The Liscio Report on The Economy is the professional traders' secret weapon. Our real time proprietary research based on state witholding and sales tax receipts gives our clients a unique insight into the state of the US economy.
Managed by Philippa Dunne and Doug Henwood, The Liscio Report is an independent research outfit located in New York City. In addition to our two proprietary surveys of state withholding and sales tax receipts, we do our own macro-economic research, and, unlike many other research-providers, do not manage money: we are beholden to no one but our subscribers and ourselves.
Philippa Dunne and Douglas Henwood were John Liscio's closest associates and, since John's untimely death in 2000, are honored to be carrying on the research techniques he pioneered when he established The Liscio Report on the international scene in 1992.
We are known for our meticulous dissection of federal data, for pointing out technical anomalies glossed over in the mainstream press (and related debunking of market rumors), and for ferreting out market-moving shifts in the economic landscape as they develop, getting the news out to our readers before the mainstream media catches on. We also grill the highly informed senior tax officials who participate in our surveys on their favored indicators, like diesel-fuel consumption, and collect their thoughts on emerging economic trends for our subscribers. They are watching the cash flow into the state coffers so they know what they are talking about.
Look for us in Barron’s, the FT, Reuters; on MSNBC and Bloomberg; and around the web.
At its core, The Liscio Report provides rates and currency traders with a proprietary assessment of withholding and sales tax receipt data collected from tax authorities in the 25 largest states. This proven approach produces highly accurate forecasts of the BLS’s Employment Report and Census’s Advance Retail Sales print.
The TLR Team goes well beyond monthly forecasting and conducts its own proprietary macroeconomic research to flag market-moving trends.
We meticulously dissect Federal data to uncover technical anomalies and ferret out the true backstory. TLR readers learn of our discoveries well before the mainstream media catches on.
Credit Crisis TLR 4/11/08 “This drama has more false resolutions than a horror flick. But as we’ve pointed out before, the credit crisis has only begun to make itself apparent in the real-world credit figures.”
Commodities Collapse TLR 7/11/08 “Oil prices, a little spill or back to the future?...In the popular imagination, oil demand has been running well ahead of supply, when, in fact, it hasn’t.”
WDI data with forecasts and related analysis released early in the morning on the day prior to the nonfarm payroll, analysis of the NFP, and regional and state employment trends. SDI with forecast and related analysis early in the morning on the day prior to the Advance Retail Sales report.
Commentary and analysis of the The Fed’s Flow of Funds report, Quarterly Census of Employent and Wages, Business Employment Dynamics and other labor market indicators.
Subscribers to the Liscio Report receive, via email, the details of our monthly surveys of state withheld tax receipts and state sales tax receipts along with our corresponding forecasts for the Bureau of Labor Statistics' monthly NonFarm Payroll release and the Census's monthly Advance Retail Sales print, each sent out the day before the release itself.
Also included in our subscription are our well-regarded breakdowns of the quarterly Flow of Funds release and our analyses of long-term trends, comments on all manner of monthly and quarterly employment back-up reports, like the QCEW, Business Employment Dynamics and State and Local Employment trends, as well as email alerts whenever we identify a crucial market-moving trend or anomaly.
The Liscio Report on the Economy is published about 4 times a month.
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Most Recent Survey of December withheld tax receipts: Steady receipts, but why labor force withdrawal? 01/09/14
Survey of December sales tax receipts: Sales collections dip; indexes at low end of healthy 01/13/14
Survey of January withheld tax receipts 02/06/14/
Survey of January sales tax receipts 02/12/14
Philippa Dunne was hired by John Liscio in 1996 to work on special projects, and in 1997 began full-time work as the "research department," specifically to develop her own set of states for our monthly surveys of state tax collections and to handle the burgeoning demands of The Liscio Report.
She graduated from University of California and has a Master's Degree from Wesleyan University. A musician by training, in previous lives she has performed widely and taught at a number of colleges and private institutions, done research and writing for the Office of Ray and Charles Eames in California and for the American Museum of Natural History in New York, and, true to her name, worked in stables exercising steeplechasers. She lives in New York with her husband and son.
While working toward his PhD in English at the University of Virginia, Doug returned to his earlier interest, the dismal science, and by the mid-1980s was regularly writing about the world economy with special attention to finance and the labor markets.
He caught the attention of John Liscio and as the "resident wise man" he crunched stats and analyzed them for John from the report's very first days. A widely recognized economic analyst, Doug has given talks at venues all over the U.S. and abroad as well. He's also frequently quoted or cited in the media, including newspapers ranging from The Asia Times to the New York Times to the Times of London.