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TLR on the Economy

  • ID: 686973
  • Newsletter
  • TLR II
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Subscribers to TLR on the Economy receive, via email, two detailed reports a month, one reporting the results of our proprietary survey of state withheld receipts, a discussion of what the trend means for the economy, related research and analysis, and a forecast of the upcoming Employment Report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics; the other does the same thing but is based on our survey of state-level sales tax receipts and includes a forecast of the upcoming Retail Sales print from Census.

In addition, we breakdown the releases themselves, and send updates whenever we spot a new trend developing. This could be in any of the secondary releases, or something noticed by a tax contact, or that we ferreted out in a regional paper or study. TLR is designed for active money managers and traders. We put everything in long-term context, have extensive databases, and look beyond the noise.

The proprietary surveys of state-level withholding and sales tax receipts are the backbone of its researcher’s work. We have long-standing relationships with senior revenue estimators in tax departments around the country, whose insights give us a unique take on the state of the US economy. Instead of looking at total personal income receipts, which include non-wage income, we track withheld taxes since they are levied on wages and bonuses, not capital gains and the like.

The researchers do their own macro-economic research, and, unlike many other research-providers, do not manage money: they are beholden to no one but their subscribers and ourselves.

Philippa Dunne and Douglas Henwood were John Liscio’s closest associates and, since John’s untimely death in 2000, are honored to be carrying on the research techniques he pioneered when he established The Liscio Report on the international scene in 1992.

They are known for their meticulous dissection of federal data, for pointing out technical anomalies glossed over in the mainstream press (and related debunking of market rumours), and for ferreting out market-moving shifts in the economic landscape as they develop, getting the news out to their readers before the mainstream media catches on. They also grill the highly informed senior tax officials who participate in our surveys on their favored indicators, like diesel-fuel consumption, and collect their thoughts on emerging economic trends for our subscribers. They are watching the cash flow into the state coffers so they know what they are talking about.

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Archive for September, 2018

Earth to Kevin Hassett: If you use that wrench…
State E&E = Job & Wage Growth Often Go Together
All About Jobs, 1: A Note to You
All About Jobs, 2: Five Uneasy Pieces
All About Jobs, 3: Should the Unemployment Rate Actually Be Lower?
All About Jobs, 4: Phantom Job Openings: Evidence from HWOL
All About Jobs, 5: Should the Quit Rate Be Higher?
All About Jobs, 6: What about Job Leavers and Wages?

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Philippa Dunne
Philippa Dunne was hired by John Liscio in 1996 to work on special projects, and in 1997 began full-time work as the "research department," specifically to develop her own set of states for our monthly surveys of state tax collections and to handle the burgeoning demands of The Liscio Report.

She graduated from University of California and has a Master's Degree from Wesleyan University. A musician by training, in previous lives she has performed widely and taught at a number of colleges and private institutions, done research and writing for the Office of Ray and Charles Eames in California and for the American Museum of Natural History in New York, and, true to her name, worked in stables exercising steeplechasers. She lives in New York with her husband and son.

Douglas Henwood
While working toward his PhD in English at the University of Virginia, Doug returned to his earlier interest, the dismal science, and by the mid-1980s was regularly writing about the world economy with special attention to finance and the labor markets.

He caught the attention of John Liscio and as the "resident wise man" he crunched stats and analyzed them for John from the report's very first days. A widely recognized economic analyst, Doug has given talks at venues all over the U.S. and abroad as well. He's also frequently quoted or cited in the media, including newspapers ranging from The Asia Times to the New York Times to the Times of London.

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