The business environment in Developed Asia (Japan, South Korea, and Singapore) continues to be uncertain despite coordinated policy efforts and government stimuli to foster economic revival. The next few months are going to crucial for the region, as countries try to overcome the pandemic. This macroeconomic outlook for Developed Asia until 2026 will enable clients to develop scenario-based macroeconomic growth projections, to gain deeper insights into the income, trade, investment, and demographic conditions in Japan, Korea, and Singapore. The research has been divided into three key sections: the overall economic outlook, demographic social outlook, and investment environment outlook.
The GDP growth analysis suggests that Japan and Singapore will register growth of 10.0% or more in 2021, primarily driven by a low 2020 base. The study also undertakes scenario-driven assumptions for the 2021-2022 GDP growth forecast, on the basis of vaccination coverage, further outbreaks of COVID-19, government support measures, and resultant recovery paths. Under an accelerated vaccine deployment scenario Asian countries will potentially reach a full GDP recovery in 2021 itself; however, under a pessimistic scenario, the recovery of these economies would stretch out to late 2022 or early 2023. The growth prospects for 2023-2025 are, however, more positive and stable for all countries.
Fiscal tightening, one of the key priorities of governments in this region may lead to restrained income in the post-pandemic period. This notwithstanding, economic recovery, gradual reduction in the unemployment rate, and easy monetary policy will strengthen the long-term per capita income outlook. Structural reforms are also a major focus area for governments, as is evident from region-wide digital transformation push. Governments in this region are also looking to ease up restrictions on foreign investment, the most recent being Japan.
Though depopulation and the high old-age dependency ratio may drag down growth of the working population, favorable government policies will counter the decline.
This research takes a look into the national vision, macroeconomic policy shift, new trade deals, and industries promoted since the onset of the pandemic. Foreign and domestic direct investors should look out for new government incentives that support economic recovery. Some of the key industries that have received a boost from the pandemic include but are not limited to high-technology industries driven by digital transformation; green industries, such as renewable energy, and electric and cleaner engine model vehicles; smart manufacturing; and healthcare.
A significant part of the research also focuses on identifying key growth opportunities despite the ongoing volatility. Shifts in global supply chains, one of the top consequences of the pandemic, is set to open up newer opportunities in developed Asia. With China’s position as a go-to manufacturing location weakening, and producers are looking to diversify, other governments in the region - primarily Japan and South Korea - are incentivizing companies that reshore or nearshore manufacturing in their countries. The emergence of newer growth hubs, away from capitals, creates a favorable business environment for companies in sectors, such as renewables, R&D, tourism, and smart city infrastructure.
Key Issues Addressed
- What is the GDP growth outlook for Developed Asia under a baseline, optimistic, and pessimistic scenario?
- Which are the sectors the government reform agenda is focused on?
- What are the sectors that are likely to gain post-pandemic momentum across the region?
- What are the top 10 provinces/prefectures in Japan and Korea that will contribute to the largest share in GDP and population by 2026?
- What are some of the key post-pandemic growth opportunities that businesses could tap into?
- What are the national visions and their implications for businesses?
- How are governments changing their macroeconomic policies to address the pandemic-induced disruption?
- What are the opportunities for domestic exporters from the latest free trade agreements signed by developed Asian governments?
- What are the new incentives offered to foreign investments?
1. Strategic Imperatives
Why Is It Increasingly Difficult to Grow?
The Strategic Imperative 8™
Impact of the Top Three Strategic Imperatives on the Macroeconomic Environment in Developed Asia
Growth Opportunities Fuel the Growth Pipeline Engine™
2. Growth Opportunity Analysis - Macroeconomic Environment in Developed Asia
Macroeconomic Environment, Developed Asia
Key Macroeconomic Metrics for Japan
Key Macroeconomic Metrics for South Korea
Key Macroeconomic Metrics for Singapore
Growth Drivers for the Macroeconomic Environment in Developed Asia
Growth Restraints for the Macroeconomic Environment in Developed Asia
Forecast Assumptions for 2021-2022 GDP Growth
Economic Trends and Predictions for Developed Asia
3. Economic Outlook for Developed Asia
Quarterly GDP Growth (2021-2022), Japan
Quarterly GDP Growth (2021-2022), South Korea
Quarterly GDP Growth (2021-2022), Singapore
Annual GDP Growth, Developed Asia
Structure of the Economy, Developed Asia
Per Capita Income Outlook, Developed Asia
Income and Population Analysis by Prefecture, Japan
Income and Population Analysis by Province, South Korea
National Vision and Implications, Japan
National Vision and Implications, South Korea
National Vision and Implications, Singapore
Macroeconomic Policy Shifts in the Next Five Years, Developed Asia
Recent Free Trade Agreements (FTAs), Developed Asia
Digital Economy Trends, Developed Asia
4. Demographic and Social Outlook for Developed Asia
Population Age Structure Analysis, Developed Asia
Ageing Population Implications, Developed Asia
Unemployment and Wages Outlook, Developed Asia
Labor Market Outlook, Developed Asia
5. Investment Environment Outlook for Developed Asia
Latest Investment Promotion Measures, Japan
Latest Investment Promotion Measures, South Korea
Latest Investment Promotion Measures, Singapore
Promoted Industries Going Forward, Japan
Promoted Industries Going Forward, South Korea
Promoted Industries Going Forward, Singapore
FDI Restrictiveness Comparison, Developed Asia
6. Growth Opportunity Universe
Growth Opportunity 1 - Telecommuting and Smart City Technology Opportunities for Emerging Suburban Growth Hubs
Growth Opportunity 2 - Green Plans and Initiatives for a Carbon-neutral Society
Growth Opportunity 3 - Production Capacity Expansion for Supply-chain Shifts
List of Exhibits