Alfalfa Hay Market - Forecasts from 2022 to 2027

The alfalfa hay market is estimated to be valued at US$13,374.079 million in 2020. Presently, the global agriculture industry is tasked with ensuring food security more than ever. The world population is expected to grow by 2.3 billion people, between 2009 and 2050. Population growth is expected to be driven by developments in the developing nations, with the fastest rate of growth estimated for sub-Saharan Africa at +114%, followed by the slowest i.e., East and South East Asia at +13 %. Further, urban areas are estimated to account for 70% of the world population in 2050, from 49% at present. Also, the per capita of income in 2050 is projected to be a multiple of today’s levels. As noted by the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), feeding a world population of 9.1 billion people in 2050 would require raising overall food production by some 70 % between 2005/07 and 2050. Encompassed with the projection is the estimated growth of demand for meat and dairy products, fish, and aquaculture products contributing to the growth of livestock farming which already constitutes 30% of agricultural GDP in the developing world. The anticipated increase in purchasing power in developing nations is expected to result in a change in dietary preferences, which would be increasingly oriented towards animal source foods and away from staple foods of vegetal origin.

Moreover, of the projected global growth, overall meat consumption is expected to account for 82% of it. The APAC region, led by China and the LACs with Brazil leading the region are estimated to contribute to most of the expansion, which is expected to surpass the growth in OECD countries in the next decade. Capacity building, improved agriculture, increasing integration of modernized, and intensive production technologies are expected to catalyze the growth in these countries. The poultry sector is a testimony to the aforesaid when it comes to Brazil, China, and India, as well as with the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) countries, to a certain extent. Further, it should be noted that for approximately half of the world's farmers, livestock is a source of organic fertilizer enabling them to respond to the growing demand for organically produced food products. Therefore, these estimations suggest an unrestrained demand for both food and feed. Despite the bottlenecks caused by COVID 19, the international national meat trade is expected to grow. Besides, it is pertinent to note that alfalfa is a five-year cycle crop. Every year, 20 % of the alfalfa is pulled out and replanted as a part of the crop’s normal cycle. Approximately half of the alfalfa in Spain is reportedly planted during the fall, with the remaining half planted in the spring. The domestic dairy herd of Spain is the primary consumer of Spain’s dried fodder, along with other ruminants like sheep and goats. Moreover, Spain is the world’s third-largest fodder exporter after the United States and Australia. Spain is a net exporter of fodder, with exports largely exceeding imports, which are limited to a few strategic exchanges with neighbouring countries. During 2019-20, 75 % of the dried alfalfa produced in Spain was exported, slightly below the levels achieved in the previous season, as dry conditions reducing pasture availability boosted domestic demand. However, the bulk of Spanish dried alfalfa exports is concentrated on only a handful of market destinations. The United Arab Emirates, which absorbed over 45 % of the exports in MY2019/20, is Spain’s largest market, followed by China, which accounted for 24 %, from last year’s 20 %.

The APAC region is poised to hold a substantial share in the alfalfa hay market, which is expected to drive market growth. Much of the trade momentum is expected to be contributed by China, with imports rising by 24%. Further, the global output of poultry meat is forecasted to reach 137 million tons in 2020, which is 2.4% more than what was registered in 2019. In China, poultry meat production is expected to expand, which is expected to be sustained by increased demand due to continuous high pig meat prices. Furthermore, global milk production is expected to increase by 0.8 percent to 859 million tonnes in 2020, owing to production expansions in Asia and North America, as well as moderate increases in Central America and the Caribbean, Africa, and Oceania. Alfalfa hay has received nationwide recognition, when it comes to China’s dairy sector, with greater potential in China’s swine sector. In the view above, a major facilitator of alfalfa hay market growth is the U.S.- China Economic and Trade Agreement, among others, which was signed on January 15, 2020, leading to expanded access for several U.S. hay products, that are inclusive of but not limited to, alfalfa hay pellets and cubes. The latter has been evidenced by the publication of a notice by China’s General Administration of Customs (GACC), granting market access for U.S. alfalfa hay pellets and cubes. Conversely, in 2018, the export growth in Asia was with regards to Spanish fodder sales, which shifted to Asia during 2018 when China’s retaliatory tariffs affected alfalfa produced in the U.S. which reportedly triggered a threefold increase in the export of Spanish fodder to China. Aside from the limited growth in domestic production of high-quality alfalfa, one of the key determinants of the region's alfalfa market growth is the rapid increase in the number of large dairy farms, which has resulted from the increasing number of Chinese farmers, particularly young men and women, who have moved to urban areas for jobs. Labor has become a more restrictive factor in rural areas, and the decrease in labour availability and increase in labour cost has hampered growth. Also, the Ministry of Agriculture of the People's Republic of China has reportedly issued the “National Alfalfa Industry Development Plan (2016-2020)” with the rationale to boost the production of alfalfa. The objective is reportedly to achieve a production capacity of 5.4 million tons by 2020. The aforesaid is reportedly a part of the recent changes in agricultural policies of China, which are to promote the cultivation of fodder, among others. The growth of the organic segment of the alfalfa market is also expected during the next few years. This is particularly due to the consumption of high-quality feed that results in the production of quality and safe products of animal origin. Further, in the EU region Regulation (EC) No 2018/848 has been reported to come into force on January 2021 with the rationale of ensuring the integrity of organic production at all stages of the production, processing, and distribution processes of animal feed, among others.

COVID-19 Impact:

In the early months of the pandemic, agricultural supply networks and markets experienced both supply and demand disruptions. Short-term output was lowered due to supply disruptions caused by worker illness, the necessity for social distancing, and the installation of protective systems in production and distribution facilities. Demand shocks had a major impact on how products were delivered to customers. Under social distance, consumption away from home plummeted, while retail grocery demand soared, a trend that persisted as the epidemic progressed. Milk demand switched toward at-home use, which had a significant impact on the dairy industry. Dairy prices in the United States dipped below 2018 levels in March-May 2020, after rising over 30% in 2019. Transportation and import limitations hampered the supply of Alfalfa Hay. COVID-19 began in China, and the majority of the world, including the United States (the world's largest exporter of Alfalfa Hay), is engaged in trade wars with China, imposing restrictions on Chinese goods, resulting in the world's largest population not receiving Alfalfa Hay and other goods from the United States. However, agri-food supply networks responded and supply interruptions subsided faster than some had anticipated.

Key developments:

• Al Dahra Holding, based in Abu Dhabi, has agreed to supply crops to AJD Agro Ltd, a Bulgarian agribusiness enterprise, in 2020. The agreement covers the cultivation and supply of key crops and feed, such as alfalfa, among other things.
• Green Praire introduced a new product called green curd, which is an air-dried hay product, in January 2020. The business has been increasing its product portfolio as it anticipates future growth.

Anderson Hay & Grain Inc. has formed a joint venture with Agitha Group, the UAE's industry leader in animal feed. The company was founded with the goal of better serving customers in the UAE and the Gulf Cooperation Council. The items will be imported from Anderson premium forage products and supplied under the Agrivita Marabe brand in the UAE and the Gulf Cooperation Council.

Market Segmentation

By Product Type

• Bales
• Cubes
• Pellets

By Application Type

• Dairy/Meat animal feed
• Horse Feed
• Poultry Feed

By Distribution Channel

• Online
• Offline

By Geography

• North America
• USA
• Canada
• Mexico
• South America
• Brazil
• Argentina
• Europe
• Germany
• UK
• France
• Middle East and Africa
• Egypt
• Saudi Arabia
• South Africa
• Asia Pacific
• Japan
• China
• South Korea
• India
• Indonesia
• Australia
• Thailand