Macroeconomic Growth Opportunities in India, Forecast to 2030

The Likelihood of India Becoming the Fourth-largest Economy, with an 80% Middle-class Household Share, Creates Significant Business Potential

India is, no doubt, reeling from the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic, as is the rest of the world. Beyond the growth slowdown in 2020, India’s long-term macroeconomic prospects still remain bright.

This research examines India’s long-term macroeconomic outlook and sheds light on growth opportunities that Indian and global businesses could tap into.

While 2020 GDP growth is expected to slip to about 1%, India will nonetheless climb the economic ladder thereafter to become the 4th largest economy globally by 2030 in terms of GDP size. Accelerated structural reforms can also make India the fourth-largest economy. With metros near saturation, Tier II and Tier III Indian cities will play a pivotal role in shaping India’s growth and development in the next decade. More economic and business opportunities are expected to emerge from these cities over the next few years. In addition, businesses can also look forward to a booming Indian middle class which will strengthen the economy. The luxury market stands to benefit from the high growth of millionaires in India. Tier II and Tier III cities will see a rise in the demand for wealth-management services.

Companies operating in India can tap into opportunities tied to India’s population structure. The size and market share of the Indian working-age population are expected to grow, in contrast to a decline in China. Systematic training and education of India’s growing workforce would directly serve the growth of Indian businesses and industries. While the size of India’s elderly population is expected to grow by nearly 1.5 times between 2015 and 2030, there are major gaps in senior living real estate and geriatric care that companies could explore.

A large portion of the financial transactions in the Indian economy is expected to be digital in the next five years, enabling India to transition from its status as a cash-based economy to being a digital economy. As India leads social media usage, the rapid uptick in usage and relatively low social media penetration rates offer several business opportunities to social media companies.

Key Issues Addressed:

• What are some of the key growth opportunities that companies can look forward to beyond Covid-19?
• What will the Indian economy look like in 2030?
• How will state-wise GDP evolve in the next ten years?
• What is the outlook for India’s working-age population?
• How will India’s elderly population grow over the next ten years and what are the untapped opportunities?
• What will India’s middle-class market share look like in the next decade?
• Why should companies focus on Tier II and Tier III cities for growth and expansion?
• What is the outlook for start-up growth in India?
• What is the outlook for digital payments in India?