | U. S. Frozen Dinners/Entrees Market Retail Dollar Sales: By Segment, 2016-2027 (in millions of dollars, millions of pounds)
  • Key Opportunities
Frozen Pizza
  • Sales Outlook
  • Market to Exceed $9 Billion in 2027
  • Table | US Frozen Pizza Retail Sales, 2017-2027 (million dollars, million pounds, and percent)
  • Consumer Insights
  • Only About Half of US Households Eat Frozen Pizza
  • Table | Consumption Rates for Frozen Pizza, 2012-2022 (percent of US households)
  • Frozen Pizzas Eaters Don't Eat Them That Often
  • Table | Packages of Frozen Pizza Eaten in Last 30 Days, 2012-2022 (percent of US households that eat frozen pizza)
  • Key Opportunities
  • Restaurant Quality at Home
  • Mindful Indulgence
  • Ultra-Indulgent
  • Excite the Senses
Ice Cream and Frozen Novelties
  • Sales Outlook
  • Market to Approach $19 Billion in 2027
  • Table | US Ice Cream and Frozen Novelties Retail Sales, 2017-2027 (million dollars, million units, and percent change)
  • Category and Segment Sales
  • Table | US Ice Cream and Frozen Novelties Retail Dollar Sales: By Category & Segment, 2016-2027 (in millions of dollars, millions of pounds)
  • Consumer Insights
  • Consumption Data at Odds With Sales Data
  • Table | Consumption Rates for Ice Cream, Novelties, and Packaged Frozen Yogurt, 2016-2022 (percent of US households that eat ice cream)
  • Regular (Full-Fat) Ice Cream Overwhelmingly Preferred
  • Table | Types of Ice Cream/Gelato/Sherbet Eaten Most Often, 2016-2022 (percent of US households that eat ice cream)
  • Ice Cream/Gelato/Sherbet Eaters Don't Consume Much
  • Table | Pints of Ice Cream/Gelato/Sherbet Eaten in Last 7 Days, 2016-2022 (percent of US households that eat ice cream)
  • Key Opportunities
  • Excite the Senses
  • Reimagine Classics and Nostalgia
  • Mindful Indulgence
  • Dairy Alternatives
  • Animal-Free Dairy
  • Embrace ESG
Meal & Snack Bars
  • Sales Outlook
  • Market at $10 Billion in 2027
  • Table | US Meal & Snack Bars Retail Sales, 2017-2027 (million dollars, million pounds, and percent change)
  • Category Sales
  • Table | US Meal & Snack Bars Retail Sales: By Category, 2016-2027 (million dollars)
  • Consumer Insights
  • Some Consumption Data at Odds With Sales Data
  • Table | Consumption Rates for Breakfast/Cereal/Granola & Nutrition/Energy Bars, 2012-2022 (percent of households that eat Breakfast/Cereal/Granola & Nutrition/Energy Bars)
  • Heaviest-Consuming Snack Bar Group Expands
  • Table | Number of Breakfast/Cereal/Granola Bars Eaten in Last 30 Days, 2012-2022 (percent of households that eat Breakfast/Cereal/Granola & Nutrition/Energy Bars)
  • Key Brand Differences
  • Table | Consumption Rates for Selected Brands of Breakfast/Cereal/Granola & Nutrition/Energy Bars, 2012-2022
  • Key Opportunities
  • Mindful Indulgence
  • Healthier-For-You
  • Excite the Senses
  • Kid-Focused
  • Embrace ESG
Meat and Poultry
  • Sales Outlook
  • Market to Exceed $145 Billion in 2027
  • Table | US Meat and Poultry Retail Sales, 2017-2027 (million dollars, million pounds, and percent change)
  • Category and Segment Sales
  • Table | US Meat and Poultry Market Retail Dollar Sales: By Category/Segment, 2016-2027 (million dollars)
  • Consumer Insights
  • Consumption Down in 2022
  • Table | Consumption Rates for Meat & Poultry, 2012-2022 (percent of households)
  • Fresh Overwhelming Preferred Over Frozen
  • Table | Consumption Rates for Fresh versus Frozen Meat & Poultry, 2012-2022 (percent of households that eats fresh meat and poultry)
  • Trouble Holding Bacon and Sausage Pandemic Gains
  • Table | Consumption Rates for Selected Processed Meats and Poultry, 2012-2022 (percent of households)
  • Key Opportunities
  • Convenient Restaurant Quality
  • Excite the Senses
  • Plant-based Alternatives
  • Blends
  • Cultivated Meat Approaches Commercialization in US
  • Table | Activities of Selected Cultivated Meat Developers
  • Other Alternatives
  • Embrace ESG
Natural and Specialty Cheese
  • Sales Outlook
  • Market Increasing to over $23 Billion in 2027
  • Table | U. S. Natural and Specialty Cheese Market Retail Dollar Sales, 2017-2027 (in millions of dollars, millions of pounds)
  • Category Sales
  • Table | U. S. Natural and Specialty Cheese Market Retail Dollar Sales: By Category, 2016-2027 (in millions of dollars, millions of pounds)
  • Key Opportunities
Salty Snacks
  • Sales Outlook
  • Market to Exceed $48 Billion in 2027
  • Table | U.S. Salty Snacks Retail Sales, 2017-2027 (million dollars, million pounds, and percent change)
  • Segment Sales
  • Table | U.S. Salty Snack Market Retail Dollar Sales: By Category, 2016-2027 (million dollars and percent change)
  • Consumer Insights
  • Other Snacks Gain but Potato Chips Still Most Preferred
  • Table | Consumption Rates for Selected Salty Snacks, 2012-2022 (percent of households)
  • Chip Eaters Don't Consume Much
  • Table | Bags of Potato Chips Eaten in Last 30 Days, 2012-2022 (percent of U.S. households that eat potato chips)
  • Table | Bags of Corn/Tortilla/Other Chips & Cheese Snacks Eaten in Last 30 Days, 2012-2022 (percent of U.S.
  • Key Opportunities
  • Excite the Senses
  • Mindful Indulgence
  • Embrace ESG
Soup
  • Sales Outlook
  • Market Increasing to Nearly $12 Billion in 2027
  • Table | U. S. Soup Market Retail Dollar Sales, 2017-2027 (in millions of dollars, millions of pounds/16oz.
  • Key Opportunities
Yogurt
  • Sales Outlook
  • Market Over $12 Billion in 2027
  • Table | U.S. Yogurt Retail Sales, 2017-2027 (million dollars, million pints, and percent change)
  • Category Sales
  • Table | U.S. Yogurt Retail Dollar Sales: By Category, 2016-2027 (million dollars)
  • Consumer Insights
  • Yogurt Consumption Relatively Steady After Pandemic Boost
  • Table | Consumption Rates for Yogurt, 2012-2022 (percent of U.S. households)
  • Steady Increase in Regular (Full-Fat) Yogurt Consumption
  • Table | Types of Yogurt Eaten Most Often, 2012-2022 (percent of U.S. households that eat yogurt)
  • Yogurt with Fruit Most Popular But Declining
  • Table | Kinds of Yogurt Eaten Most Often, 2012-2022 (percent of U.S. households that eat yogurt)
  • Greatest Growth from Those Eating the Least
  • Table | Containers of Yogurt Eaten in Last 7 Days, 2012-2022 (percent of US households that eat yogurt)
  • Key Opportunities
  • Healthier-For-You
  • Dairy-Free and Plant-Based Alternatives
  • Increase Kids' Consumption
  • Excite the Senses
  • Continue Leveraging Snacking Trend
  • Embrace ESG